He's not the Messiah

By Boris Mellor
March 21 2009

These two teams have drawn 21 times in total, Newcastle 11 times and Arsenal 10 times. Yet it would be unfair to say that this has been the aim of either team. Arsenal always play to win, and drawing is of no use to Newcastle who are in the danger zone. Three points on Saturday could lift them several places up the table. However, Arsenal must win if they are to stay ahead of Villa.

 Age of the Goalless Draw

Arsenal have not lost away from home since Manchester City on November 22^nd, that defeat was followed by victory at Chelsea a week later, since then Arsenal have lost only one game out of 20 in all competitions. However very few Gunners see this as a positive as nearly 50% of these games were draws, and a large number of those were goalless.

It may not be of any consolation to Arsenal fans but this tendency to draw is not unique to Arsenal, it is part of a trend. This is the worse season since 98/99 for the dreaded nil-nil draw. Up until the 17 March this season there have been 33 zero-zeros, that's ten more than the same time last season.  Oh for the glorious season of 99/00 when there were only 16. However we have been here before in 98/99 when there were 38. Nonetheless, this is the worst season since that season, a season when Manchester United won the treble. Let's hope it is not an omen.

Arsene Wenger has complained that Arsenal are a victim to the draw specialists, and there is much truth in that. However this is a day and age where most teams, including Arsenal play variants of 4-5-1. Of course not every 4-5-1 is the same; some are more attacking than others, or more defensive than others.

Don't overlap

Personnel are all important, since Wenger lost Fabregas, Eduardo and Walcott as regular players his defence became more vulnerable. He has compensated by playing an extra holding midfielder and instructing his full backs to be more cautious. No doubt once Wenger has got his attacking power back he will be prepared to unleash his full backs again.

Whenever Wenger scouts a full back his first question is not how good are they at defending, but how good are they at attacking. Chelsea won two leagues more with defensive strength than attacking flair; Scolari's attempt to change that only won him the sack. Hiddink has seen the return of more cautious ways.

 Arshavin the key

No doubt these statistics are not a shock to Wenger, and indeed he has complained frequently about this trend. Some fans have said, in exasperation, that it is not good enough for him to complain, he needs to do something. Now he has, he has signed a player, no doubt with this trend in mind, who can break through the negativity of Premiership defences and formations; we have got our lock picker back. Let's hope he can do it away from home.

Walcott Setback

Walcott has suffered the strangest injury yet, his knee locked as he walked back to his car after training. This may be a reaction to a knock earlier in training. If it is a cartilage problem he could be out three to five weeks.  Walcott has already made a difference to Arsenal's performances, he may not be on top form, but defences are terrified of him. We may be compensated by the return of Eduardo, however Fabregas and Ade are still unavailable.

Both teams will go for it

 Less than three points is not a lot of use to either team, though one point is probably of more value to Newcastle than the Gunners. Ironically if both teams attack they could cancel each other out. However teams that attack Arsenal usually come a cropper, that's why not too many try.

Arsenal Possible Squad Almunia, Sagna, Toure, Gallas, Clichy, Nasri, Denilson, Song, Arshavin, Van Persie, Fabianski, Djourou, Gibbs, Vela, Bendtner, Eboue, Diaby, Silvestre.