Relegation Roadmap: Rounds 20 & 21


By Quaking Quin
April 20 2007

A mixed bag of results but in the end no more or no less than Deano expected at the start of the season. While Quins limp along aimlessly in GP no-man’s land all eyes will be firmly on Northampton and Worcester, who have managed to drag the last rights out to the final day of the season.


Predicted Total Points after Sarries: 47  (originally 40 to survive)
Predicted Finish Position after Sarries: 8th (originally 11th )

Nothing has changed in Quins’ prospects since Round 15 when they beat Saints and knew they were safe from relegation having condemned Northampton to a dog-fight with Wuzz.

After that game Deano was quoted by Simon Keogh in the Rugby Times as saying the DOR had ‘targeted’ the final six matches. For what is now not exactly certain but we do know that the only thing Deano has been been interested in is the ‘performance’ in each match. By my reckoning it‘s been:

  • Leicester (first 40 minutes)
  • Wasps (first 40 minutes)
  • Gloucester (second 40 minutes)
  • Irish (first 50 minutes) – described by Deano as the best ‘performance’ of the season (the extra 10 minutes effort obviously took it’s toll on minds and hearts)
  • Sarries (neither first nor last 40 minutes)

Last Sunday’s game was so easy for Sarries that they just might be lulled into a false sense of security for the away game to Worcester. It’s going to be a fantastic battle of the packs – and let’s be thankful that Quins’ frail front five do not have to meet either in Round 22 and have nothing riding on the last game other than pride. 

Just like 0405, it’s impossible to guess the outcome of the relegation games on the final day (lucky Sky). There will be lots of chewed fingers at Franklins Gardens (v. Irish) and Sixways (v. Sarries) but Wuzz, having let a golden opportunity slip against the Irish on Sunday, must have handed the initiative back to Saints. 

The comparison with the 2004-05 ZP table still makes an interesting read – you will all recall the Tuesday evening defeat at Headingly in Round 21 in 2005 when Leeds moved off the bottom and Quins took their place. The bottom five in the premiership then looked like this:

 

ZP Tuesday 20th April 2005:

(Figures in brackets give final league positions and points)

Position Team Played Won Points
8 (10) Irish 21 8  39 (40)
9 (8) Tykes 21 8 39 (43)
10 (11) Saints 21 8 39 (40)
11 (9) Wuzz 21 8 38 (42)
12 (12) Quins 21 6  37 (38)

 

So, which Quins team will turn up for the final game against Sale - the de-mob happy brigade (who have brought so much amusement to Wasps and Sarries fans this season) or the one that wants finally to remove the ghost of Jeremy Staunton from the North Stand. If we win, then it’s one against the odds for Deano and a 7th place finish, lose and it’s 8th slot as predicted way back at Round 15.

At least the third successive sell-out crowd can expect a ‘performance’ – then we can all look forward to the announcement of some very impressive signings before 1st June, so all you ST Early Birds can decide whether to commit yourselves to a second mortgage.

Just to remind everyone how close Deano’s original predictions were, the Roadmap for 06/07 started as:

 

  Game Date Venue Prediction Actual
Points
Gained
GP
Total
Predicted finishing place
(Target – 11th)
1 Irish 02/09/06 a Close defeat (1bp) 1 1 11th
2 Glaws 09/09/07 h Loss (0) 0 1 11th
3 Wasps 17/09/06 a Loss (0) 0 1 11th
4 Tigers 23/09/06 h Loss (0) 1 2 (1pt gain) 11th
5 Bristol 15/10/06 a Close defeat (1bp) 0 2 (1pt loss) 11th
6 Saints 04/11/06 h Win only (4pts) 5 7 (1pt gain) 11th
7 Falcons 10/11/06 a Close defeat (1bp) 4 11 (3pt gain) 9th
8 Wuzz 17/11/06 h Win + try bp (5) 4 15 (1pt loss) 10th
9 Sale 24/11/06 a Loss (0) 1 16 (1pt gain) 10th
10 Sarries 22/12/06 h Win only (4pts) 1 17 (3pt loss) 11th
11 Wuzz 27/12/06 a Win only (4pts) 4 21 11th
Halfway 20   21 One point extra not quite enough to move any higher in league
12 Falcons 01/01/07 h Win + try bp (5) 5 26 11th
13 Bath 06/01/07 h Win only (4pts) 4 30 11th
14 Bath 27/01/07 a Loss (0) 0 30 11th
15 Saints 17/02/07 a Loss (0) 4 34 8th (4pt gain and 5 up on original target)
16 Bristol 24/02/07 h Win only (4pts) 4 38 8th
17 Tigers 03/03/07 a Loss (0) 1 39 8th (1pt gain to consolidate 8th slot)
18 Wasps 10/03/07  h Close defeat (1bp)    1    40 8th
19 Glaws 17/03/07  a Loss (0)    1    41 8th (1pt gain but no progress up the table)
20 Irish 07/04/07  h Win only (4pts)    5    46 8th (1pt gain but no progress up the table)
21 Sarries 15/04/07  a Close defeat (1bp)    0    46 8th (1pt lost but no effect on final position)
22 Sale 28/04/07 h Close defeat (1bp)      
  40 points Total    

 

 

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