By Duncan Keane
September 10 2011

Ireland approach Rugby World Cup 2011 in awful form. Four losses in a row. Beaten at home by an average England side for the first time since 2003. There’s little solace to be found in the Emerald Isle’s previous world cup performances, never getting beyond the quarter finals, rarely producing competitive performances at that stage.

Are they doomed for quarter final failure again? Well, it’s certainly the most likely outcome, but this group of players will want more. They’ve got a puncher’s chance. Apart from New Zealand they’ve beaten every other international team, a hard core of winners from the powerhouse provinces, multiple 6 nations and Heineken Cup winners. Have their golden generation got one more great story in them? Recent form is a concern but even the All Blacks are wobbling, no team will feel completely confident at the moment. Optimistic Irish fans may see their team as the experts at peaking when they want, being at their best for the Heineken Cup and Six Nations, no need to worry about the warm-ups they’ll say.

Ireland should progress easily from their group. Their opponents are USA, Australia, Russia and Italy. The fixtures fall in that order, kindly spread over 4 weeks. It’s inconceivable that they could lose to USA, but they may be given a fright and struggle to get a try scoring bonus point. The match against Australia on Saturday 17^th September should decide the group. It’s a hard one to predict. If the Australia that beat the All blacks to win the tri nations and the Ireland that denied England a grand slam in the final six nations match turn up, then it’ll be a hell of a game, but if either of the Australia that lost to Samoa or the Ireland that lost to Scotland turn up then they will lose. The breakdown will be crucial and the battle between Pocock and the Irish flankers will be worth the admission price alone.

Russia should put up a better fight than USA, but they will both be targeting Italy more than Ireland as their possible second win. If all goes to form then Ireland vs Italy, the final match in the group stages on Sunday 2^nd October at 8.30 am UK time will effectively be the start of the knock-out rounds. On form, Ireland should have nothing to fear from Italy, with 15 wins in a row against the Azzurri, pessimistic Irishmen may feel the teams are too closely matched for that run to continue indefinitely, the matches between the sides fall in to two categories, times where Ireland have ran away with it, like the 51-24 away victory in Rome in the 2007 Six Nations, and close tight scrappy affairs where Ireland just squeak through like this year’s 13-11 victory in Rome. Ireland will be praying this match is an example of the former, if it is the latter then it will be hiding behind the sofa and viewing through fingers time from Belfast to Cork.

Central to the Ireland vs Italy game will be the scrum, if Ireland can gain parity here and win the favour of the referee then Italy’s strength will be nullified. Similarly, Irish strength at the breakdown will be something the Italian players want to target and they will hope the ref ensures Ireland only gain an advantage here if it is a legal one. Martin Castrogiavanni will remember Tigers recent match in Dublin where we couldn’t gain a scrum advantage and were outplayed and outthought at the breakdown and line out, he won’t want it to happen again. To stop the game being scrappy Ireland need to unleash their backs and play a flowing game that their provinces have shown the potential for. If they can’t then it may well come down to goal kicking.

Overall, this is a special group of Irish players. The multiple Heineken Cup winners teaming through their ranks is reminiscent of England’s 2003 squad. What Ireland need internationally is the attitude shift their provinces found after Munster’s first Heineken Cup win, a belief that they should be winning all games rather than desire and hope. There are two routes to glory for Ireland this Autumn, topping the group would give them a game against the second place side from the brutal group containing South Africa, Wales, Samoa and Fiji, all of whom will expect to reach the quarter finals, only two of whom will be successful. Losing to Australia means facing the Springboks unless upsets happen in Pool D. Not a disaster for Irish hopes of a semi final, as they have won three of their last four meetings with the South Africans, but that route sees a potential meeting with New Zealand looming ominously. Either way the chance of reaching that first semi final looks better than ever, but if they can defeat the Wallabies then Irish eyes will be looking at their first world cup final. They know they don’t fear Wales, Fiji, Samoa, England or France and they could well be the only opponents in their way.

Looking at their squad overall it’s clear this is a last chance for the giant influences of Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell to get Ireland to their best finish ever, and a chance hopefully for Geordan Murphy to grace the world stage with his unique talent.

The props selected are Sale’s new signing Tony Buckley, Ulster’s Court and Leinster pair Ciaran Healy and Mike Ross. Healy is apparently carrying an injury, but Ireland will hope to have him fit for their big games vs Australia and Italy. I predict an all Leinster pairing to start the matches. At hooker it’s an embarrassment of riches, Rory Best, Sean Cronin and Jerry Flannery of Ulster, Leinster and Munster respectively. I think the Ulsterman will hold the starting jersey. The locking unit is very experienced, possibly past their best but I wouldn’t be the one to tell them. Ex-Tiger Leo Cullen is likely to act as an experienced benchman and quality character around the camp, with the Munster men of O’Callaghan and O’Connell in the starting jerseys and Ryan not making the 22.

The back row is where Ireland’s serious wealth of talent lies. David Wallace will be a big loss, injured out of the tournament in a Manu Tuilagi tackle, but his replacement is a man I have a huge respect for, Shane Jennings was immense for Tigers filling the shoes of Neil Back. He will clearly start this tournament as the fifth of Ireland’s marauding back row superstars, but if they end up relying on him, he won’t let them down. The other members of this exclusive club are Ulster’s Ferris, Leinster’s Heaslip, Munster’s Leamy and my man of last year’s Heineken Cup, the incredible Sean O’brien of Leinster. I back him to be selected on either flank, hopefully at 7, probably alongside Ferris and Heaslip. O’Brien really could be one of the stars of this world cup, especially if he dominates the breakdown in that key Australia game and stops the Aussie’s getting quick ball.

I’m considerably less excited by the scrum halves available to Declan Kidney, Leinster pair Isacc Boss and Eoin Reddan are joined by Munster’s Murray. I guess Reddan will start, a good solid scrum half, and if his back row dominates he will look good. Hopefully he will be partnered by Jonny Sexton the young Leinsterman who gave a majestic performance breaking Northampton hearts in a pulsating Heineken Cup final in May. If the selectors back O’Gara instead they will be denying one of the Northern Hemisphere’s brightest talents. Whichever half backs are selected their job will be to put the team in the right positions and then release talisman Brian O’Driscoll and whomever partners him out of Gordon D’arcy or Paddy Wallace. The rousing victory over England in March had the Leinster men (BOD and D’arcy) together and the partnership is unlikely to be broken.

Outside that, Kidney has options. Tommy Bowe the Ospreys flying wing and thorn in Tigers’ and England’s side will surely take one wing spot. Munster’s Keith Earls filled in at Full-Back during the six nations, but Kidney has said he was unsatisfied without a specialist, meaning it’s a straight shoot out between Rob Kearney and Geordan Murphy for full back, with Earls or Trimble taking the other wing spot. Fergus McFadden covers centre and wing but surely is just along for the ride. Kearney has consistently been selected ahead of Murphy in the last few years and this is unlikely to change, Earls or Trimble is a very close shout. I suspect Earls will get the call.

So my team would be:

1)       Healy

2)       Best

3)       Ross

4)       O’Callaghan

5)       O’Connell

6)       Ferris

7)       O’Brian

8)       Heaslip

9)       Reddin

10)   Sexton

11)   Bowe

12)   D’arcy

13)   O’Driscoll

14)   Earls

15)   Kearney

Bench:

16)   Court

17)   Flannery

18)   Cullen

19)   Leamy

20)   Boss

21)   O’Gara

22)   Trimble

Hopefully I’m wrong and Geordan Murphy will get a chance to shine.

Par score for Ireland would be a close loss to Australia and a close loss to South Africa, the usual quarterfinal exit. Losing in the quarters after beating Australia would be a failure, not getting out of the group would be a failure, any result where they get past the quarters must be a success as it’d be their best tournament ever, in terms of winning the thing, they’re underdogs, outsiders, in their lowest ranking position for years. In many ways, exactly where the Irish like to be.

Ireland RWC Preview

Discussion started by TheLeicesterTigers.co.uk , 10/09/2011 20:53

TheLeicesterTigers.co.uk
10/09/2011 20:53

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:17:10:20:43 by Stephen Bath.

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Tiggs
17/09/2011 10:20

Many thanks !!

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Duncan Keene
18/09/2011 21:56

Glad i got the starting 15 vs Australia right!

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Tiggs
18/09/2011 22:31

And Ireland were too !!!!!!!!!!

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