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By Behind the Bench
January 14 2016

After the unbeaten run came to an end with a six point loss at Harlequins, Saracens return to NW4 to chase the win which should not only assure Quarter Final qualification, in stark contrast to last season's skin of the teeth effort, but a home in the last eight, presumably at Twickenham again as in 2013 when Ulster were the opponents .

Saracens will probably deploy a full strength side as they aim to get as close to top seeding as possible, with the option of then modifying the side for the trip to Toulouse and perhaps the home match with Bath sandwiched between Europe and the Six Nations. There's no disgrace losing to Harlequins at the moment, with two of the tries down to fine moments of invention and quick thinking, and the hosts enjoying a large majority and territory was probably to be expected although they missed far more tackles than their hosts, although Will Fraser and Maro Itoje completed 16 apiece without missing one. They did generally remain solid in the scrum and lineout, keeping all of their own throws and stealing three of Quins. So, with the obvious exception of Rhys Gill's sending off, not that much went wrong, as it still remained a one point game until the closing stages, and, on another day, could easily have been a narrow victory. Probably more of a worry was the loss of the in-form George Kruis, who is following the return to play concussion protocols. Duncan Taylor also had a head injury assessment during the game, so may be rested.
 
In a miserable season for the Irish provinces in the European top flight competition, and indeed for most of the Guinness Pro12 sides, Ulster seemed to be heading towards the exit door too, finding themselves incredibly 23-0 down at half time to an Oyonnax side who continue to struggle in the Top14 and were comprehensively beaten home and away from Saracens, but proved to be more of a threat having achieved forward dominance. However, Ulster staged one of the best comebacks in European competition to win 24-23, with just three minutes to spare through a Jackson penalty, and keep their hopes alive, and, irrespectively of the result on Saturday, would have a decent chance of a best runners up spot with a five point win against Oyonnax on the final weekend. The team selections of some of Saracens' recent opponents have attracted attention, most notably Leicester, and it seems that a starting XV short of full strength may have played a role in Ulster's slow start in France, most notably with influential half back duo Ruan Pienaar and Paddy Jackson starting the contest on the bench. Interestingly, back in November, the line up announced ahead of the postponed Oyonnax game was considerably different to that fielded a week later against Sarries in Belfast, but there will be no question of an adjusted side this time, for a side who showed their true ability by beating Toulouse home and away, the latter making a nonsense of Ulster's previous struggles to get key results away from home.
 
Possible line ups could be as follows: Alex Goode at full back, having made most metres by quite some distance in the Quins game, with Chris Ashton remaining on the right win, buoyed by that overdue England recall. At centre, Marcelo Bosch could team up with Brad Barritt, with Owen Farrell alongside Richard Wigglesworth in the half backs. Into the forwards, and Mako Vunipola should feature alongside Schalk Brits and Petrus du Plessis, with Jim Hamilton slotting in at lock alongside Maro Itoje, and a back row of Michael Rhodes, Will Fraser and Billy Vunipola. Ulster have been buoyed by some players returning from injury, most notably in the bacls, although Tommy Bowe, Peter Nelson and Iain Henderson are long term absentees, and number 8 Nick Williams looks likely to be missing due to an injury suffered in Oyonnax. Jared Payne may be ready to make a return from injury at full back, displacing Craig Gilroy to his usual left wing berth. Darren Cave could be another returnee at 13 alongside Stuart McCloskey, who represented the main running threat in France, with Andrew Trimble returning to the right wing. Jackson and Pienaar look assured to start in the half backs. The selection of the front row would seem crucial to Ulster's hopes, given their poor performance in the scrum at times last week, so will probably start with loosehead Callum Black, hooker and captain Rory Best, and tighthead Ricky Lutton, if Wiehahn Herbst is not back from injury. Lewis Stevenson and Franco van der Merwe should make up the lock combination, with a back row comprised of Robbie Diack, Chris Henry and Roger Wilson.
 
Looking at the wider picture ahead of the final pair of games, there are 13 sides still with various likelihoods of reaching the last eight. Saracens are in control of Pool 1 and would still have a chance of finishing top of the table even if losing to Ulster, but Toulouse are out of contention, meaning that if results go their way, Sarries could be top seeds, although how significant this might be is open to question. Pool 2 serves up an intriguing and enduring three way battle between ASM Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, who have not progressed from their pool since 2010 and Exeter Chiefs. With Clermont not seeming as invincible as previous seasons, the Friday night match in Swansea may be the time for the Welsh region to cast years of underachievement behind them and set up an intriguing final day at Exeter, who really need to avoid defeat at Bordeaux-Begles in the penultimate match to maintain an interest. In Pool 3, Racing 92 look to have enough to secure top spot, with this Sunday's game between Northampton Saints and Glasgow Warriors seeing the loser rendered out of contention, with Scarlets already unable to progress. Leicester continue to lead Pool 4, the only other side apart from Saracens to have won all four matches. Stade Francais ended Munster's hopes in Paris, winning, despite being down to 14 men, and the final match in Paris between the top two could be a fascinating decider for the pool. Pool 5 just about has three sides in contention, with Wasps leading at the moment, but having to travel to Toulon before a final match at home to Leinster. Bath will probably need to win in Dublin this weekend to keep the chance of overhauling Toulon in the final match at the Rec, and this could be the most eye-catching finish of them all. 

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COME BACK TO WHAT YOU KNOW
Discussion started by TheSaracens.com , 14/01/2016 08:30
TheSaracens.com
14/01/2016 08:30
Thanks as always BTB



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2016:01:26:22:05:25 by Darraghgirl.

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davidthesarrie
14/01/2016 12:05
Thanks for the preview. Interesting and informative as always. well done!

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Seany_Boy0511
15/01/2016 22:21
Superb preview, I do believe that we will be allowed to play at AzP for the quarter final (if it's home) and then probably HQ for the Semi (if all goes well)

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