By Nathan Jackson
May 6 2010

The final day is upon us and although the Imps aren't involved in a battle for either relegation or promotion, we will now take a look at all promotion and relegation issues involving League 2. Who will go down out of Grimsby, Barnet and Cheltenham? Who will make the Playoffs? And will Hartlepool's points deduction cost them dear in League One?

Well for Lincoln it's simple, in 20^th we're already at the highest place we can finish, whereas the lowest we could finish is 21^st. For that to happen Cheltenham would have to win and hope that we don't win, although there's very little difference in pride as to whether you finish 20^th or 21^st.

The most interesting battle of the day though is the relegation battle. Cheltenham are still theoretically involved, although they would need to lose at home to Accrington and have both Barnet and Grimsby beat Rochdale and Burton respectively. Even with that set of results, a goal swing of 6 goals would be required to send Cheltenham down. Therefore the likely team going down will be either Grimsby or Barnet.

If they went down, Barnet would continue a strange trend of teams getting relegated in their fifth year of life in the Football League, following on from Kidderminster, Rushden and Boston. Next year will be Hereford's fifth year. For Barnet to go down, they would have to match or better Grimsby's result. A draw would force Grimsby to have to win, whereas a win for Barnet would mean that the results to send Cheltenham down would need to occur for the Mariners survive.

Due to goal difference, Grimsby can only realistically survive if they win at Burton, a seemingly difficult task until you look at Burton's home record. They are one of the few sides who've lost more at home than they've won, although they'll be happy with their current 14^th place and would love a top half finish that a win could potentially bring. A draw would take Grimsby level on points with Barnet if the Bees lost, but that would require Barnet losing by six goals at home.

The race for the Playoff places is also expected to take several twists and turns. Rotherham and Aldershot are already there, Rotherham only need a point away at Hereford to guarantee being at home in the second leg. Morecambe are best placed to join them at the moment and just to a vastly superior goal difference over 8^th place Bury, they would only need a draw to guarantee their Playoff place.

Three points only separate the following five sides but with Dagenham travelling to Darlington, they go into the final day as heavy favourites to take the final Playoff spot. However, if they draw and Port Vale win, Dagenham would have to hope Morecambe lose and Bury fail to win to guarantee the Playoffs.

Bury and Northampton face each other, the latter having to win to stand any chance of the Playoffs. Bury can still theoretically make the Playoffs with only a draw, but they would require results to go their way and a goal swing of 14 goals over Dagenham. They will only guaranteed make the Playoffs if they win, Morecambe lose and/or Dagenham fail to win.

With the best goal difference out of anyone outside of the Playoff places, Port Vale's home game against a Shrewsbury side with nothing to play for could see them have a big advantage of the rest and arguably make them the favourites to crash the Playoff party. However, they can only make the Playoffs with a win, and even then they would need Dagenham and Bury both fail to win.

Although they have the same amount of points as Port Vale, Chesterfield have little realistic chance of making the Playoffs and they have a difficult home game against Bournemouth. A goal difference of -2 means that even if they win, they would have to rely on other results going their way and if it got down to goal difference, the only side they could finish above is Bury.

Northampton can only make the Playoffs with a win, and even then they're be relying on Chesterfield, Port Vale and Bury all fail to win, and Dagenham to lose. That is the only situation in which they can make the Playoffs.

Who's coming down from League One is a bit simpler. Tranmere are in the relegation zone at the moment and have a massively inferior goal difference to the rest. However, they will fancy their chances of escaping the drop as they travel to already relegated Stockport. Due to the goal difference though, you'd say that only a win would realistically guarantee them staying up.

Exeter face a Huddersfield side who are aiming for automatic promotion and are the side most at risk to falling into the drop zone. Much like Tranmere, they would realistically need a win to guarantee safety.

After fielding an ineligible player against Brighton, Hartlepool were deducted three points on Thursday and are now just a point above the drop zone. However, with a superior goal difference, they would only realistically go down if they failed to win and both Tranmere and Exeter won. A draw might also be enough as a Gillingham defeat away at Wycombe would put Hartlepool above them.

Gillingham haven't won away all season but know that because of the goal difference issues, only a draw would be required to stay up. They can only go down if they lose Tranmere, Exeter and Hartlepool all win. Despite still being involved mathematically, there's not a realistic chance that Orient will go down. They sit three points above the relegation zone and are 21 goals better off than Tranmere, mathematically they only need a draw to guarantee it but it would take an unprecedented set of results to send them down.

Who's going up and who's going down?

Discussion started by theimps.ka (IP Logged), 06/05/2010 15:22

theimps.ka
06/05/2010 15:22

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I Blame Paul Mayo
06/05/2010 21:24

I hope Trammere come down, looks like a decent ground and a good sized club.

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Kate Jackson
06/05/2010 21:43

Tranmere have an awesome ground. I like them as a club so don't really want them to struggle, but it'd be great to go to Prenton Park again. The away end is one of the steepest you'll ever encounter.

I'd be happy with anyone other that Exeter, unlike Gillingham you have to go a long way and are greeted with a shite ground at the other end.

Good Luck, Mr Gorsky

http://twitter.com/#!/katejackson84
http://www.katejackson84.blogspot.com

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