By Albatross
April 13 2004

Hartlepool United are edging ever closer to the playoffs, and best of all it's all in our hands. How many more points do we need to secure it though? Pools Online does a little forecasting to see if we'll all be looking at our diaries to fit a playoff campaign in once more.

Four games to go, and Pools fans are in dreamland. This time last season we had just about clinched automatic promotion; now we find ourselves, a division higher, in with every chance of securing a playoff place. It's fair to say that we're exceeding pretty much every prediction of how we would do on our return to Division 2.

There's plenty of competition though. Eight teams could still catch us in theory - and an admittedly highly unlikely series of results could even see us get into the automatic slots. Let's assess their position relative to Pools, and see what the final table might look like.

Queens Park Rangers

Current Position: 2^nd

Points ahead of Pools: 10

Games to play: 4

Pools would need to win every game and hope QPR lose theirs to overhaul them. Currently only Sheffield Wednesday of their opponents have nothing to play for, but with Stockport and Swindon at home, only their away game at Plymouth looks likely to end in defeat.

Predicted Points: 83 (+7 from current)

Bristol City

Current Position: 3^rd

Points ahead: 6

Games to play: 5

Some tough games ahead for Bristol, including games with Plymouth (tonight), Luton and Brighton. With their current form patchy, it’s difficult to see them overhauling QPR, but it’s also difficult to see Pools catching them.

Predicted Points: 78 (+6)

Swindon Town

Current Position: 4^th

Points ahead: 3

Games to play: 4

With games to come against Wycombe and Oldham, they will look to be secure in the playoffs before a tricky couple of games against QPR and Pools on the last day. If they do make sure of things in the next three games it could be to our advantage.

Predicted Points: 76 (+7)

Brighton & Hove Albion

Current Position: 5^th

Points ahead: 1

Games to play: 4

Their away record has cost them this season, but two winnable home games might just be enough.

Predicted Points: 74 (+7)

Port Vale

Current Position: 7^th

Points behind Pools: 3

Games to play: 4

Look to have an easy run-in, but inconsistency and poor away form may yet take their toll.

Predicted Points: 70 (+7)

AFC Bournemouth

Current Position: 8^th

Points behind: 5

Games to play: 5

With three of their last four away, Bournemouth need to pull something special out of the bag despite their game in hand. Their game with Luton next week may be crucial for both sides hopes.

Predicted Points: 69 (+8)

Luton Town

Current Position: 9^th

Points behind: 7

Games to play: 5

Home games against Bristol and Bournemouth next week will in all probability decide their season. Realistically they need to win at least four games to have any chance of getting into the playoffs – a big ask.

Predicted Points: 68 (+9)

Barnsley

Current Position: 10^th

Points behind: 7

Games to play: 4

They’re running out of games, and need to win all their remaining matches – including against Bristol and at Tranmere – to have any hope. It will probably be too much to ask.

Predicted Points: 67 (+8)

Tranmere Rovers

Current Position: 11^th

Points behind: 8

Games to play: 4

In theory not quite out of it, but with matches against three other playoff contenders – two away – in practice it’s game over. Even four wins might not be enough, although they are in form with five wins in six games.

Predicted Points: 66 (+8)

Blackpool

Current Position: 12^th

Points behind: 10

Games to play: 4

They would need to win all four games and hope that it’d be enough – and one win for Pools would end their season. Mathematical chance only.

Predicted Points: 63 (+7)

Colchester United

Current Position: 13^th

Points behind: 11

Games to play: 4

Again, a mathematical chance only.

Predicted Points: 62 (+7)

Wrexham

Current Position: 14^th

Points behind: 11

Games to play: 5

Could still potentially make 70 points – but three defeats in a row and three away games to play heavily loads the dice against them. No chance.

Predicted Points: 60 (+5)

Hartlepool United

Current Position: 6^th

Games to play: 4

Our next two games look eminently winnable – and with Plymouth possibly having the title by the time they come to the Vic, we could already be certain of a place by the time we visit Swindon.

Predicted Points: 74 (+8)

If I’m right, then in effect the position teams are in now will be the position they’re in at the end of the season. Pools could well secure a playoff place with a draw against Plymouth, with teams behind us taking points off each other. We’d then face Bristol City in the Playoff Semi.

First of all though we have to win our next two games. Notts County don’t look capable of troubling us on current form, and Rushden are on recent results the worst side in the division – but neither is likely to sit back and let us steamroller them. Pools however have the motivation there in front of them: it’s in their hands, the right results would make whatever anyone else does irrelevant, and the likes of Chris Kamara would be left with enough egg on their faces to make the world’s biggest omelette. Let’s get behind the lads and cheer them on to the end of yet another successful season.