Exeter Chiefs
Cup expectations?
Sandy Park
By ExpatChief
August 15 2013
ExpatChief looks at who's going to do wahat in the Heineken Cup
A look forward to The Heini
I remember someone saying that we need to publish articles like the recruitment ones so that we get to keep the site. With that in mind wrote up a brief pool by pool guide to next year's HC.
Pool 1
- Leinster AC Win, Rabo Winners
- Northampton HC group, AP Runner up
- Osprays HC group, Rabo 5th
- Castres HC group, Top 14 Winners
Whilst group 4 probably gets the title of group of death this is also a very hard group and will be determined at least in part by if Castres take the HC seriously. Leinster with their HC knowhow should come out on top but without Sexton and with a new coach they could be relatively vulnerable. If Castres do take this seriously then Saints should share points with them meaning the runner up ends up in the Amlin.
Pool 2
- Toulon HC Winners, Top 14 Runner up
- Cardiff Blues HC group, Rabo 9th
- Glasgow HC group, Rabo 3rd
- Exeter HC group, AP 6th
This is a matter of who comes second to Toulon and can they take all the points to be the 2nd runner up going through? Obviously I’m biased and would say that Exeter will come second but I think it’s going to come down to our trip up to Glasgow as I have already seen plenty of comments from Blues fans saying they are out already.
Pool 3
- Toulouse AC QF, Top 14 SF
- Saracens HC SF, AP SF
- Connacht HC group, Rabo 8th
- Zebre HC group, Rabo 12th
Very simple, Toulouse and Saracens through with the only question in which order? Probably come down to bonus points between the 2 of them.
Pool 4
- Clermont HC Runners up, Top 14 SF
- Harlequins HC QF, AP SF
- Scarlets HC group, Rabo 4th
- Metro HC group, Top 14 6th
To me this has Clermont winning the pool of death and Quins only having a chance of coming out of this group if Metro don’t take it seriously, otherwise it’s Metro or Quins into the Amlin.
Pool 5
- Ulster HC QF, Rabo Runner up
- Leicester HC QF, AP Winners
- Montpelier HC QF, Top 14 5th
- Treviso HC group, Rabo 7th
With 3 of this year’s HC quarter finalists in the same group it’s anyone’s guess who will come out on top but Treviso will come last even if there are easier places to go in the HC and the runner-up will probably end up in Amlin or not get any QF at all. Personally I see Leicester winning the group but it’s a real coin flip.
Pool 6
- Munster HC SF Rabo 6th
- Perpignan AC SF, Top 14 7th
- Edinburgh HC group, Rabo 10th
- Gloucester AC QF, AP 5th
Munster with their extra experience at this level should win the group and then it’s between Perpignan and Gloucester for the second place. Will depend a lot on if Perpignan take this seriously and how well they travel.
So in summary I think the qualifiers are: Pool 1 Leinster Pool 2 Toulon Pool 3 Toulouse or Saracens with the other going through as best loser Pool 4 Clermont Pool 5 Leicester but on a coin flip Pool 6 Munster The second best runner-up I see coming from Pool 2 or Pool 6. With probably Pool 5 missing out on Amlin QF
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15/08/2013 21:12
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Pool 2 as you pointed out this is Toulons pool to lose. Whoever dominates out of Exeter or Glasgow takes second, so that would be Exeter...
Pool 3 is between Sarries and Toulouse.. Sorry Connacht, this isnt your year, again.. Although they are capable of springing an upset on someone in Galway like they did with Quins, But only if the conditions favor it....
Pool 4 I agree, It all depends on how Metro perform, Quins will perform so Iam not doubting them.. On paper Metro have the squad to win entire the competition, but on the pitch they haven't quite found their gear yet. Maybe a better showing this year?, I personally doubt it, but stranger things have happened. If Metro don't perform then Clermont top the pool with Quins in second. I think Metro will come on strong once their squad and new signings starts to gel with Sexton at 10.. Perhaps next year they will be more of a threat? However I suspect they will start the competition poorly which will ultimately cost them come the end.
Pool 5, Last year Montpelier qualified out of a pool that contained two whipping boys, Unfortunately for them they went on to get thumped by Clermont. This year they aren't so fortunate. I can see Leicester beating them at Welford Road, but maybe not in France. I suspect Ulster will top the pool, but it will be close between the three of them. Perhaps it may even come down to who gives Treviso the biggest hiding or who has picked up the most Bonus Points throughout the other pool matches.
Pool 6, I suspect Munster will be quietly happy with their pool and will consider that it wont be to much trouble for them to make it to the advanced stages of the competition. So I suspect they wont take too many risks and will simply look to qualify rather than massacre their way through the pool.. I believe they will come on stronger in the latter stages of the competition like they did last season. I can see Gloucester scrapping it out with Perpignan with both going 1 and 1 over each other.. But ultimately I'am expecting it to be real close between 2nd and 3rd places. If Munster slip up on the road either in France or at Castle Grim, then it might make this pool interesting. I suspect also that Perpignan at home will want to spring a few surprise's on both Munster and Gloucester. Perhaps taking either a shock win or LBP over Munster in France. If this occurs then this could be a close pool. Personally I can see Munster at least winning 5 from 6 here with Perpignan in second and Gloucester in third. As you say though Expat it may come down to how they perform on the road and what bonus points they can take that makes the difference in this pool.
Pool 1 - Correct
Pool 2 - Winner tick, second cross also didn't make QF
Pool 3 - Correct
Pool 4 - Correct
Pool 5 - Wrong, also got second place QF which surprised me
Pool 6 - Correct, but also second didn't make QF
No bad or does it just mean that the pool stages are, overall, predictable?
Quote:ExpatChief
So how did I do?
Pool 1 - Correct
Pool 2 - Winner tick, second cross also didn't make QF
Pool 3 - Correct
Pool 4 - Correct
Pool 5 - Wrong, also got second place QF which surprised me
Pool 6 - Correct, but also second didn't make QF
No bad or does it just mean that the pool stages are, overall, predictable?
For me..
Pool 1 - Correct
Pool 2 - Winner correct.
Pool 3 - Correct
Pool 4 - Correct
Pool 5 - Winner correct, However it wasn't as close a pool as I predicted.
Pool 6 - Winner correct.
I feel slightly smug now...
To be honest looking back, it was rather predictable..
