By BrianC
July 10 2006

When I first saw the London Irish fixture list for the 05/06 season my immediate feeling was that we would see a drop in gates over 04/05. It turns out I was wrong, if only just.

The average gate showed a slight increase to 10772. Brian Smith's brand of attractive rugby coupled with success on field has just mitigated the negative aspects both of our hostile fixture list last season and of three previous seasons of generally pretty dull performances on field. At the start of the season the then fairly new London Irish Chief Executive, Ian Taylor, went on record as saying that we needed average gates of thirteen thousand to break even. That was always going to be a tall order, so it has proved.

This season, for the first time ever, the club issued an interim financial statement. Whilst I do not know for sure it looks like this was a condition of the decision to register on Sharemark. An unofficial, pre-AIM, kind of share market. The published figures showed a loss of half a million pounds in the first half of the year. Prior to the interim report some shares were traded at 15p. Since then none have passed hands despite being offered as low as 10p. At the time of writing this article (late May) we do not yet know the full year figures but it is a fair bet they won't look pretty.

It is not hard to see where the money has gone. The London Irish squad of 05/06 is a much stronger one than has been the case for many years before. I claim no knowledge of the actual negotiations that took place as Brian Smith was being lured into the Director of Rugby position but it is a reasonable assumption that he was promised the funds before he accepted the job. Full credit where it is due. He has recruited wisely and the results have been there on field for all to see. Other clubs, most notably Saracens in years past, can testify that expenditure on players does not necessarily feed through to success on field.

Next season London Irish supporters will witness many changes off field. Controversially the East Stand is, for the first time, to be made reserved seating. There is also a measure of zoning in Lower West and the South Stand will be opened with unreserved seating for all games. The question at this stage is will these changes accompanied as they are by substantial ticket price increases adversely hit crowd numbers? Or will the improved brand of rugby, coupled with success on field and Heineken Cup games more than make up for any downfall?

Truth is that nobody really knows. I can look at examples of other clubs, such as Wasps, and point to the fact that success on field tends to take two or three years to work through to crowd numbers. Even then it is tenuous as this season's numbers can testify. That may however be different with London Irish. A few years ago they had fast growing crowd numbers. This growth was largely stymied by poor, boring play on field and results to match. As word spreads again that London Irish are not only winning but playing attractive rugby in the process there is a chance that double digit crowd growth figures will return sooner rather than later.

The strategy embarked on by London Irish is a risky one. Unlike some other clubs there is no single very wealthy benefactor. Many, particularly those who witnessed the demise of Richmond and the near death of Bristol, would say that is a good thing. Whilst the blurb talks about hundreds of supporter-shareholders the truth is that there are a small number of large shareholders who effectively run the club. They are sometimes referred to as "the consortium".

In the latter part of last season an Evening Standard interview with new chairman, John Conlan, mooted the idea of London Irish being part of a consortium which would build a 20k seat stadium 'closer to London'. Whilst this would indeed be wonderful this author, having heard such tales for most of the last decade, remains very skeptical. The current contract with the Madejski stadium lasts until 2010. No doubt contract negotiations are currently underway. The clue to such public statements may be there.

The board have in the recent past insisted that the club break even. Gary Gold and Connor O'Shea were recently under a much tighter reign than the current incumbents. Whatever the failings on field the books did balance. At present it appears they don't. As a non-shareholder but interested observer I must be frank and say that this worries me somewhat. To me, it begs a number of questions......

- Can the losses we are currently seeing be sustained for long?
- Are the consortium prepared to risk more of their own money now in the hope of a return on investment further down the line?
- If so, can they persuade the existing smaller shareholders or enough new ones to do likewise?
- Will we face another financial crisis similar to the ones seen in 2002....1996...etc....etc?

As the title of this article states: The Jury is Out. All being well it will deliver a positive verdict next season by way of many more clicks than at present through the turnstiles at the Madejski.