By Quaking Quin
March 13 2007

Major celebrations for Deano as he reaches his target of 40 points for GP safety but a naïve performance against a streetwise Wasps second string ends any realistic hopes of a top 4 finish and also puts a big dent in Quins’ Heineken Cup ambitions.  

ROUND 18 

Predicted Total Points after Wasps: 46  (originally 40pts for 11^th place)
Predicted Finish Position after Wasps: 8^th (Deano thought this would be a close defeat)

Quins mathematically still need 6 more points for safety but this requires the Warriors to win all four of their remaining games and take a try bonus from each as well. 4 straight wins would have them finish with 41 points so that single point from the last game against Sale could still be vital to Quins’ survival. This may seem a bit far-fetched but not impossible. 

The 2004-05 ZP table had Leeds Tykes on 26 points after 18 games (only one more than Wuzz today) - and as we all know they eventually finished in 8^th slot on 43 points – just 4 points behind Gloucester, who took the final HC place. In fact the Round 18 table then looked spookily similar to today’s and leaves Quins with absolutely no room for complacency.

 

GP Sunday 11^th March 2007:

 

ZP Sunday 13^th March 2005:

(Figures in brackets give final league positions and points)

 

Our DOR is quoted on Saturday as saying he was ‘very disappointed’ by the result, or was that performance – or was it both. Crocodile tears me thinks. As far as he is concerned it’s ‘job done’ for 0607, anything more than 11^th place is a bonus, and he is now into serious planning for next season.

Dallaglio’s quote after the game was much more telling and to the point – ‘Six games from the end of the season is when you have to start to make your move – that’s what we’ve done.’ 

And it’s not what Quins have done. Like the under-achievers of old they have lost the matches that count at the business end of the year having engineered defeats out of potentially winning positions in their last two games. We were all probably a bit premature in thinking about a fairy tale ending after some powerful and passionate Quins displays of late but I think old Barnesy summed it up in his ST article when writing about England’s chances against France – ‘If England win, it will be due to a quality of performance rather than a gritty pack and a few penalty kicks. Winning without performance occurs only against inferior opposition.’

Quins have (thankfully) dogged it out recently against the more mediocre teams but as soon as they play the top teams they choke and lose their discipline – but the excuse invariably is that the ref is at fault and is usually described as the worst official to ever appear on a rugby ground in the history of the sport – that is, since the last worst-ever ref the week before…… Yawn.

Let’s hope the team are not blown away at Kingsholm, and with Easter and Strettle’s return they have enough nouse to make relegation a none issue in our penultimate home match against Oirish.

Just to remind everyone how close Deano’s original predictions were, the Roadmap for 06/07 started as:

	Game	Date	Venue	Prediction	Actual Points Gained	GP Total	Predicted finishing place (Target – 11th)
1	Irish	02/09/06	a	Close defeat (1bp)	1	1	11th
2	Glaws	09/09/07	h	Loss (0)	0	1	11th
3	Wasps	17/09/06	a	Loss (0)	0	1	11th
4	Tigers	23/09/06	h	Loss (0)	1	2	(1pt gain) 11th
5	Bristol	15/10/06	a	Close defeat (1bp)	0	2	(1pt loss) 11th
6	Saints	04/11/06	h	Win only (4pts)	5	7	(1pt gain) 11th
7	Falcons	10/11/06	a	Close defeat (1bp)	4	11	(3pt gain) 9th
8	Wuzz	17/11/06	h	Win + try bp (5)	4	15	(1pt loss) 10th
9	Sale	24/11/06	a	Loss (0)	1	16	(1pt gain) 10th
10	Sarries	22/12/06	h	Win only (4pts)	1	17	(3pt loss) 11th
11	Wuzz	27/12/06	a	Win only (4pts)	4	21	11th
Halfway				20		21	One point extra not quite enough to move any higher in league
12	Falcons	01/01/07	h	Win + try bp (5)	5	26	11th
13	Bath	06/01/07	h	Win only (4pts)	4	30	11th
14	Bath	27/01/07	a	Loss (0)	0	30	11th
15	Saints	17/02/07	a	Loss (0)	4	34	8th (4pt gain and 5 up on original target)
16	Bristol	24/02/07	h	Win only (4pts)	4	38	8th
17	Tigers	03/03/07	a	Loss (0)	1	39	8th (1pt gain to consolidate 8th slot)
18	Wasps	10/03/07	h	Close defeat (1bp)	1	40	8th
19	Glaws	17/03/07	a	Loss (0)
20	Irish	07/04/07	h	Win only (4pts)
21	Sarries	15/04/07	a	Close defeat (1bp)
22	Sale	28/04/07	h	Close defeat (1bp)
				40 points Total