The first published fixture list, through a combination and world cup confusion, had no game scheduled this season. This caused no little consternation amongst the LI family. The RFU subsequently decided not to run the ‘A’ Internationals alongside the six nations so a window of opportunity opened. Our guests on Sunday 21st March, Bath, agreed to a fixture change. That day will see the biggest St Patrick’s party in the Thames Valley, arguably the biggest in the country. The question is, How many will be up for this treat? Will we break the all time Zurich Premiership crowd record?

When, last season, I wrote ‘A record crowd?’ the record stood at 19,764 who had watched Saracens vs. Newcastle five years previously. That figure has been overtaken twice since then. A new record was set at Ashton Gate on 4th May 2003 when 20,793 watched Bristol play Bath in a ‘relegation’ battle. On 27^th December last we came very close to this figure at the Madejski when 20,318 watched our game against Wasps.

Yet again The Craic is running a ‘Guess the St. Patrick’s game crowd’ competition. The prize being a bottle of champagne to the person who guesses closest to the actual figure recorded on the day. This is a free to enter competition. It is open to all supporters, home, away or neutral. The only condition is that you must be at the game to collect your prize on the day. Last season Mrs. H. won this competition. Her guess was only three away from the actual figure. 

To get some impression of what the crowd will be it is worth looking at some stats. First of all the last three St. Patrick’ game crowds, since we moved to the Madstad.

17/3/2001 - London Irish vs Northampton – 12,037

16/3/2002 - London Irish vs Bristol – 12,873

16/3/2003 - London Irish vs Harlequins – 18,585

The large jump between 2001/2 figures and that of 2003 can be largely explained by Bristol’s relatively low travelling support when compared to that of the Saints and Quins.

To simplify things I will round the following figures to the nearest hundred. Our average home crowd for the last three seasons has been.

2003/4 (thus far) - 8400

2002/3 – 9000

2001/2 – 7200

On the surface, this shows that our attendance figures are seven per cent down on last season but that does not tell the whole story. At the equivalent stage last season, before the St. Patrick’s game our average gate was 8500. What this tells us is that despite our substantial hike in ticket prices this season (33%-50%) we have maintained crowd numbers, the drop being one per cent. As an aside, you can take from this what you wish either good news, increased revenue from the same crowd numbers or bad news, no growth in crowds in line with the rest of the ZP.

Bath tend to travel well. Assuming their travelling support is similar to that of Quins we could imply that this year’s crowd will be similar to that of last. There are however some other factors that come into play.

-          Post RWC, crowds appear to be healthier than earlier in the season.

-          If we do well in our February games, we will be in contention for a HC and play off place.

-          Bath are doing so well this year their travelling support may have increased.

-          Our club are (foolishly to this authors mind) running a ‘kids go free’ promotion.

Officially, the capacity of the Madejski is 24,200. Both the East and South stands will be unreserved seating, safety regulations dictate that ten percent of those seats remain unsold. One further limitation is the banner advertisements that normally sit over the North stand. If last year is anything to go by, these will be moved to the edge of that stand. They will still, however, be taking up seating capacity. I estimate that in total we will have something close to twenty two thousand seats to sell or give away.

So, will we set a new ZP record? My guess is yes. Whatever, yet again we have another fantastic Madejski day lined up. From an old hand, the best advice I can give to anyone experiencing their first LI St. Patrick’s weekend. Book the day of Monday 22^nd off work.