By kwin
February 23 2003

Here's the fifth in my occasional look at the spread-betting market, focusing on the ZP index, and revealing the absolute financial disaster that was last time's "kwin's tips".

My last look at the market was in November - and I did warn you then: my most profitable betting friend swears blind that he makes the most money by taking every tip I give him and doing the opposite.  Well, if he read my column in November he would have cleaned up nicely.

Here's the current prices for the ZP Index at Sporting Index. I've shown price on Friday along with (for interest) the prices at the various dates when I wrote my last articles. I've also included the current league position (first column)

TEAM		21 Feb	19 Nov	1 Oct	11 Sept	OPEN
Gloucester	1	97-100	89-92	81-84	75-78	65-68
Sale	2	68- 71	30-33	33-36	26-29	27-30
Leicester	3	55- 58	81-84	72-75	83-86	84-87
Wasps	5	43- 46	35-38	47-50	30-33	29-32
Northampton	6	33- 36	40-43	48-51	47-50	50-53
Leeds Tykes	4	24- 27	32-35	9-12	6- 9	1- 3
Saracens	7	6-  9	8-11	20-23	32-35	14-17
Bristol	10	2-  4	1- 3	2- 4	2- 5	8-11
Harlequins	8	2-  4	10-13	3- 6	9-12	13-16
Lon Irish	9	1-  3	1- 3	5- 8	13-16	30-33
Bath	12	0.1-  1	3- 5	5- 8	6- 9	8-11
Newcastle	11	0.1 - 1	0.5  2	3- 6	2- 5	6- 9

What do the prices mean? Well,  index is based on the league position, at the end of the season. The team finishing first will be 'worth' 100 points, 2nd: 80 points 3rd: 60 points 4th: 40 points 5th: 30 points 6th: 20 points 7th: 10 points 8th: 5 points 9th-12th: 0 points.  In the interim you can buy or sell any team at the prices shown - eg Leeds you can buy at 27 OR sell at 24. At the end of the season the value of Leeds will be fixed according to their position in the league and you will have made a profit (or loss) of some number of points. You might have bet £2 a point...or £20 a point...or £200 a point....  

PROFIT AND LOSS

Last month I left you with three tips.

Nov Tip #1: Hold Tigers:  
I had bought them  75 on 1 Oct.  So on 19 November I could have closed out at 81 for a six point profit. Naturally I spurned this,  believing they would win the league. The value now? Just 55 turning my putative profit into a 20 point loss.  If you jumped in with me on 19/11 and bought at 84 you'll be sitting on a 29 point loss (ouch).  What next? Well, I think if you think they'll come third or better, hold on for now... and see more on Leicester below.

Nov Tip #2: Sell Gloucester:  
Sold at 89. Now hot favourites for the title, and would cost 100 close out, at a loss of 11 points - so I'm toast once more. What next? Well there's no point in closing out at 100 (it can't get any worse) If you sold with me, hold on, and hope they slip up and come second.

Nov Tip #3 Buy Quins: Against my better judgement indeed. Bought at 13 sell at 2 an 11 point loss. (Note for self: never, never, never make optimistic bets about Quins.  No, never. Never)

Altogether – catastrophe in the betting front: Don't say you weren't warned!

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Let's have a look at the market movers in the last three months.

The first thing to notice is the biggest gainer since 19 Nov: Sale. You could have bought them at 33, now worth 68. That's the tip I should have made. 

Wasps have also been solid performers, moving up in price as they climb the league.  I fancied Wasps at the beginning of the season (and tipped them) but missed out tipping them three months ago.

On the downside, a couple of teams have fell sharply in price: Leicester, discussed above....and Quins.  How did I manage to get both of them??

LEEDS

Leeds still provide the biggest anomaly in the market. Still lying 4th, they are priced at just 24-27 - ie to finish between 5th and 6th.  In fact they've been consistently valued well below their standing i all season, showing a general incredulity at the results they've been achieving.  If you're a Tykes fan there's an opportunity for an optimistic up bet still.

OUTLOOK

The ZP index often solidifies at the tail end of the season, and offers less chance for large swings, and less excitement. 

Why is this? Well, at the top end of the table the final placings begin to be more and more predictable, and the prices less volatile. In the top two we are starting to see that... but this year the seriously congestion at 3rd-5th might make the run-in more interesting than usual...

At the other end of the table, however, while lots of action remains with plenty of room for the closely packed teams to climb up and down, the structure of this bet destroys the excitement - as all the places from 9th to 12th are worth the same (zero points) so the market becomes dead.   Last year SPIN set up a relegation index focusing on the bottom four places. If they do again, I'll cover it - it was lots of fun.

KWIN'S TIPS

For me, I'd ignore Leeds, I share the market's view that they won't quite last to the end of the season (and the league is VERY close from 3rd to 6th, so it's terribly easy for them to slip three places.

The place where I think there might be a bet is in the second and third. Let's have a look at the table again:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	TB	LB	Points
Gloucester	16	13	1	2	441	268	4	2	60
Sharks	16	11	1	4	429	310	6	1	53
Leicester Tigers	16	10	0	6	334	267	3	1	44
Leeds Tykes	16	9	2	5	356	298	0	4	44
London Wasps	16	8	2	6	391	347	4	4	44
Northampton Saints	16	8	0	8	336	289	3	4	39

Focus on Sale: Seven points behind Glos, and nine ahead of the next three teams.  Second place (worth 80) looks pretty assured, doesn't it?  So why is Sale's price just 68-71?  Perhaps there is opportunity to buy, for a 9 point profit?.

Not so fast, the markets are not that easy: the answer (I believe) lies in Sale's run in. They face the hardest fixture list  possible for them - lying 2nd their last six games are each of the teams in 1st-7th.  They Leeds, Glos and Wasps at home, and Leicester, Sarries and Northampton away. (You can understand, perhaps how important it was for them to beat us two weeks ago) Add to that their indifferent away form and you can see it's not going to be easy for them, and the 68-71 price actually starts to look a little dear. I'm not at all sure they'll finish second.

So, more interesting perhaps is the team below them: Leicester, who's run in is a lot easier, facing Sale, Leeds and Irish at home, and Newcastle, Quins and Gloucester away.  Glaws is clearly a hard ask, but who's to say they won't win all the other five?.  They are priced at 55-58 so if you buy at 58 you make a profit of 22 points if they manage 2nd, pocket two points for third and face a downside of just 8 points for fourth (surely they can't do worse than 4th).  An attractive bet.

Lastly, have a look at Wasps' price. Lying 5th, in fact they have the same number of points as Leicester in 3rd and are priced at 43-46 (ie profit for 3rd or better).  They have a very attractive run in indeed: playing no fewer than five of the bottom six clubs.  They face Newcastle, Bath and Quins at home (ca-ching, thank you ...15 points hardly unlikely) and Sarries, Bristol and Sale away (9 more points, perhaps).  Another very attractive looking buy, then with lots of upside for a finish of 2nd or 3rd, limited loss for fourth, and only a 13 point loss if they finish 5th.

So kwin's tips this time are Buy Leicester and Buy Wasps.  The only trouble is - it doesn't really make sense to buy both these:  You are needing them both to squeeze into the the top three to make a decent return.  So, if you are sensible, you should probably pick just one of those bets .... whichever seems most attractive to you.. 

Me? Oh, I'm going for both of them, of course.