By Craig Muncey
February 7 2016

Start of another 6 nations campaign for Wales,and what does this one have in store? Wales start off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin today, and this piece looks at what I see as the key battles and my predicted winner and by how many.

Team Selections

Ireland have a number of players currently injured plus the retirement from international rugby of Paul O'Connell to deal with.  "Paulie" was a huge presence in the Irish team and a world class player, his loss as was with Brian O'Driscoll in recent years, will have a big effect on the side.  Experienced players such as new captain Rory Best, Jamie Heaslip, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray will need to step up in leadership roles.

Will be interesting to see how Jack McGrath, Rory Best and Nathan White go, as well as O'Connell's replacement, Mike McCarthy, he has played a number of times for Ireland but pretty much with the mindset knowing he is a back up, this is now his chance to nail down the 5 shirt, so a different type of pressure.  Back row is also a new unit succumbed by injuries, CJ Stander is an outstanding prospect, who can play right acrosss the 3 positions but plays 6 today, Jamie Heaslip as usual is at 8, and then Tommy O'Donnell at 7, all strong physical players, so will be interesting to see how that balance goes.

Ireland have their usual half backs, but be interesting to see if Sexton is recovered from his most recent head knock, Robbie Henshaw and Jarad Payne in the centres, and then a back three again hit by injuries, of versatile Keith Earls and Andrew Trimble on the wings, and Simon Zebo playing at 15, not his regular position, but can offer a different threat to Wales from that position than what Rob Kearney who is out injured, can offer.

Wales also have a few injuries, which in the build up to this match seems to have been missed.  Leigh Halfpenny, Liam Williams, Scott Williams and Rhys Webb, all still unavailable.  However, the return of Jonathan Davies back in the centre is a huge boost for the side, especially with Scott Williams missing, Wales struggled during the World Cup in this position with both being unavailable, so Davies and Jamie Roberts back, is great for the side. 

Gareth Anscombe has recovered from injury to play at 15 today, which is not his regular position for the Cardiff Blues, wingers are George North who has been struggling for form in a Wales shirt for a while, so hopefully will see a strong performance, plus the return of Cardiff Blues winger Tom James, who has been in outstanding form all season.  Half backs are Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies who both had outstanding World Cup's.  Front row springs a surprise with Rob Evans playing at prop, alongide Scott Baldwin and Sansom Lee, with the second row combination continuing of Luke Charteris and a Welsh great, and I am not using this description lightly, of Alun-Wyn Jones who wins his 95th cap for Wales.  The back row has been changed from the usual breakaway trio, with Sam Warburton moving across to 6, Justin Tipuric at 7 and the usual 8 of Taulupe Faletau.

Things To Look Out For/Key Battles

Ireland no doubt will test Gareth Anscombe at the back for Wales today, they have an outstanding kicking strategist in Jonny Sexton, so expect aerial bombs straight down the middle, moving him around in the back three and cross field diagional kicks for Anscombe to be tested on.  Ireland also will target the scrum and in particular Rob Evans, who starts today.  Wales themselves came out and said one of the reasons they choose Evans is due to the referee today, Jerome Garces, and his interpretation of the scrum rule, where Gethin Jenkins has been pinged previously a number of times by the French referee.  I cannot think there is too many sports in the world, where an official in the middle has such a big say on team selections. 

Ireland will look to win the breakdown battle, and have 3 players in the back row who are strong physical players are all decent ball carriers, I expect Ireland to try and smash off the ball the likes of Tipuric and Warburton, and target them making tackles on their back rowers, thus taking them out of breakdown battles.  I fully expect Ireland to keep it quiet tight, suck Wales into a battle, go through the phases until going wide either by hand or by foot.

Wales have come out in the press and are saying they are looking to play a more positive brand of rugby.  I certainly think with Anscombe in the side and his distribution skills when Wales are in possession will be a big asset.  Anscombe has a great range of passing, and if required, Wales can go wider quicker, and with Tom James in the form he is in, you would like to see Wales testing Andrew Trimble early in defence.

Welsh back row also suggests looking to play a faster brand of rugby, with two predominently opensides in Warburton and Tipuric playing.  Warburton's role will be slightly adapted to usual, will have to be involved in a bit more ball carrying, and his defensive work at set pieces will be tested.  Tipuric is a naturally gifted rugby player, who Wales will want to see out wider in the back line probing and trying to get mismatches with Irish front five forwards in the defensive line.

Prediction.

Should be a great watch in Dublin with a great atmosphere expected by both sets of fans, who are not known for being quiet. 

I expect at the end of the match though for a Wales victory by a 10 point margin.

Hope you have enjoyed the article, and I hope we all enjoy watching the game whether you are watching at home, in a pub or for those lucky thousands watching in the Aviva Stadium.