By TouchLine
November 14 2002

A few weeks ago this was expected to be an easy home win for the Falcons but recent results, and particularly last weekend's, have suggested it will not be a walkover. What the statistics say

Statistics for this season show that a close match can be expected with very little difference between the teams’ results. Bath have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 5 with no Try BPs and 2 Losing BPs. We have won 3 and lost 6 with 1 Try BP and 1 Losing BP. Bath have scored the fewest points in the league this season though we can hardly shout as we have second fewest. Defensively we have conceded the most points whereas Bath are much tighter with the 6th fewest points conceded.

Catt - The key?

International calls would seem to hit both sides fairly evenly with Grewcock, Tindall and Maggs out for Bath and Grimes and Wilkinson for Falcons. To win Falcons will have to score tries as they are certainly at a disadvantage in the goal-kicking department where Barclay has been finding his form. This would seem to be Bath’s best chance of a result at Kingston Park for several years but their inability to convert chances into points will prove a big handicap at Fortress KP. Mike Catt could prove to be the key. When he plays well Bath seem to win and without him they are a shambles. With Wilkinson and Walder out and Va’a doubtful, this will be a key position on Sunday.

Back row face international trio

The other key area will be the backrow. With Grimes away, Vyvyan will have to play in the second row so if Arnie is fit our backrow would probably be Arnie, Dunbar and Howson though I’d prefer to see Devonshire in there. Whoever plays, they will have to work hard to compete with the all international Bath trio of Lyle, Nathan and Gavin Thomas (no relation!)

The result?

The result is by no means a certainty. If Bath play reasonably and we don’t turn up then they should run in the tries. However, a reasonable defensive performance and home advantage should be enough for us to edge them out in a close game.

Touchline’s forecast – Falcon’s by less than 10.

So what do YOU think of TouchLine's prediction? Will Falcons win or will Bath be the ones celebrating? Post your thoughts on the Message Board!