Why can’t Arsenal win? Defence or attack to blame?


Frozen south

By Boris Mellor
November 26 2006

Why can’t Arsenal win? Is the defence or attack the most to blame? Looking at the Bolton game it would be tempting to say both. Arsenal’s first half defending was atrocious, and second half finishing lamentable.

 In the first half there were several candidates for the "Jeff Blockley Rubbish Clearance Shield", and in the second several for the "Kaba Diawara Hit the Woodwork Cup". Mind you hitting the woodwork isn’t that easy and there is a major promo out there showing a football star juggling the ball and deliberately hitting the crossbar again and again. I am convinced it’s a fake, but there are a few members of this Arsenal team that could do it for real.

But I digress – who is to blame Attack or Defence? Well the statistics show that the Gunners have conceded 10 goals which gives them the 4th best defence in the Premiership so not much wrong there then? Not at first sight, but 8 out of those 10 goals were conceded first, in other words the opposition has scored the first goal on eight occasions, when that has happened Arsenal have won only one game and lost three. They only scored seven goals and conceded ten, therefore conceding an early goal means that it becomes harder to score. Once a goal up the opposition can crowd the goalmouth and keep Arsenal out.

Arsenal scored first on five occasions and won on five occasions. Having scored first Arsenal went on to score 14 goals and concede none. So the problem is always when Arsenal concede first. Normally if they concede first the best result they manage is a draw, apart from Charlton where they overcome the deficit. Bolton is the last place to go and concede early if you want to win.

When Arsenal score first they average nearly 3 goals a game, when they concede first they average just under a goal a game. Thus defending is the key to scoring. Some fans argue that Arsenal do not score enough, maybe, but, up till Saturday they had scored 21 goals as to Chelsea’s 23 and Manchester United’s 29. So not as good as Man U, but not very different to Chelsea, nor have they conceded many more goals than the Russians – so surely its wrong to blame the defence? No it isn’t!

The key statistic is this – until today Chelsea have not conceded the first goal and have eight clean sheets compared to the Gunners five. It’s not good enough to concede first so early, and so often. During the week Arsenal conceded first within 4 minutes, yesterday within 9 minutes. It is not about missing any particular defender, this has been the trend all season.

The statistics might appear to show our defence is nearly as good as Chelsea’s, but it isn’t, a careful look at the figures show that Arsenal is the fourth best team at conceding early – its not something you want a high ranking at. Chelsea’s ranking is 19, that is Championship form.

There is one statistic I haven’t found, yet, but it needs considering, how many shots does it take to score against Arsenal? Newcastle had two shots and one goal, Villa one shot one goal, Everton two shots one goal, Man City one shot one goal, and so it goes on. In other words you only need one or two chances to get a goal against the Gunners. Defences, with far less talented players than Arsenal’s, often face far more shots, and concede far less.

I’ve said it before on this site, but its worth repeating, a fish rots from the head, a team rots from the back. This is not an argument for replacing any of Arsenal’s defenders, but for better organisation, tactics and coaching. For until the Arsenal defence loses its glass jaw then Wenger can forget all expectation of any trophies.

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