Arsenal
Dont bin season ticket just yet! Why Arsenal will qualify
BSM
By Joshua
March 26 2013
We have had a long wait for anything Arsenal to happen this last 10 days. The highlight was probably the Ox's goal against the mighty San Merino often known as a load of bankers. No that's not meant to be an insult that is at least one player's job, and isnt there a dentist? So to get us back into the mood for real football on a Saturday Josh of the Rouge London Blog has very kindly reviewed Arsenal's, and our competitors, chances of winning the 4th place trophy. I am sure his contribution will create plenty of controversy, and there is a lot of good analysis in it. Josh's article follows immediately below:
Don't bin your season ticket quite yet! Why Arsenal will still be playing Champions League Football next season…
Last summer I received an incredible email - “Season Ticket Offer at Arsenal Football Club”. It had been more than seven years in the making. Time momentarily froze as I digested the words in front of me. Then came the rush of adrenaline as I fumbled around my flat in search of a phone. It is a memory that will remain with me forever. The timing though, as with most things in life, could not have been much worse. It was a fortnight before my wedding and my finances were in tatters.
I envisaged all the home made lunches and tins of beans I would need to survive on in the coming months. I decided there and then that there was only one course of action - to take the plunge and purchase the ticket! Nine months have since passed, and what a great decision it has turned out to be! The opportunity to watch your boyhood team is something that many fans would chop an arm off for. I was therefore quite dumbfounded this week when a friend of mine announced that he intended to rent his ticket out for next season. The rationale behind his decision? “I don’t want to lose my season ticket, but I refuse to pay the current price without Champions League football to look forward to”….
Before you ask “is this guy a real fan?” or “has he fallen on hard times?” then think again. He is both a life-long fan and financially solvent. In my view, the decision he made reflects a much more widespread issue at the club; an on-going malaise which no-one seems capable of arresting. In a microcosm it is one example of the rampant pessimism permeating through the mindset of many Arsenal fans these days. I disagree strongly with such an outlook, and I am going to argue that not only is the decision of my friend (and no doubt many others at the club) a sad one, but that it is based on an unlikely premise – a season without Champions League football. It is irrational and counter to historical precedent to argue that Arsenal Football Club will finish this season outside the qualification zone for Europe’s elite competition.
First of all let’s take a quick look at some hard, cold stats. In our most recent Premier League game on 16th March we beat Swansea 2-0. This means that there are nine matches remaining in the current campaign. Across the final ten matches in the history of the Premier League, Arsenal average 1.92 points per game. Our average number of points per game over all other matches stands at an inferior 1.86. The conclusion from this is fairly straightforward - historically we finish strongly.
Furthermore, in each of our previous three League campaigns when we found ourselves in fifth place with ten games remaining (1999/00, 2005/06, 2008/09) we still managed to achieve a top four finish AND scored 25, 25, and 27 goals respectively. Compare these goal tallies to the average across all other games in our history (18.3), and it becomes abundantly clear that not only do we finish strongly, but we also finish most strongly when the stakes are at their highest! On this brief historical analysis alone, what on earth are the fears of many Arsenal fans based on? How can they be justified in such a sensationalist if not apocalyptic fashion?
Returning to the present, there are other factors to consider– not least the fixture lists of our nearest rivals Chelski and Tottenham. Let’s begin with the Blues – Southampton away on Saturday 30th March is a potential banana skin. The Saint’s recent home form against the big boys has been impressive, beating both Manchester City in February and Liverpool in March by 3-1. The strength of Chelsea’s squad ought to prevail, but let’s not forget many of their players featured in World Cup Qualifiers and friendlies over the past week. The risk of injury aside, fatigue is an inevitable by-product of such exertion. The blues then face Manchester United on 1st April in an FA Cup replay - the one remaining domestic competition that Chelsea still have a chance of winning. This will be a dog fight of a game. Furthermore it represents the beginning of an eight game run for Roman’s legion in April, which includes fixtures against Liverpool, Tottenham, and two Quarter-final Europa League ties. The Tottenham clash interests me most as considering the current gap of 1 point between the two, the magnitude of the result cannot be understated.
From the perspective of an Arsenal fan it is also particularly tantalising as it is likely to knacker the pants off both teams. Then, before Chelsea fans thought it could not get any worse their team must travel to Old Trafford on the 4th May. Let’s face it, United have bagged the title already but Fergie has distilled a mindset of steeliness and focus in his players that will prevent a repeat of last season’s mini-collapse. I predict a heavy win in favour of the Red devils and with it potentially the end of Chelsea’s Champions League dreams.
How about Tottenham Hotspur? Well, their run-in is not quite as severe as Chelski’s, but nonetheless tough, especially for a team whose squad depth remains questionable (yes, Bale is worth the same as two strikers, a central midfielder and a winger, but his recent injury concern whilst on International duty represents a possible grey cloud for Tottenham’s European ambitions). Having said this, they also have two Europa League ties to deal with as well as fixtures against Everton (on a scintillating high after their recent win over Manchester City), Manchester City, and a revived Wigan Athletic undergoing their usual end of season Houdini act.
Arsenal on the other hand have an arguably ‘easier/ run of matches. Reading at home on 30th March won’t be as straight forward as if we were playing them earlier in the season (their recent narrow defeat away to Manchester United suggests a battling quality) but it would be extremely surprising (if not exasperating) if we were not to book three points here. The away game at West Bromwich Albion on 6th April should be another three points.
The Hawthorns has not been a fruitful place for anyone to travel to this season – only the two Manchester clubs have registered more home wins than West Brom, but it’s important to note that the majority of these (6 out of 9) were banked before the end of November. Based on recent form three points ought to be ours for the taking. Norwich at home on 13th April has 3 points written all over it – the Canaries have only managed 6 points from their last nine League matches.
Our third match in April however could prove a pivotal moment in our season – home to Everton on 16th April. Having comprehensively beaten Manchester City 2-0 in their last league game, Everton ought to be firing on all cylinders. They have an extremely competent man at the helm in the figure of David Moyes, and as a club they will continue to knock on the door of Champions League qualification in the coming years. It’s too early to make a call on how significant this game could be as Everton still have tough games away to Spurs and at home to a desperate QPR in the interim, but my money is on it being a huge one!
The conclusion we can take from this? Both Chelski and Tottenham have a fixture log-jam to contend with (the latter less so, but whose squad depth is unable to cope with such a program), and Arsenal do not. Both Chelsea and Tottenham will drop points in a number of key games, and this will prove a catalyst for us gaining a top four spot. In fact when considering the pain that awaits both our nearest rivals, our recent exit from the Champions League and the mid-winter Cup defeats to Bradford and Blackburn appear to have been a blessing! We now have a relatively fresh squad, focussed and running on the back of recent strong results, with a fixture list that is comparatively accommodating. One aim, one target, one inevitable outcome.
One other factor that does deserve a mention, although it could well form the basis for a separate article in itself, is the impact of the recent shift in attitude within management. Arsene Wenger has made some bold decisions in benching Szczesny in favour of Fabianski, giving Vermaelen a rest in favour of a Koscielny/Mertesacker combination at the heart of defence, and also playing Jenkinson ahead of Sagna (whose heart I do not believe is in it any longer). There is now a renewed focus within the squad. Everyone realises the extent of what will happen if they fail to produce the goods from here on in – no guarantee of a starting berth (or indeed a future at the club) and no Champions League football. There is simply no margin for error – a situation which based on the great history of Arsenal Football Club suits us just fine in our quest for Champions League football.
Follow Joshua at Rouge London Twitter – RougeLondon1
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/pages/Rouge-London/556371961061228?ref=hl
Digg
Delicious
Facebook
Reddit
Stumbleupon26/03/2013 19:01
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2013:03:31:22:43:21 by Padre Pio.
Maybe Wenger includes Spurs implosion into his pre season calculation.
But even WBA away could be hard unless we can bribe their keepers 2 seasons running.
I find this constant quest for 4th place is becoming tedious, and even if we do get it, and it is an if, I will think long and hard about whether I will renew my season ticket or not. Alhough I would hate to miss Wenger's last season
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
Harder to plan for the opposition.
Good article rougey! I half wish there were more gooners with your mindset, that said, I wouldn't be sharing a st if it weren't for the negative souls too. Takes all types, I guess.
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
Sad reality.
Theodore roosevelt - In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.
Besides, the crowds are normally more up for it in the big games. Many of which are in the CL. I enjoy them almost more sometimes.
Quote:Philly the kid
It's precisely that no-one knows where the goals will come from that gives us a better chance IMHO.
Harder to plan for the opposition.
Good article rougey! I half wish there were more gooners with your mindset, that said, I wouldn't be sharing a st if it weren't for the negative souls too. Takes all types, I guess.
Thanks Philly. It's a real shame that this is happening so widely, but yes I suppose you are right in one way - it does give an opportunity for some fans who cannot afford a full ticket.
Another mate of mine is in fact thinking of renting out FOUR of his season tickets! (what an outgoing that must be!) Trying to get some of my other mates to take them as it would save a big old wait! (I think the waiting list is currently around 35,000 - when I joined it 7 years ago it was about 55,000).
Let's keep the optimism going though!
Come on you Gooners!
Rouge London - a haven for Arsenal football fans
[rougelondon.wordpress.com]
The reality is that by the time Arsenal realise the goal of self sustainability they will have played their part in breaking the backs of those whom sustained it through unsustainable circumstances. The club is no different from successive governments which have disenfranchised the nation, they cry hard times because the general cry of hard times is so loud that they somehow assume that their disingenuous plight will be drowned out by the cacophony of pain, but the trumpet sounds the end for Jericho, not the beginning and if the walls of Jericho fall then there is only a ruin, a relic.
The clubs party line rhetoric has a communist social structure at it's core, the club/state is all powerful and you must do what the club/state says you must, Stalin didn't listen to his people, neither did Mao and neither does PHW. The economic model is built upon the fiat currency model, you give everything you have in terms of labour and receive little back if anything at all so in effect what you have is a unilateral contract whereby one party attains all the benefits of this edict and the other is simply the debtor and this model prevails throughout the new western social contract and it's nature is entirely unilateral and arbitrary.
It's what makes me most sick about the time I occupy, the, no your people built everything you see around you, everything you use or believe you need was constructed by the hands of minimum wage workers and yet all of the credit is taken by an ideas man and trust I know because that is my forte, I am an ideas man except my ideas are instructed by my conscience.
However, there is according to some corporate legal teams no directing mind behind a corporation. British Gas used this argument in a case in the Supreme Court and the premise was that because a corporation is a legal fiction and has no material form that it cannot harass or harm members of the public by way of it's actions. Now this is interesting because I use this method to refute the claims of corporate entities which claim that I have by not paying them something injured them in some way, if there is a crime show me the injured party and see to it that the injured party be ready to be called as a witness to substantiate it's claim and show proof of it's injury in a court of law.
They can't, there is no injured party and in accordance with their own argument there is no directing mind just an underlying requirement to make more money for it's private shareholders. A corporation is an uncontrollable animal, it has no directing mind, just directing drives and desires and it is ruthless in pursuing those ends by any means necessary, including but not limited to psychobabble economics and Jedi mind tricks.
We are all being fleeced, whether by consent or by way of conscientious objection being ignored, you are the pawn, this world they have constructed in peoples minds is the board, the crown must be protected at all costs or the game is over and the game is over.
Onwards and upwards.
Come on you Gooners!
Rouge London - a haven for Arsenal Football Fans
[rougelondon.wordpress.com]
Its all part of the same sickness, the appropriation of football by nefarious corporate entitities for their own ends and the systematic installation of this 'fase conciousness', which Arsenal excel at, that their financial achievements represent a real sporting achievement. That their balance sheet is the league table that we should all be looking at.
Rightly, I couldnt give a flying f*Ck whether ARsenal come 4th. I hope they come f*cking 19th. I hope the whole place collapses from the inside and the board is run out of the board room by rampaging fans. Its the only thing that will sort the place out. I hope the same thing happens at all these other clubs with unelected foreign billionaire ownership fleecing decent families and squeezing every last drop of cash from the carcass of the 'best league in the world'.
What you talk about isnt pessimism, its disenfranchisement. There is a difference.
[www.againstmodernfootball.com]
Quote:Might as well just give up now then, eh Billy.
No, might as well stand rather than kneel. Why is it that when confronted with a challenge the only feasible alternative to the conflict is surrender, is that what being British is now ?
I thought we stood to face the challenge, never wavering, audacity in the face even of death and all that.
Quote:Forget Stalin, forget rising British Gas bills, and look on the bright side of life! :-)
Shall I forget Hitler too, or the N A Z I's, national socialism or mergers between corporate and government power which cripples and disenfranchises the people of what were once sovereign states to this day for corporate gain, 99% of the wealth held by 1% of the population through corporations and off shore trust funds outside of the jurisdiction of the state thereby neutralising civil law remedies making the assets and therefore the shareholders untouchable and operating outside of the rule of law....and you see a bright side to this ?
Quote:celine dion
I couldnt give a flying f*Ck whether ARsenal come 4th. I hope they come f*cking 19th. I hope the whole place collapses from the inside and the board is run out of the board room by rampaging fans. Its the only thing that will sort the place out. I hope the same thing happens at all these other clubs with unelected foreign billionaire ownership fleecing decent families and squeezing every last drop of cash from the carcass of the 'best league in the World'
[www.againstmodernfootball.com]
The point of my article Ladies and Gentlemen is illustrated perfectly courtesy of Celine Dion (what a name!)
I assume also from her website reference "against modern football" that she may also be a bit of a dinosaur. Please move with the times Celine!
Such pessimism too! How can you ever wish for our team to "collapse from within"??? Either you woke up on the wrong side of bed like Billy (or maybe WITH Billy?) or you have forgotten what it means to stick by your club through thick and thin!!!
Out with the pessimism and in with the optimism!
Come on you gunners!
Rouge London - a haven for Arsenal Football Fans
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
Quote:Billythekid
Oops looks like my posts are getting deleted again, I wonder why ?!
That's because you started rambling on about communism, marxism, blah blah blah... ;-)
To offer you some consolation mine and others also got deleted - was one of those spam attacks going on world wide the other week!
Going back to my article, I think the result against Reading and Chelsea's losss away to the Saints is starting to justify my argument - we will be playing Champions League football next season!
Come on you Gunners!
Rouge London - a haven for Arsenal Football Fans
[rougelondon.wordpress.com]
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
Quote:Padre Pio
Don't count your chickens too early rouge. I thought we were running away with league and then eduardo's leg was broken.
Hi Padre Pio,
I may be proven wrong, but it's my view/opinion on the matter. I think we have an excellent chance of finishing in the top four. Chelsea and Spurs are going to drop points. I think our focus is much improved, and we are showing mental toughness to win the majority of our final games. If we do so, which I think we will, then CL football is ours.
It's certainly going to be a fascinating run-in to the end of the season!
Come on you Gooners!
Rouge London - a haven for Arsenal Football Fans
[rougelondon.wordpress.com]
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
StreamFootball - Arsenal
More Arsenal headlines
Arsenal latest threads
- Off Topic: Remember the Clamour re Jhon Duran
- Vinicius Junior
- You can sign one player this window
- Sign valverde and kill 2 birds with one stone
- Can this team with the champions league next season?
- Tzolis signs - official
- 2026/27 Arsenal Squad
- What’s going on?
- For those interested.. Arsenal Women Continue to Strengthen
- Saliba