By Zoot
May 12 2005

Zoot gives us his thoughts about the most important game of the season! Gloucester, at Twickenham, this Saturday, at stake the final place in next season's European Cup. And so we come to the last hurrah – one game to decide who plays Dimano Bucharesti and Gran Parma next season, and who gets Toulouse, the Ospreys and Munster. One game to decide who has their European games widely ignored by press and spectators, and who will have their fixtures against high profile teams featured live on Sky, at any time of their choosing between 7.45 on a Friday night and 5pm on a Sunday. One game – winner takes all, and nobody worries about whether Sale’s bonus point against Irish or Bath’s points difference will affect the outcome.

Well it must be all of what, twelve days, since Saracens last beat Gloucester? Not only did the Men in Black (for they were indeed wearing the “home” strip – a rare event at away games) chalk up their first ever win at Kingsholm, but they also completed their first ever double over the Cherry and Whites. The margins of the two wins suggest evenly matched teams – five points back in November at Vicarage Road, and a single point at Kingsholm at the end of April. The aggregate score over two games of 28-22 to Sarries also indicates a couple of fairly dour, hard fought games.

It is unlikely, with the prize at stake, that Saturday’s encounter at HQ will be any different, and it is a fair bet that at the end of the 80 minutes there will be single score in it again. Whatever, the game will undoubtedly play second fiddle to the main event of the Championship game, and I for one would rather see the game played at a neutral ground in front of just the Sarries and Glos faithful instead of being seen as a curtain raiser for Leicester and Wasps, with the inevitable disparaging remarks from our friends in the press. Already this week both teams have been treated to the “mid-table mediocrity” school of journalism (yes, you Barnes, and you, Butler!). Ah well, makes a change from “Underachieving Sarries”.

The recent form of the two teams has been in stark contrast. Sarries have moved up the table rung by rung since Christmas, enjoying 8 wins in the ZP and only two defeats under Steve Diamond. While they have never really fired on all cylinders during that time, they have acquired the habit of winning when not playing particularly well. Gloucester meanwhile had lost four on the bounce at Kingsholm (3 of them in the league), before the weekend win over Newcastle, an almost unheard of phenomenon in the West Country. They have been decimated by injuries, and have lost Vickery, Garvey, Paul, Fanolua, Goodridge, Azam and a host of others in recent weeks and now find themselves without the services of Jake Boer for the weekend with a hand injury. Andy Hazell has also been advised to stand down from the game following two recent concussions. It is not only bad new for Gloucester, but also England, as the unfortunate Hazell will now miss the Churchill Cup games as well.

Gloucester have delayed naming their team until Friday and are working hard to get the likes of Vickery, Garvey and Fanolua fit for Saturday.

Sarries stick largely with the side that have been doing the business over the last few months, the main casualty being Nicky Little, who has started at fly half in the last two wins, but now finds himself outside the matchday 22. Perhaps a touch harsh on the hardworking Little, but no-one can accuse Steve Diamond of sentiment, and now that Glen Jackson is fully fit, he rightly starts at 10. The versatile Mark Bartholomeusz covers Glen (and most of the rest of the back-line) from the bench. Ben Skirving again keeps Taine Randell warming the woodwork, and Taine will be hoping that when he does get on this week it will not be as replacement prop! The only other change from the Worcester game is at hooker where Ibanez starts and Cairns subs. Richard Haughton is again a replacement, but as he has not featured in first team action since January, it is unlikely he will see much game-time unless there is an injury.

Sarries may have a small psychological edge going into the game – the recent win at Castle Grim will have buoyed confidence, but all the same, Gloucester will point to missed opportunities from simple kicks, and a number of controversial decisions (at least to the Shed!) that could have rendered the result wholly different. Gloucester, as with Sarries, have been struggling with the kicking game of late. The misses from McCrae and Gomersall in the Sarries game could have made all the difference, and in the Wildcard Semi-Final, it was only the last two fairly straightforward kicks for McCrae that finally took Glos out of the reach of Newcastle. Neither team will be relishing the thought of a 40 metre kick to win the game on Saturday.

The set piece as ever will be crucial. In the last game between these two, Sarries held sway in the scrums, while Gloucester dominated the line-out with the ever impressive Alex Brown having a field day. There were rumours that Glos had sussed Sarries line-out calls. If true, let’s hope we have changed them – if not, then Messrs Cairns and Ibanez need to sharpen up their throwing skills before Saturday.

The introduction of James Forrester at centre in recent games at Kingsholm may have raised a few eyebrows, but he scored two tries in the victory against Newcastle, and Messrs Sorrell and Harris will not be relishing the thought of a 16 stone, 6 feet 5 centre running at them. If he is to revert back to his usual position at flanker, it is likely that Terry Fanolua will be fit again, so either way there will be little respite for the Sarries centres.

In the loose, the loss of Hazell and Boer will be a blow to Gloucester, but a probable back row of Balding, Narraway and Forrester will not lack for pace or aggression, and the Sarries 6,7,8 shirts will be in for a tough afternoon. Andy Gomersall plays his last game for Gloucester and will be wanting to send his team-mates off with a win. Whether or not this is to be the last we see of Kyran Bracken as a Sarrie remains to be seen, but any influence he will have on the game will have to wait until later in the piece, as the fiery Mosese Rauluni keeps Bracks out of the starting lineup after an impressive display against Worcester.

But, as always in these one off games, form will go out of the window. I don’t like the phrase “who wants it more on the day” – it implies that players don’t care, and I can’t believe that any one of the guys on show on Saturday “want” top class European Rugby more than any of the 43 others. What it will come down to is who can hold their discipline, and who can maybe just conjure that little bit of magic when the defences will be at their hardest to break down. The most likely candidates for the latter are James Simpson-Daniel and Thomas Castaignede, who will hopefully show some of their skills amongst what is likely to be a forward dominated battle.

So, as we approach the final chapter of a long hard season, it ends as it started - at Twickenham. I would love to think that we will be going into the last quarter without the thought of a heart-pounding finale. But I think that it will be another close encounter between these two teams, and if ends as it started at HQ with a 13-11 win for Sarries, then that will do nicely!

Teams:

Saracens: Lloyd, Ibanez,Visagie; Fullarton, Raiwalui; Skirving, Hill, Vyvyan (capt); Rauluni, Jackson; Vaikona, Harris, Sorrell, Johnston, Castaignede.
Subs: Cairns, Yates, Chesney, Randell; Bracken, Bartholomeusz; Haughton.

Gloucester: tba

Referee: Tony Spreadbury
Touch judges: Andy Watson, Ashley Reay
Assessor: Brian Campsall
Television match official: Geoff Warren

Prediction: Sarries by 7