By BrianC
November 17 2006

The Figures Explained

The figures are taken from the Guinness Premiership (GP) site and can be verified against those published there. Every effort has been made to verify their accuracy but they are subject to error, either my own, or by the administrators of the GP site.

These figures are based on all home Zurich/Guinness games, Premiership, Play-offs, Wild Card and Championship matches. They do not include any Powergen Cup or European competition figures, as there are no reliable historic sources for these in the period covered.

My study starts with the 97/98 season, as that is the first for which figures are on record although openly professional rugby began in England the season before this.

Different ways of counting a crowd

It is apparent that different clubs have different methods of counting crowd numbers.

Some clubs only count numbers through the turnstiles, so they always report a below capacity ground even if it has sold out. Others openly admit to counting tickets sold rather than heads attending – and this means that they count 100% of their season ticket holders for every match, whether or not they attend.

Two seasons ago in an attempt to address this, and to assist comparison, I produced some weighted results in addition to the exact published figures. In these weighted results I add an extra 15% to the numbers for those clubs who only count bodies through the turnstiles. Whilst I am keeping watch on this I have decided against repeating the exercise. The difference was marginal both last season and the one prior so made little or no difference to the overall picture.

Which is correct?

For each club surveyed, as well as the raw numbers, I’ve attempted to give a number of figures to assist with comparison. As well as comparative percentage growth there is comparative absolute growth. Thus Leicester, who come only 11th in terms of percentage growth in the period covered, with a 29% crowd increase (Graph above), come a more respectable 6th in absolute growth, having grown their average crowd by 3,727 in this period. (Graph below)

Neither graph can be said to be more accurate than the other. They are merely different ways of viewing the same figures. Please note that both graphs, and some of the figures given in the individual articles, list thirteen teams. These are the twelve that were in the Premiership last season plus Harlequins.

The London Double Header

In terms of compiling the statistics the introduction of the London Double Header in 04/05 presented a challenge. The simple fact is that on the first day of the last two seasons a substantial number of people turned up at Twickenham to watch two games. I decided from the outset that the fairest thing to do was to divide the crowd in four and allocate equally to each club. As the games were technically 'away' games for two of the clubs, this season London Irish and Saracens, they are shown this season as having twelve home GP games whereas the rest of the teams had eleven. As I have said not perfect but, to my mind, the least of all evils.

Within my own London Irish community I have had people suggesting that I should concentrate on games played at the Madejski stadium only. Somewhat ironically those suggestions have only been made last season when such a calculation would have shown a better growth figure. Had the same logic been applied to the 04/05 season the figures would have seemed even worse than they actually were. I have resisted such calls and will continue to do so as my principle aim is to provide a consistent and honest picture. For LI, Saracens and Wasps the 05/06 figure is thus a direct like for like comparison with 04/05.

Rearranged Fixtures

Last season the fixture between Leicester and Wasps, originally scheduled for Saturday 8th April (Round 19) was rearranged to be played on 22nd April as Wasps reached the final of the Powergen Cup. For whatever reason the GP site showed this as a round 20 game hence that round having seven fixtures and round 19 only five. I have decided against following this lead as it distorts the round by round figures and have left this fixture allocated to round 19.

Club by Club – My Spin on the Figures

The author is a London Irish supporter whose interest was sparked by the growth he had witnessed at his own club. I have attempted for the purposes of these articles to remain dispassionate and objective. In previous years my attempts at objectivity have been to the chagrin of some of my, blindly loyal, fellow supporters. Even given that I do accept fully that there may be times when some bias comes through.

For each club I present the published figures, together with their relative positions. As a London Irish supporter my knowledge of actions taken by that club with regards to promotions, price increases, etc. will enable my interpretation of the figures to be more detailed than that for others. In preparation for these articles I have consulted many other clubs’ supporters. Their assistance and insights have proved invaluable.

There is an old saying about lies, dammed lies and statistics. No doubt some of my reading of these figures will be called into question. That I welcome unreservedly. Other than being an active rugby supporter, an amateur statistician and having had the time and inclination to first gather and then try to make some sense of these figures I claim no specialist knowledge.