By Keith Draft
April 14 2006

SNOOKER - Stick With Stevens at 16/1

By Keith Draft of Bettingzone.co.uk





Something more substantial then silent sighs were surely emitted when the draw for this year's World Championship was announced with Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins and Mark Williams berthed in the same quarter.

Such a clutch of talent (the trio share seven wins in the last ten renewals) in the bottom eight ensures two potential winners will exit before the semis.

It also guarantees certain players a smoother-than-usual passage to the sharp end in Sheffield, and the man who looks best placed to take advantage is perennial Crucible contender Matthew Stevens at 16/1.

It's simple, previous form is vital when looking at potential winners here and the Welshman has a superb record, finishing runner-up twice and reaching the last four on three occasions in the last six years (losing out 13-12 to eventual semi-finalist Paul Hunter in the other).

Shaun Murphy's victory 12 months ago bucked trends.

Prior to the Rotherham-based potter's success, the big names monopolised the sport's premier prize.

A small band of players contested eight of the previous nine finals.

Stephen Hendry: two wins, once runner-up, one semi-final.

Ronnie O'Sullivan: two wins, four semi-finals.

Mark Williams: two wins, once runner-up, one semi-final.

John Higgins: one win, once runner-up, two semi-finals.

Ken Doherty: one win, twice runner-up.

Peter Ebdon: one win, once runner-up, one semi-final.

Matthew Stevens: twice runner-up, three semi-finals.

Bar this seven, reigning world champ Murphy and Graeme Dott, who reached the final in 2004, are the only interlopers in a decade of deciders at The Crucible.

Sheffield's 17-day snooker marathon has not, generally speaking, been kind to young hopefuls and long-shots over the years.

Seventy one frames are required to lift the prize, twice as many as in other events (Stevens' win in the non-ranking Northern Ireland Trophy was achieved with just 24) which ensures that the best man over the two weeks is crowned world champion.

Class and strong Sheffield form are the two key factors that have shone through over the years and it seems foolish to look too far beyond those mentioned when eyeing potential winners here.

Draw and form are the other components and, this year, the former is going to have a huge bearing on the eventual winner and Stevens looks good value to take advantage of a comparatively easy route to the final.

The main selection opens up against two-time semi-finalist Joe Swail, a tough assignment on his day, but not at his best of late.

Ken Doherty is next up and could be tricky. The Irishman ended a long spell in the doldrums when beating Higgins in the Malta Cup final and has an excellent record here.

However he has suffered early exits in the last two seasons so while 20/1 is fair enough he only appeals as saver material.

Stephen Maguire looks like a future winner of this and is the most likely last-eight opponent, however the Scot has endured a woeful season and cannot be backed until he show signs of a return. The were none on offer during his 5-3 first-round reverse against Rick Walden in China recently.

Next up the semis where Stevens is fancied to take his revenge on Murphy and clinch his place in the final, where the Welshman, at his best, has the beating of anyone.

The only concern for Stevens is recent form as, barring victory in the non-ranking Northern Ireland Trophy, he has failed to shine, suffering early exits elsewhere.

However short-format first-to-fives don't suit his style and it should be remembered that he lost six of eight opening-round matches before finishing runner-up in Sheffield last season.

Admittedly, it would have been good to see him reach a couple of quarter-finals in recent events, however this unique test suits his game perfectly and it's worth taking a chance, especially at 16s.

That's the top half sorted, the bottom is far more testing with, as mentioned above, O'Sullivan, Higgins and Williams in the same quarter.

Anyway, at top prices of 3/1, 4/1 and 14/1 the outcome of these matches is going to have a huge effect on the tournament and makes a pre-tournament punt on any of this trio questionable.

O'Sullivan has not won a ranking tournament all season and has failed to impress, ability is not in question, current form and attitude are, and with a tough draw he looks scant value.

Higgins, at 4s, is better. The Scot has played the best snooker of the season to date, most memorably when beating Ronnie 10-9 in a thrilling final at the Masters, most notably when demolishing the same rival 9-2 to win the Grand Prix.

The Scot has spoken before of his desire to be a two-time World Champion and he will be fired-up for this, he also demonstrated that he remains in fair touch when only losing out 9-8 to Williams in the final of the China Open.

The victor that day ended a title-less run stretching back to the 2003 LG Cup and can be expected to improve on that, he will have to though to be fair, this will be a far tougher assignment.

Higgins and Williams are drawn to meet in round two with the winner set to face O'Sullivan in the last eight.

At this stage, Higgins would be my pick to reach the semis, but that is a tough call and at 4/1 from this type of draw he looks short enough.

Defending champ Murphy is next in on 13/2 and a case can be made from a particularly good quarter draw.

Peter Ebdon is the other big gun in the top eight but he proved no match for the youngster last season and has not inspired confidence so far this time around.

Beyond that James Wattana, Andy Hicks, David Gray, Michael Holt and Crucible legends Steve Davis and Jimmy White, all look eminently beatable.

Murphy hasn't won this season but looked in fair touch in Wales where he cruised to the final but then failed to spark against Stephen Lee. Murphy's other results have been mixed but a title defence is certain to concentrate to the mind.

It should be remembered that no player has ever successfully defended the title after winning it for the first time, although Ken Doherty and Joe Johnson both went close.

Murphy was a rightful winner last year but on their day, O'Sullivan, Higgins, Williams and Stevens look better all round players (to be fair Murphy still has time to improve), it would be no surprise to see him reach the semis, but that could be the end of the line for him this time around.

And the player to bring his challenge to a halt looks most likely to be Stevens, gaining revenge for last year's final reverse.

Getting this far into a preview without mentioning seven-time winner Stephen Hendry may seem ludicrous, but the Scot will have to raise his game significantly if he is to take a hand at the business end. While consistent this season, he has not really looked like winning an event.

Hendry's draw is not bad in the early stages with Lee the high-profile opponent, but in the shape of Ali Carterand Neil Robertson, Hendry could face a stiff challenge from two very talented players.

Robertson in particular looks to be on the up and should be winning titles in the next couple of seasons, he has the ammunition to put on a decent show here and can reach the quarter-finals.

With this in mind, take the 6s about him reaching the semis as, even at 50s, it is difficult to see him making final for an each-way return.