Tranmere Rovers
League One Survival Race Hots Up!
By Mark Ridgway
April 14 2011
With the last few games of the season approaching, Mark Ridgway takes a look at the possibilities that could see any of a large number of teams still get relegated from League One at the end of the season…….
Just like in the Premier League, the League One relegation battle is arguably more exciting than the competition at the top, with the likelihood that it will go right down to the wire in terms of those teams that will ultimately drop to League Two.
Realistically, the four relegation spots to the final tier of the Football League, are being contested by seven teams and with five games left for most, it’s anybody’s guess who those teams will be.
At the same stage last year Stockport had already been relegated and Wycombe were seven points from safety but compare it to this year which sees bottom side Plymouth Argyle (who have of course had 10 points deducted) still in with a faint hope of survival particularly helped by the fact that they beat relegation rivals Walsall on Saturday and are only seven points from safety with a crucial game in hand.
Granted that the game in hand is against high flying Southampton and had they not received the points deduction, they would be sitting with Tranmere above the drop zone with some breathing space on 46 points.
Second from bottom Swindon Town had been on a horrendous run of no win in 18 games but popped up with a crucial 1-0 victory at Brentford at the weekend thanks to Calvin Andrew driving home late on. However, they still have to face Notts County and also Tranmere on the final day, as well as mid table Sheffield Wednesday and Oldham Athletic, who will most likely both have nothing to play for.
At the same stage last year, Swindon were two points from the automatic promotion places and eventually lost in the play off final to Millwall.
The most alarmed side at present is likely to be Notts County who have lost the last eight games and are on a real slide. Having had 42 points by mid-march and seeming comfortable with the added bonus of five games in hand, they have now played four of those games in hand with zero points gained.
Their final game in hand of course is the massive six pointer at Tranmere next Tuesday night. County recently sacked their manager Paul Ince, and this week hired Martin Allen, who lost his first game at Yeovil 2-1 on Tuesday.
The one thing that sets Bristol Rovers apart from their relegations rivals is their goal difference of -31 which will technically act as an extra point to everyone else around them as the other six sides range between -12 and -18 – so a big difference.
They have threatened to put a good run together, but keep failing to create real momentum and their last six results include three wins, two draws and a defeat. Rovers’ remaining games all come mainly against teams in the top half as they still have to travel to the likes of Southampton, Bournemouth and Colchester ensuring a tricky run in.
Walsall gave themselves a massive boost with victory over Brentford on Tuesday and the win saw them leap frog Notts county and Bristol Rovers and ultimately out of the bottom four. League leaders Brighton could claim the League One title with victory over the Saddlers at the weekend, but their following three games are against out of form Sheffield Wednesday, Oldham Athletic and Charlton Athletic.
Walsall will hope to have safety wrapped up, before a daunting trip to Southampton on the final day. The club were bottom at Christmas, but a decent second half to the season has given them a fighting chance.
A thriller at the Withdean on Tuesday saw Dagenham and Redbridge lose 4-3 to Brighton, with the Seagulls claiming promotion in the process, however they will have planned to have it much easier than it was. The Daggers have also given themselves a fighting chance recently, and survival is now in their hands with Tranmere and Plymouth still to play from the teams fighting the drop.
However they will be looking for maximum points from those games, along with Carlisle at home and trips to Huddersfield and Peterborough which will be tough. Their victory over Walsall at the weekend was convincing, and they will hope to take that confidence into the Easter period.
The only team out of the seven to be in the relegation fight last season was of course Tranmere so that experience could serve them well after last season’s final day survival at Stockport.
This season they have a game in hand on most, that being against Notts County and Rovers are five points better off than at the same stage last season whilst sitting the most comfortable out of those in danger on 46 points.
Still to play Dagenham, Notts County and Swindon at home, survival is definitely in their own hands. Win the next two games, and they are almost certain to be playing League One football next season.
Ridgway’s Predictions:
Plymouth – the deduction has killed them, they will struggle to catch up – 24th
Swindon – probably too little too late, as most above them are also picking up points – 23rd
Bristol Rovers – will be a close one, not sure if they can regain enough form – 22nd
Dag & Red – I think they will run out of steam, with difficult teams still to face – 21st
Notts County – I fancy Martin Allen to turn things around, and for them to survive – 20th
Walsall – confident they can secure the points to survive – 19th
Tranmere – will claim the necessary points, and should be safe with a few games left - 18th
To view the remaining League One Fixtures and have a go yourself at predicting how League One will pan out, why not take a look at the BBC League One Predictor.
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14/04/2011 18:27
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Then I ate his Liver.......... with some baked beans and a can of coke.
Brighton are promoted and will hopefully be joined by Soton and one of MK, Bmouth, Orient or 'Udders - Galpharm getting borin' now.
Losing 6 southern teams and gaining teams like Scunny, Preston, Sheff Utd, Chesterfield, Bury, Shrewsbury , maybe even Accrington would give L1 a much more northern twist though next year.
Just gotta hope we survive.
I think Martin Allen will do enough to keep County up at Dagenham's expense.
