By Albatross
March 7 2003

After the defeat at Lincoln in midweek, this game is even more vital for Hartlepool United than it was before. Three points are essential if we are to maintain our lead at the top. Bury are in need of the points as well though, and shouldn't make it easy for Pools. Bury travel to the Vic in fourth place, but on the back of a poor performance and home defeat to Bristol Rovers on Tuesday. However, they should not be underestimated, particularly when you look at their away form.

Bury have the 2nd best away record of any team in Div3 this season, and that more than anything explains how they have maintained their promotion and playoff ambitions. They have tended to play 3-5-2, and the chances are that Preece will deploy this formation again tonight. The fans are complaining somewhat that this is too defensive at home; away though, where the onus is on the home team to attack, it has proved more successful. Their home record is poor for a team in their position; 26 points from 17 games - but they have gained 27 from 17 away from home and also scored more goals. With Pools having had a bad result on Tuesday, the Shakers will fancy their chances.

Recent form is to say the least mixed. Their last eight games have seen them lose three times - away at Kiddy, and at home to Orient and Bristol Rovers - and win just two, but those two wins came at Cambridge and at home to Bournemouth. Their last five away have seen them win two and draw two.

When we played at Gigg Lane in September, the match finished 1-1 with Adam Boyd equalising in the second half. Bury's scorer that day was Pawel Abbott - but he has long since gone back to Preston and Bury have struggled a little to work out who to play up front with leading scorer Jon Newby (11 goals). The most recent partner for Newby has been former Crewe striker Colin Cramb, who joined on a month-to-month deal in January after leaving Fortuna Sittard in Holland. Cramb struck up a good partnership with Newby when on loan a couple of years ago, and although he has scored twice for the Shakers, the Bury Official site reports that he may well miss out tonight after being substituted on Tuesday. Possible replacements are 17 year old David Nugent - scorer of four goals this season - and player-boss Andy Preece. Newby himself though is out of sorts, and hasn't found the net in 2003.

One person who definately won't be playing for Bury tonight is midfielder Chris Billy. Billy picked up a knee injury against Bristol, and hasn't travelled with the squad.

For Pools, once again the big question is who will play up front. The last goal scored by a Pools Striker from open play was Boyd's winner against Exeter five games ago, and Eifion Williams in particular is struggling in front of goal. The partnership of Boyd and Williams hasn't quite clicked, and with Richardson and Henderson offering something different Newell must be considering changes. Gordon Watson played another 90 minutes in the reserves and scored on Wednesday, and the clamour for Flash's inclusion - even if only on the bench - is growing steadily louder.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Newell will start with an unchanged team, and that Watson won't be on the bench - though I will be more than happy if he does return in some form tonight.

Prediction time then, and in my look at our run-in I said I thought this would be a draw. It's tempting to stick with that - but I expect Pools to put in a much better performance tonight and will go for a hard-fought 2-1 victory. It's difficult to see the first choice strikers scoring though, so I'll go for Lee and Humphreys to get the goals.