By Neil Ravenscroft
October 24 2002

In his column this week, Neil Ravenscroft looks at how the club is performing in the League this season and comes to a surprising conclusion. Does anybody else use the same method I do to run a comparison on how you are doing from one season to the next? There hasn’t been an opportunity to do it for the last few seasons, as we haven’t spent two consecutive terms in the same Division for a while, but it is quite simple. You take last year’s results and compare them to this year’s, with the three teams that came down taking the place of the promoted teams and the three that came up doing the same with the relegated teams.
On that basis, you can have a look at how we are doing this year, compared with last. Unfortunately, when I did it earlier this week, it made for interesting reading.


2002/2003

Ipswich (H) 0 – 2 Points 0
Wolves (A) 1 – 3 Points 0
Shef Utd (A) 1 – 1 Points 1
Nott For (H) 2 – 1 Points 3
Brighton (A) 2 – 0 Points 3
Reading (H) 0 – 2 Points 0
Watford (A) 0 – 2 Points 0
Bradford (H) 0 – 1 Points 0
Roth’m (H) 3 – 4 Points 0
Millwall (A) 3 – 0 Points 3
Shef W (H) 1 – 0 Points 3
Derby (A) 2 – 2 Points 1
Burnley (A) 1 – 2 Points 0
Preston (H) 3 – 3 Points 1

Total 15

2001/2002

Albion (H) 2 – 1 Points 3
Wolves (A) 0 – 3 Points 0
Shef Utd (A) 1 – 0 Points 3
Nott For (H) 2 – 0 Points 3
Stockport (A) 2 – 0 Points 3
Barnsley (H) 2 – 1 Points 3
Watford (A) 1 – 2 Points 0
Bradford (H) 2 – 2 Points 1
Roth’m (H) 3 – 2 Points 3
Millwall (A) 2 – 2 Points 1
Shef Wed (H) 0 – 3 Points 0
Birmingham (A) 0 – 1 Points 0
Burnley (A) 2 – 5 Points 0
Preston (H) 1 – 2 Points 0

Total 20

Granted that this is a “worst case” scenario, as the Ipswich result is being compared with the Albion, whereas I could have used the draw with Man City, but I think it shows that we cannot afford to relax. We are 5 points worse off than in the equivalent games last season, (the crucial results being the home defeats to Reading, as we beat all the relegated teams at home last year, and Rotherham) and have to keep picking up home wins against the teams around and below us.
I know that it isn’t really a totally fair comparison, as it takes no account of the relative form of the opposition. For example, Rotherham looked a much better outfit than when they came to Bescot last season. Ipswich looked world beaters at this level, but I’d fancy our chances against them now. We went to the Custard Factory when they were playing really well, whereas a month later, we might have come away with something. We got the three points against Sheffield Utd away last year on a wave of adrenalin following that incredible run in to the end of the season and they are much more capable now. Indeed, if we had matched last year’s results so far and had 20 points, we’d be looking at a play off push.
What this does do, however, is give us a quick reality check. None of us will deny (I think) that we are playing better football than last season and look a much stronger team, but we certainly cannot afford to get complacent. It also means that we have to match some of the results we achieved last term against teams doing well this. Remember, we drew home and away to Portsmouth and took 4 points off Norwich last year.
We have all been confidently predicting a year of consolidation, with mid table obscurity as achievable. Opposition managers, Craig Brown being the latest, have said that we will not struggle this season and that even a top half finish is possible. However, we now have to start turning good performances into results.
It also means anything from Coventry is a bonus, following the 2 – 1 defeat at Highfield Road last term, and a win on Saturday would mean a big swing, leaving us with 18 compared to 20 points. A win against Palace would then leave it at 21 - 21!
This next week might be a bigger one than we thought.