By ballagher
January 15 2014

Whilst unlikely, it is still possible for Northampton Saints to qualify for the Quarter-Finals of this year's Heineken Cup and they welcome current French champions, Castres Olympique, to the Gardens this Friday evening in the final pool match of the group stages where only a convincing win for the Black, Green and Gold will keep hopes alive. COYSDC contributor, ballagher, takes a look at what to expect under the lights at FG...

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs CASTRES OLYMPIQUE

Friday, 17th January 2014 - 8pm (Sky Red Button)

FRANKLIN'S GARDENS, NORTHAMPTON

MATCH PREVIEW

Bienvenue à nouveau Castres who come to their home from home here in Northampton.  This being the eighth match between the two sides in four years, there's more head to head form than for several premiership sides we play.  In this latest encounter, and as we enter the final weekend of the group stage of the HC, realistically Saints are looking for a win to progress to the knockout stages of the Amlin.

Looking back at this year’s campaign, the debacle at home to the then imperious Leinster will inevitably overshadow everything else but it is credit to the team that they have dug in to get to this position.  The team that beat Ospreys on Sunday was as follows:

Tom Collins, Jamie Elliott, George Pisi, Luther Burrell, George North; Steve Myler, Kahn Fotuali'i; Alex Waller, Dylan Hartley (capt), Salesi Ma'afu, Courtney Lawes, Christian Day, Calum Clark, Samu Manoa, Tom Wood

Replacements: Lee Dickson, Fa'atoina Autagavaia, Glenn Dickson, Ethan Waller, Mikey Haywood, Tom Mercey, Phil Dowson, Sam Dickinson.

Personally, injuries aside, I suspect that it will be the same 23 announced later this week but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the replacements last time (perhaps Dickinson, Dowson, Dickson L and Autagavaia?) make it into the starting line-up.  But what do I know?  In a week where the RFU are promoting player awareness of concussion, I’m pleased I don’t have the headache of team selection.

Usually at this stage the danger of headaches arises from all the qualification permutations that abound.  This year I would argue Saints’ path is relatively straightforward.  True, we have the disadvantage of going first but I don’t think it will make much difference.

Provided Leinster secure at least a bonus point of some sorts at home to Ospreys (and you’d have to go back [a long way to our match before Christmas] for when they last failed to do that) they will top the group.  Provided Saracens beat Connacht at home, their group will secure the second of the best runner-up spots.

So to the Amlin.  If we beat Castres with a four try bonus, we definitely qualify.  But a win without a bonus point and that should be enough – it would take bonus point wins for both Quins (away at Scarlets) and Edinburgh (away at Munster) to deny us.

It only gets complicated if Connacht turn the tables on Sarries.  Then the bonus point win would probably be vital as we scrap it out with Cardiff (same points as us but starting the weekend with a try less) and ironically Connacht (although they are too far behind on tries).  Should all three fail to get the bonus point then Quins and Edinburgh (see above) join the fray.  Whilst there are other scenarios of course, that’ll do I think.

But hang on a minute.  Let’s not assume we’ve beaten Castres.  This is, after all, a team that were leading against Leinster at half time last week (and that was with a side weakened by injuries).  I confess I don’t know whether their team on Friday will be stronger or weaker but history (and there’s plenty of data of course) suggests it will be tight.  In the table below, I’ve put Saints’ score first throughout.

History favours the home team but it won’t be easy.  Personally, I think if we make a good start I could see us winning with room to spare.  However, I rather anticipate it being close to the finish.

News: HC: Northampton Saints vs Castres Olympique - Preview

Discussion started by ComeOnYouSaints.com , 15/01/2014 10:49

ComeOnYouSaints.com
15/01/2014 10:49

What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
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tedge
15/01/2014 11:14

Good preview and suitably cautious

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Alan B
15/01/2014 11:17

Agreed, those previous encounters show how awkward this could be. Have to secure the win before we can consider anything wider.

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riverlodge
15/01/2014 11:34

great preview.

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Flinstone Saint
15/01/2014 13:11

Thanks Ballagher. You've just made me realise I should be even more nervous about Friday night than I already am.

----------------------------------------

Please sponsor me for Saints with Heart [www.justgiving.com]

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SAINT_aitch
15/01/2014 16:43

Hmm yes, very tasty warm up to the match. Cheers.

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Saint Dom in Hanoi
15/01/2014 18:19

Great preview, circumspect but titilating!

As for the potential outcomes, I'd need to be an actuary to understand those. I'm with Luther - he says for the players it's a bonus-point win - or bust. I think that's the right attitude...


*I could agree with you - but then we'd both be wrong...*

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smitferbrainz
15/01/2014 20:27

We're gonna stuff em!

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Casual Saint
16/01/2014 11:16

Great report, thanks for all the permutations.


Personally I'm just going to go along and enjoy a game of rugby ... by the end of the night I'll start to think about our final position.

Castres looked pretty lively early on against Leinster, certainly the centre (12 ?) was a real live wire. I'll be looking out for him tomorrow night.

Once a scrum half .... always a scrum half

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Phil.
16/01/2014 12:10

Apologies, David - I did my usual trick of publishing and then neglecting to thank the author for taking the time for write a piece for COYSDC.

Thanks for a smashing read, good Sir!

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ballagher
16/01/2014 22:34

Quote:

Phil.
Apologies, David - I did my usual trick of publishing and then neglecting to thank the author for taking the time for write a piece for COYSDC.
Thanks for a smashing read, good Sir!

You're very welcome Phil and thanks to everyone else too for your kind comments.

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ChrisG
17/01/2014 18:05

Well writted Dave, only just round to reading it.

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