Northampton Saints
Thinking Out Loud - The Ghost of Rugby Future?
By Paul Flatt
December 28 2011
As we approach the end of 2011 - with speculation rife about our game and its players - The Inestimable Paul Flatt (he of his own board on this site!), puts digit to keyboard with some end of year thoughts about the future
Mrs F - who is a well known judge of horseflesh and the price of fish recently asked me to think out loud concerning the state of the game and its possible future(s) [some will know that we have a small, professional interest in another AP Club].
So, for what it is worth, here are some of my musings, to spark the thoughts of others. (To abbreviate a lot, I might make some sweeping generalisations for which I beg the pardon of whomever might be offended - especially supporters of other clubs who know better about the fortunes of their team).
Well without a doubt professional rugby in England has been a bit of dogs dinner. Some very well known amateur clubs have diminished while others tried the pro way and went bust in the process and disappeared or dropped to great depths.
Of the current 12 AP teams I guess only 3 or 4 are profitable (us, Tigers, Quins and Gloucester - and possibly Exeter). Some are in dire straits (Wasps, and Falcons). A few bounce along with not very good gates but have an owner or structure that currently assures continuity (Sale, Worcester, Bath)
London Irish were banking on their plans for Sunbury going through before Christmas but were heavily rebuffed, I'm told, while down in the High Veldt of Hertfordshire normal economics don't seem to apply.
Outside of the AP, the two obvious 'big clubs' Leeds & Bristol really only fit into the small to medium Premiership category and the rest ably led by the Pirates and Blues combine varyingly successul semi-professional business models. In short, the 12 team league just about works but doesn't have the economic robustness to enable the collective members to take the next step change - upwards.
Outside of England, the Celts went their own, different way and swept away the Great Clubs to replace them with centrally directed / funded / owned 'franchises' designed to match the demands and funding availability of the TV dollar and to maximise potential for the biggie - The Heineken Cup - for therein lies national pride and the gratitude of the punters. This model has worked wonder in Ireland, and may be starting to work in Wales. Scotland are just mired in the debt of Murrayfield and too small a spectator base.
The French mostly resemble the English model, but more clubs, more money, less football & rugby league competition plus a little Basque / Catalan / Auvergnois nationalism has given their game a certain je ne sais quois to which a much larger salary cap and 'municipal backdoor arrangements' have imbued success and impetus. That said, an annual start of season glimpse at the Super14 table tells me that the greasy pole of French Rugby is much more active than in the UK with teams rising and falling without trace - so I guess the economics of quite a few clubs could be as squeaky as in the UK. I guess the profitable / self sufficient teams in France are only Toulouse, C Auvergne. The rest have 'les arrangements'.
Back in England, the suits and the clubs have unfinished business. The suits - it's clear - resent their loss of control over quite a big chunk of the game that makes the column inches. They are perhaps jealous of their Irish brethren and the largesse which the IRFU can dole out beyond the 6N weekends. The Clubs don't like the H Cup financial arrangements, nor the H Cup 'onwership' and (I'm guessing wildly here) perhaps are not very keen (at all) on the way The Union provide, train and control the refereeing function for the professional game (and the standards deriving therefrom).
Within the AP, I think several clubs don't like the Salary Cap although the majority cling onto it for cherished financial survival. Increasingly this funademental split seems to make an English strangehold on the H Cup unlikely. The punters will grow increasingly restless if they perceive domestic rugby to be second class, and the Sky Barons will want their subscriber heartland to remain - at least - enfranchised.
Perhaps not yet fully appreciated in 'punterland' is the current and future economic situation across Europe. Easy money has gone, and hard times are a-coming. Folks will want to be inside a more secure, more durable tent to survive stronger storms.
So, something has to give, because all of these conflicting realities are pulling in opposite directions.
So what do I think will happen?
I think a European Rugby League is increasingly likely. It will be controlled by the Clubs, not by the Unions. There is still a huge question mark on how to accommodate the Welsh and Irish, who will definitely 'want in' but the Clubs will be loathe to see any Trojans or Proxies from those national Unions trying to assert any undue influence - the real drivers here are -
1) Who gets the TV money?
2) Who sets the salary cap?
3) Who sets the fixture list and calendar?
These 3 areas are the crux of the contradictions between the clubs and Unions. Next time, the Clubs can't / won't let go of these prizes
Almost of secondary importance at this stage is 'who gets in, and how is entry / exit to / from this league / club controlled?' Again, I'm guessing that a test of financial probity will be applied, as will a media / facilities / capacity audit - on top of just being good enough to compete.
Et le deluge? Those teams who don't make it upward to the next level, in England, will I think be quite happy to form a semi-professional league to match their more modest resources and ambitions. That is already a reality.
So who's in amd who's 'out' in my brave new world?
In for certain: Tigers, Saints, Quins, Gloucester; & Saracens (but...)
In maybe : London Irish, Bath
And your thoughts, please?
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One might have a larger, better ground but the other has a history and a mega rich owner who is one of the driving forces behind this new (re-hashed) idea.
The Taffs are technically independent clubs and would be well up for this as they'd like the safety in numbers from the unionist pillaging (intermidable internationals on league weekends, training camps on league weekends) that clubbing together with the English and the French would bring.
The Irish would attempt to keep the HC going, fail then take what they were given (hopefully).
Possible structures would be two tiers of 14 or even 16 (if this was the only game in town you'd need that many games), or perhaps two pools of around 10 with a larger play off element or an out right theft of the NFL model with 3/4 pools of 4/5/6 teams depending on what was commercially attractive. You could for instance have the three Irish teams and Glasgow as one pool, three welsh teams (sack off Newport) plus Bath and Gloucester as another, Leicester, yourselves, Quins, Sarries and AN other English team as the third, Toulouse, Racing, Stade, ASM, Bayonne (or perhaps a Ospreys esque Team Basque combination of Bayonne/Biarritz?) then Toulon, Treviso, Milan (in place of Aironi or Aironi moving to Milan), Parma and another south eastern French team (possibly Lyon or Grenoble? They're big places with decentish teams). Then have people play other divisions and what not to make up the number of games.
I know some people high up at Tigers are convinced there will be a euro super league within 5-10 years.
No alcohol for January. I'm a dryathlete in aid of cancer research.
Dryathlon
Thanks Flattie - don't know any answers but very enjoyable to read your thoughts.
That said I wonder whether it is in domestic economics that the focus or engine for change will occur ?
Currently the premiership consists of 12 teams - what if during the next - say two seasons two of those should fail financially - what if nobody buys Wasps ?
Question - Is the money there for a twelve team premiership ?
Finally in my view club rugby in whatever form or format it develops or ends up with has got to find a way to survive as a marketable commodity to the punters despite the growing depredations of international rugby.
While I totally understand the wishes of an english person or a Welsh Scots or Irish person for their national team to succeed it seems to me that the balance between the demands of the national team and the clubs is very much biased towards the national team in England at least.
I actually look at it from a different angle and wonder if the constant bickering between the suits and the scarves and hats (the supports of one premiership team) is actually good in the long term for rugby in general?
To the best of my knowledge there are 12 junior teams within a 15 mile radius of FG and if each club puts out three teams with a playing squad of around 60 that is more players than the 12 premiership teams with a squad of around 50 players. The balanced is tipped even further when you factor in the mini and junior sections and schools and colleagues that play rugby.
If you start giving a bigger slice of the pie to the premiership clubs then you must give less to these clubs and also the youth development programs, county rugby and the like. To the best of my knowledge (although I could well be wrong about this) no premiership club runs a mini and youth program, so how does this help with player development over the long term?
Whilst many of the hats and scarves on here do not like international rugby and have little or no interest in club rugby below the top division or two that is pretty short sighted in my view and not in the best interests of the game.
International rugby remains the pinnacle of the sport in all major rugby playing nations and the vast majority of players will never get close to a professional contract of any sort. Why anyone would see that giving less to the top and bottom and giving more to the level just below the top is the way forward I am not sure?
Personally I think more would be gained from spending relatively small amounts improving awareness and coaching at school and junior levels and having a far more structured backbone rather than just throwing more money at the premiership.
But who will make this happen and whose agenda does it suit?
No alcohol for January. I'm a dryathlete in aid of cancer research.
Dryathlon
With a little research Saints did do a training program last year for 7-16 year olds ranging from £90-£420 for three to five days, now I am sure it was very well organised and all who attended enjoyed it. However I would say with almost certainty that you would get a whole years membership and playing, kit etc for a fraction of that at any club with a lot less money than Saints have.
All this suits v scarves and hats leaves me a little bit cold as I feel it completely misses out the vast amount of people that play and are involved in rugby, as you rightly point out with the refereeing and coaching courses.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
Quote:Saint Tim
I would like for Saints to invest in the coaching staff of the minis and juniors at the local clubs. This gets the kids started off right and may well pay big dividends down the line.
It can also help produce the next crop of coaches. The problem is, with limited cash the club can only do so much..
So the question still remains (even if were talking about developing local rugby) Who should have the cash? The RFU, The local clubs (whuch means some areas will be over or under represented) or a mix of the 2?
I dont think there is an easy answer, however perhaps more insentives and rewards from the RFU to the clubs would be a solution. If it is seen they are performing activities that are seen to assist the wider game.
I think it's worth saying since it's been missed in all the replies that "The Saints" is a business and is run on business principals - foremost amongst which is to be successful and to make sufficient profit to keep being successful. The health of The Game (of which The Saints is a small part) is the problem of the Union and its affilited bodies.
I guess what I was talking about in my main piece is a break from the orthodoxy that says THE UNION must run (or control) everything. It's tried, and for many reasons (on both sides), it's failed and held back the professional game as a consequence.
It is right to demand attention to the nuturing of the game, and the development of new talent - and that is very much the role for the Union, which - in my opinion - should focus on running the Amateur and Semi-Professional Game. In one of my pipedreams the roles will reverse the existing status quo, the Euro-Professional Clubs will pay a Licence Fee (or whatever you want to call it) from their enlarged income to the Union for the right to operate as an Independant League Entity 'in association' with the Union.
The Union will not be entirely impoverished by such an arrangement. They would continue to have income from International fixtures, and they could do a lot to increase income from the semi-professional league(s) which they should look to develop (unlike the current total disregard for ND1, which Geoff Cooke seemed to run from his bungalow spare room in our last sojourn, there!).
And finally to answer one specific question from Ajack - Wasps have the extended range of teams that he describes from their standing arrangement with Wasps FC which (so Wikipedia informs me) still has a 5% equity share in the AP Club. Unfortunately, given the current travails, it doesn't seem to be a very good advert for what he proposes!
"Your days are numbered. Use them to throw open the windows of your soul to the sun. If you do not, the sun will soon set, and you with it."
-- Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161-180 A.D.
Quote:The inestimable PF
Euro-Professional Clubs will pay a Licence Fee (or whatever you want to call it) from their enlarged income to the Union for the right to operate as an Independant League Entity 'in association' with the Union.
Isn't that called a Franchise?
David L
What if there were no hypothetical questions?
- Live wrong and preposterously
the strongerclubs -financially and performance wise also demonstrate a weakness that arises from their inablity to see past short term advantages.
Perhaps somewhere -somehow the premiership equivalent of our own historic gang of seven is required to conduct a putsch.
Quote:St Marlowe
Isn't that called a Franchise?
Technically, I'ms sure you're right, david but it is a word with too much transatlantic meaning to assist here. I do not want nor intend to see anyone having the right to buy into a league and to be guaranteed security of tenure in return - which is want US Sport 'franchises' are.
My original piece used this phrase -
Quote:The inestimable myself
how is entry / exit to / from this league / club controlled?
And for absolute clarity, I meant 'relegation and promotion'
"Your days are numbered. Use them to throw open the windows of your soul to the sun. If you do not, the sun will soon set, and you with it."
-- Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161-180 A.D.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:12:30:11:15:03 by Paul Flatt.
The French have a very lucrative league and may not want to share, and even in their domestic league can sometimes send a 'A 2nd Xv' to play if there is a bigger game the following week.
Due to the structures of each home nations leagues, Clubs (Eng & Fra) v Super Clubs (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Treviso) v Proviences (Ire & Wales) there will never be an accord to suit all parties.
Can't see how it helps the game if England is represented by the towns of, say, Leicester, Northampton, Watford and Bath, locked into a Super League (unless you fortunate enough to come from one of those towns).
For the model to be acceptable, it would have to be regional teams, say, London & South East, South West, Midlands & North to be comprehensively representative of England (that's the necessary trade off for having no promotion or relegation).
In theory The Irish & Welsh provinces, the Scottish and Italian Super Clubs, and England and French regional teams in a sort of Northern Hemisphere Super 15 equivalent could work were it not for the slight sticking point it's unlikely to even happen in England, and sure as hell won't ever happen in France.
So English clubs will remain stuck between not having the concentration of talent pooled into a small number of teams like the Celts, nor having the financial clout of the French teams to compensate. It's the worst of both worlds in Europe.
Within the existing HC Cup format you could look to decrease the number of AP teams and increase or abolish the cap to help competitiveness in Europe, but it would ruin the domestic game in England.
Regional English teams in a European Super League that totally replaces the Heineken Cup, RaboDirect Pro12 & LV Cup, with an underlying semi-professional expanded English Premiership (and even an English old fashioned knock out cup) is the only way I could see a European League being a potential proposition.
Just a couple of minor tweaks needed and a couple of small hurdles to overcome to make that happen!!
Quote:Loosehead
What makes you think the Celts or French want a Euro League?
...there will never be an accord to suit all parties
I can't and don't disagree with either comment. The whole point of this pice is that the current 'accord' doesn't suit the English Clubs
Quote:Loosehead, again
The French have a very lucrative league
Disagree. Show me the balance sheets of all 14 clubs not just the 2 I mentioned.
Quote:Dorset Saint
For the model to be acceptable, it would have to be regional teams, say, London & South East, South West, Midlands & North to be comprehensively representative of England
Sorry, disagree. This issue is about Clubs versus Country. My speculation and this article is about what the CLUBS will do to benefit the CLUBS.
"Your days are numbered. Use them to throw open the windows of your soul to the sun. If you do not, the sun will soon set, and you with it."
-- Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161-180 A.D.
How will a European Super League featuring a handful of French and English towns locked in, enfranchise the TV viewers in those countries?
I not sure even the fans of those clubs would go for it (being removed from their domestic championships etc), let alone the supporters of other clubs going for it, let alone capturing the imagination of the floating casual observer.
If the European Super League is not closed shop, then it might help alleviate a bit the issue of consumer demand, but how could promotion and relegation be implemented by the clubs, if the whole point of reinventing European competition is to serve the clubs self interest and give them control over salary cap, fixtures, tv money?
And what would they drop into and the others teams that replace them come up from - a semi pro league? It would be a massive step either way to make, even bigger than what we have already between the Prem and Championship, which is already an issue.
And what leverage do those French/English clubs have to make a European Super League a reality (re: the Unions, the Celts etc)?
I probably just lack vision, but I just can't see how a European Super League could be set up and made to work, and I can't see how it would be good for game.
How can it be that (for example, last season) we made more money from our Quarter Final match against Ulster than we did from the semi and final?
How can it be that the ERC Committee and Executive positions were decided last season on a 3 line whip from the National Unions, over-ruling the choice of the Clubs?
How can it be that those English Clubs which can't compete with the French salary cap but could afford to do so are restrained by those clubs who can't afford it?
How can it be that the Irish 'Clubs' appear to be directly funded subsidiaries of the National Union which seems to only be interested in success in the Six Nations and the Heienken Cup and which does not have a national salary cap?
The truth is, there are already too many contradictory tensions in European 'Club' rugby and which are perceived by the English Clubs as unfair. They are supported in some of their views (but not all, granted) by the French clubs.
Something has to give, and I think it will. Like most of the development of Pro-Rugby, I suspect the immediate aftermath will be messy - remember the English boycott of the H Cup?
"Your days are numbered. Use them to throw open the windows of your soul to the sun. If you do not, the sun will soon set, and you with it."
-- Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161-180 A.D.
And you musings got me thinking about 'big' solutions, such as European Super League as you suggested. But whichever angle I look at it, I just can't see how it can possibly work.
I agree that this could get messy and like you I don't have the answers (at least not realistically achievable ones).
Quote:ChrisG
Loosehead, the Irish don't play in a domestic league they play in a pan european one as do all the other major nations bar England and France, the question is do the top clubs in those two countries want it?
England yes, France no, as for the Irish as you noted they are happy to play the HEC and Internationals, and the likes of BOD and POC play around maybe 50% of their Pro 12 matches. The RFU would prefer a regional set up along those lines with all the EPS players centrally contracted and then placed in regions where the region will pay a % of the contract.
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