Leicester Tigers
Ospreys v Tigers Match Preview
By Duncan Keene
January 9 2013
Flood warning in West Wales Toby Flood was cleared at a hearing on Tuesday 8th January in to an alleged tip tackle. Luckily for him, the judges seem to have watched the whole tackle and all the players involved in it, many media commentators including Austin Healey have just looked at the angle of Goode’s body and not how it got there. His presence is a big boost to Tigers in a massive Pool match away to Ospreys’ at the Liberty Stadium, Swansea on January 20th – 3pm Kickoff.
Before we start, let’s get one thing straight. This is not technically a ‘Must-Win’ game or a pool decider. A win would be fantastic. 5 points perfect, but whatever we do, Toulouse have a way to get ahead of us next week* and however badly we do, we have a chance to top the group next week. So let’s not get too carried away with a win or too depressed at a loss, particularly if we pick up a point.
*If we assume Toulouse will get 5 points vs Treviso in France.
As it stands, Tigers are top on 14 points, Toulouse second on 13 and Ospreys third on 9. To threaten the top, Ospreys really need 10 match points from rounds 5 and 6 (Tigers at Home, Treviso Away), it’s looking like 19 is going to be the minimum required for a best runner up spot, so they really need a maximum haul on Sunday. Hopefully, they won’t settle for just trying to beat the English and will play loose early chasing the 4 tries.
Assuming Toulouse get their 5 points that means they go in to the last round on 18. Should Tigers get 1 point from Wales then we would play Toulouse 3 points behind and needing a 4-0 or 5-1 match points win to avoid a 19pt tie and the French side progressing with a superior head to head record. Should it all go horribly wrong this weekend, Tigers would head to Welford Road on 14 points. The same 4-0 or 5-1 (or 5-0) result would be needed but also with more tries than Toulouse managed against us in France or matching that one try and beating their 14 point margin of victory. To make a 4-1 victory against Toulouse good enough, we need more than one point vs Ospreys. Keep your eyes open for odd possibilities: a draw or getting both the try and losing bonus points could be great scenarios for Tigers. Should we win in Swansea we get a bit of a safety net, taking 18 or 19 points in to the last round and playing last we would know if one or two points could be enough to sneak through as a runner up, but we could still be needing to beat Toulouse to go through.
Tigers have played Ospreys seven times in the Heineken Cup, with 4 wins, 2 losses and that memorable draw at Welford Road in Billy Twelvetrees’ debut. Our biggest losing margin is six points, so there is reason to hope we can gain at least that one important point. We also met twice at Twickenham in Anglo-Welsh finals, sharing the spoils with one win apiece. In terms of qualification, it would suit both sides to have an open game like the 41-35 2007 final, but we are more likely to get a low scoring affair like in December 2005 where Tigers came away with a last gasp 17-15 victory, or 2010 where Ospreys won 17-12 holding out in a frantic spell where Lee Byrne accidentally ended up as a 16th player in the defensive line. Without wishing to dwell on that incident, the lack of any changes since to player substitution protocol make it just as likely to happen again. Top marks as always to those hard working ERC suits in Dublin.
Ospreys strike me as a far more agreeable outfit under Steve Tandy, with a young, honest core far removed from the Galacticos of old. That isn’t to say they are a poorer team for the lack of Henson et al, clearly they miss the quality of Shane Williams and the tenacity and consistency of Tommy Bowe among others to leave, but those left are an impressive side that have put in some big performances in the last 6 months. Quality sides show long term class and short term form. Three matches in particular show Ospreys’ class. Winning the Rabodirect Pro12 playoffs last year in stunning fashion away to Leinster, they came from nine points down to clinch the game 31-30 in the last minute. I know I will not convince the Celtic league critics, but Leinster were European Champions returning to their home turf, they’d had 8 days rest, and I can’t fathom why they would not want to have wanted to win another trophy, it was a stunning win for the only really successful Welsh Region. Ospreys’ recent form is strong, the 17-6 win over Toulouse in December and a 32-3 demolition of Scarlets in the boxing day West Wales derby sell-out days later, showing a ruthless edge to Tandy’s side.
Tigers are specialising in scrappy wins with an irritating trend of pressure not turning to points. The spirit of the team is still much in evidence. Not many can afford Worcester a 14 point head start, and lesser teams would have bowed under the pressure of 50 tackles in the first 20 minutes and shipped a flood of points last Friday. There are signs of light for Tigers in the passion shown by the players. With many Tigers’ stars rested last weekend and a 9 day build up to this game there must be no excuses, this has to be our best performance of the season so far. What we give for a repeat of the 32-18 victory on our last Heineken Cup outing in Wales at the Parc Y Scarlets in January 2011?
The front row sees a clash of two of the best in Europe, certainly at Tight head prop and arguably across the whole row. Adam Jones and Dan Cole should need little introduction, most people’s shoe-in’s for the Lions (except some national “journalists”, notably Stephen Jones) hopefully both will remain fit and their battle to be first choice can continue through to June. I expect both to get test caps and dominate the Australians. They will have far tougher challenges than the Aussies on Sunday up against the respective Looseheads. Marcos Ayerza will start for Tigers, he adds an extra dimension to our play at best, but can get on the wrong side of referees. Cockerill will keep Mulipola in reserve to unleash if that happens. 8 times Wales capped Ryan Bevington will play loosehead for Ospreys, keeping Duncan Jones out of the team. Jones should come on for the last half hour to show us a little bit of the old Ospreys and may lock horns again with Castrogiavanni off the Tigers’ bench. Most interesting for me is Tom Youngs fresh from his week off versus the shy and retiring Richard Hibbard, never one to be missed with his dyed blonde locks, he was of course involved in the infamous incident that effectively ended Martin Corry’s career when the Ex-England Captain was found guilty of eye gouging based on the verbal evidence of Hibbard who had previously alongside the then Ospreys’ coaching staff accused Julian White of the offence in the press. Nevertheless, he has matured in to a fine hooker, and is in a similar position to Youngs as second choice for his national team, behind Matthew Rees for 3 out of 4 of the Autumn Internationals. Youngs though played all of England’s games in the enforced absence of Dylan Hartley and is in top form. If the game was outside of Wales’ I’d see the front row as a relative strength for Tigers, with Youngs’ the difference in the scrum and loose. However it is in Wales, they grow an inch at home, and the ref is Irish, let’s not make the same mistakes as the past and waste all our attacking ball battering away with a scrum that isn’t being rewarded. I’m not saying we shouldn’t use it, but let’s try to get the ball out when we get the chance, and limit the number of scrums we take by choice.
The Second row is a big part of Tigers’ strong scrum. Louis Deacon gives a mean shunt. Parling will start alongside him, in a well-balanced all international partnership. I can’t see Cockerill going outside those two, but he will have a selection dilemma on the bench needing to pick 5 from Slater, Kitchener, Brett Deacon, Croft, Mafi, Salvi, Crane and Waldrom to make up his back row and two bench spots. How he must wish he could just pick a sixteenth man! I expect Mafi, Salvi and Crane to get the starting spots and Kitchener and Waldrom to be on the bench. Ian Gough and James King started both the Toulouse and Scarlets victory’s and should form an Ospreys second row partnership offering experience and youth in the absence of the injured Ian Evans. In the back row, Tipuric, Jones and Bearman have started the big wins over Toulouse and Scarlets, but Jonathan Thomas played the full 80 minutes last weekend against Zebre following a 20 minute cameo against Dragons on New Year’s Eve, and surely will be starting at 8 along with fellow international’s Jones the former Wales’ captain at 6 and rising star Tipuric at 7. Tipuric is unfortunate to play the same position as Sam Warburton but has amassed 10 caps and is regarded by many in the principality as one of the men to put right the national team’s Autumnal woes. There is some talk today of him nursing a shoulder injury, but I imagine he will pull through. Well travelled Samoan George Stowers lies in wait if Tipuric is out, and has been a thorn in Tigers’ side in the past particularly when at London Irish. The packs look evenly matched, Tipuric vs Salvi, Cole vs A. Jones, Deacon vs Gough look like very well matched pairings, if Tigers’ are to have an ascendency they need big games from Tom Youngs, Geoff Parling and Steve Mafi to boss the line-out and Salvi will need help at the breakdown from the whole team.
Behind the scrum, Tigers’ pair England’s Ben Youngs with the press villain of the moment, Toby Flood. Kahn Fotuali’I and Dan Biggar also form an international pairing, being on opposing sides for Samoa’s comfortable Autumn series win over Wales that saw the Pacific Islander’s overtake the Dragons relegating Wales to 9th and that awkward World Cup group with England and Australia. Fotuali’l came to Ospreys’ from the Canterbury Crusaders, at 30 years old he’s been around the New Zealand rugby scene for a long time and didn’t commit to Samoa until 2011, being made man of the match on his debut vs Japan. I don’t think any Tigers’ fans would ever underestimate a player with long links to the Crusaders, he’s a scrum half with fly half experience and had an absolute stormer at home to Toulouse. Out of contract this summer the Welsh press are rumouring moves to over half the Top 14, once upon a time this would be the kind of auction Tigers’ could afford to get involved in, but we all know it’s hard enough holding on to our own players. Kahn will be a massive obstacle on Sunday, and Youngs must be at his best to match and outwit him. Biggar is less of a stranger to Tigers’ fans, booting 51 points in 3 matches against us. He is an old fashioned classic Welsh fly half, with nerves of steel and a huge boot. Tigers’ need to get him under pressure in open play and limit his opportunities to go for the posts. Flood is a more attacking player when he gets on the goal line, but is a less reliable kicker than Biggar. Both sets of half backs can operate with good ball and on the back foot, whichever set can get on top and control the key moments will be crucial to this game.
Outside of the 10 shirt Ospreys’ should feature Ashley Beck and Andrew Bishop who recently took the region’s appearance record. Not quite like outlasting a David Matthews but an achievement nevertheless. They will be up against Anthony Allen and Manu Tuilagi. Tigers’ fans will be desperate to see Manu given the space we have seen him in for England, Ospreys’ will hope Bishop can marshall the powerful outside centre out of the game and get some ball to cause him problems of his own. Tigers just look like a better team with Allen playing, and he will want a big two weeks to push his claim for the six nations or prove the selectors wrong if as expected Billy Twelvetrees has ousted him from the EPS. On the Wings I expect Tigers to keep Morris and Thompstone in tandem, though the experience of Scott Hamilton often proves tempting to Cockerill in these circumstances. At some point I expect to see Tait tried on the wing to accommodate both him and Murphy, but for this week it seems a straight selection choice, Murphy surely must get the nod for leadership alone. Ospreys will probably play young Swansea wing centre Eli Walker (5 tries in 8 games) on one flank, Bridgend’s Ross Jones on the other and the experienced Richard Fussell at full back. Not household names like Byrne, Williams and Bowe that we have faced in the past, but good enough to beat Medard, Clerc and Huget in round 4 so let’s not underestimate them! Manu Tuilagi is the pick of the players available to both sides outside the 10 shirt, and he must rise to the occasion and show his talents in this game.
John Lacey will be referee, a very inexperienced man for such a big match. Lacey is a former Munster wing, playing in the late 90’s and scoring 4 tries in 6 Heineken cup matches. He’s reffed 3 Osprey’s games this year, one loss and two victories for the W’elsh region. It is no criticism of Lacey to suggest it another failing of ERC that this match has a referee that isn’t known to both sides.
Ospreys do not lose many at home. Have a better goal kicker and are on better form. They are solid in all the right areas with absolute class at 3, 7 and 10. They will rightly start the match as favourites. Tigers have 5 players starting that beat the All Blacks so should know about upsetting the odds. This has been marked in the calendar as a massive game since we lost in Toulouse. We’ve rested players and had a good build up; there can be no excuses for not putting a big performance in. But, the most important thing is where we are in two weeks, and that means getting home on Sunday, turning it around for the Toulouse game, and being at our best then. Whatever happens, that is our cup final. Our best omen for this week? We’re pretty damn good at semi finals.
See you all at the Liberty Stadium!
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2013:01:18:15:41:41 by Tiggs.
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