By Steerforth
August 19 2006

Uncertain times. Attempting a preview at this point is a bit like giving an answer without knowing the full question. By the end of the transfer window we might look good for ten points more than we do as the squad stands. We might not though, and even in a season where the stated objectives are no more than consolidation and limited progress, it’s not much fun to contemplate. There is a simple equation here: no goals = no progress, a season treading water at best. We all know the script - Owen, Shearer and young Chopra out, no-one in. There aren’t enough goals in this squad, and the only way to get them is to buy them. Ameobi has done well under Roeder, but even if you give him 15 league goals this year, and factor in a few more from midfield, we’re still some way off improvement. And what Ameobi categorically does not offer is the kind of pace and penetration an Owen, or a Bellamy, can. The absence of a quick, dangerous forward, a player who worries defenders just because he‘s there, is the stand-out weakness in our squad. With precious little hard information to go on, we can only guess at the reasons behind the lack of progress in the transfer market. Whatever they may be, Shepherd and Roeder need to come up with solutions, and quickly.

And we need two strikers. Minimum, two, to go into the season confident of hitting the stated ’top six’ target. Two players going 50-odd games without picking up an injury is practically inconceivable (I have no faith in Luque at all personally, and a couple of bright moments in pre-season/Intertoto have done nothing to convince me otherwise. He‘s lazy, static, disinterested, a fish out of water). In his recent radio interview Roeder strongly hinted that the plan was to sign one proven striker, and one young player with potential. He really needs his chairman to back him on that, and make a breakthrough.

…because a decent start or better is vital to Roeder. The current air of goodwill towards the manager, engendered partly by his impressive stint as caretaker, partly by his long association with the club, and partly by the happy accident of merely not being Graeme Souness, will quickly evaporate in a run of bad results (anyone doubting this just needs to look at the murmurings of discontent simply over the Kuyt business). His stay of execution may last a bit longer than that of the unfortunate Souness, but he simply does not have the sort of managerial pedigree to hold off the doubters for long should he find himself at the wrong end of the table. SJP has been a favourite feeding ground of the backpage mischief-makers for some time, and at the first sign of weakness they’ll emerge like a pack of hyenas. We all know what usually happens next.

He’s well-enough acquainted with football on Tyneside to know this of course, and all summer has been emphasizing the importance of good preparation and hitting the ground running. He’s not wrong, but he’s a lot less likely to get it without the personnel. Give him, for the moment, these two hypothetical strikers, and the complexion of the forthcoming season is transformed.

That’s not to say these two phantoms solve all the problems, not by a long way. We’re no better than adequate at the back, but we are at least that, as opposed to the largely mythical but stubborn ‘joke defence’ the world and his wife appear to think we are. Roeder, being an ex-defender, would surely take great satisfaction in laying this one to rest, but the indications all summer have been that the priorities lie at the other end of the pitch, and that he’s accepted he’ll have to work largely with what he has. Given’s brilliance and Taylor’s potential apart, we lack real quality and depth at the back. Between them, however, Carr, Babayaro, Bramble and Moore have a lot of experience, and are all decent players. A test of Roeder’s coaching abilities is to get the best out of them, and get them playing consistently and cohesively. There were encouraging signs at the back end of last season, certainly.

That said, cover at the back, even allowing for Ramage’s whole-heartedness and versatility, is worryingly thin, more so if Boumsong is shipped out and not replaced. Bridge, should the persistent rumours turn out to have substance, would be a big boost. A personal take on this is that, given limited resources, Roeder is quite right to focus on attacking players for the present; it could be a lot better at the back, but he can’t do it all at once.

Solano, Milner, Parker, Butt, Emre, Nzogbia, Duff - (and Dyer, in parenthesis). It’s a top-four standard midfield, no question about it. Quality and quality cover in all areas, and an ideal combination of hungry young bucks, class players in their prime and old hands with top-level experience. And that’s not to mention the kids, who are probably wishing they were defenders or forwards! I’ll leave the array of possible permutations to those who enjoy the formation game/understand tactics better than I do; suffice to say that the manager is going to have a job keeping them all keen and involved. There really is an abundance of creative potential here, (and no shortage of steel). We’re back to the problem of strikers though - these players will create chances all day, and score their share too, but we need specialist converters to properly realise their potential. A particular source of frustration watching this pre-season has been to see the impressive Emre, quick in thought and act, looking time and again to open up a defence with a pass, and finding nowhere to go. What a waste.

A final thought for the manager. We all know the first-day-of-the season feeling. Waking up, remembering the day, perhaps locating the ticket, just to be sure. And hope, in spite of everything. When Glenn Roeder wakes up, rubs his eyes, and draw the curtains, he may see before him the opportunity of a lifetime. Imagine what this prospect must mean to this man! Just a little over three years ago he was on a life support machine, having been hung out to dry by the West Ham board, vilified by his own fans, cut down by a life-threatening illness - and ruthlessly sacked on his return. He was effectively finished. He found a modest role in an old home, but could scarcely have dreamed of a course of events that would lead him to this prospect, this Saturday morning in August.

Sentimental? A little. The cynic in me says, and the half-life I’ve had watching this club says, that Glenn Roeder is manager by default, an opportunistic appointment made by a man who couldn’t come up with anything else when it came to it. The fan in me says ‘so what?’ - he might just pull it off.

And he might. As Souness remarked, ‘someone has to get it right here’ - here’s hoping it’s Glenn Roeder.