By BrianC
August 14 2006

As with last season I am going to attempt to predict next seasons gates and I will put those alongside the mathematical projections. Some or all of my predictions will of course be wrong. What happens during the season both on and off field can have a significant effect on crowd numbers.

There have been a number of key considerations whilst putting the numbers together. These are:

05/06 season crowd numbers - The baseline from which to work
06/07 projection - Past average growth projected forward one year
Momentum - There is a general pattern whereby crowds that are growing continue to do so, likewise crowds that are falling.
Ground capacity - Whatever the projections or the potential, if a ground is already at capacity there is no room to grow.
Special circumstances - Things such as big showcase games, relegation battles and championship deciders. These can have effected the baseline figure. We know what the key factors were in 05/06, next season is anyone's guess.

Bath

04/05 gate - 10,442
05/06 projection - 10,951
Momentum - Strongly up
Ground capacity - 10,500
Special circumstances - Uncertainty over the Rec.

Things seem to be coming to a head with Bath and their tenancy at the Rec. If they do stay there the gate for next season is relatively easy to predict. They will have capacity crowds at all eleven of their home GP games. The only variable factor, as with 05/06 will be the number of usable temporary seats at the Rec.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 10,450

Bristol

05/06 gate - 9,265
06/07 projection - 10,532
Momentum - Up
Ground capacity - 12,000
Special circumstances - None.

Bristol surprised many, not least this author, with their strong showing last season. Assuming they can remain competitive next season should see them consolidate the gains they made last.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 9,500

Gloucester

05/06 gate - 11,573
06/07 projection - 12,312
Momentum - Static
Ground capacity - 12,500
Special circumstances - Ground redevelopment

Last season Gloucester recorded a slight drop in numbers. Proposed redevelopment at Kingsholm could also restrict numbers for part of next season. We may well see another drop in numbers.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 11,250

Harlequins

05/06 gate - 8,975
06/07 projection - 9,528
Momentum - Strongly up
Ground capacity - 12,500
Special circumstances - Promotion, ground redevelopment.

Despite relegation Quins crowd numbers held up very well last season. With the new West Stand now open, their gates next season look set to be more than respectable. Redevelopment of the South Stand could hit numbers somewhat if it goes ahead next season

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 12,000

Leicester

05/06 gate - 16,586
06/07 projection - 17,167
Momentum - Up
Ground capacity - 16,815
Special circumstances - None

Redevelopment at Welford Road will not start for another year. Expansion cannot come soon enough. Leicester will play eleven home games and have eleven capacity crowds.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 16,815

London Irish

05/06 gate - 10,772
06/07 projection - 12,386
Momentum - Up
Ground capacity - 24,000
Special circumstances - London Double Header. Saint Patrick's fixture. Ticket price increases.

After a couple of seasons of little growth I am now quite optimistic about LI's prospects for next season. The fixture list for next season is good with a Boxing Day game and at St. Patrick's game actually on St Patrick's weekend. These could see our first capacity crowds at the Madejski. Quins return to the fold will also help boost the LDH numbers. If things stay bright on field these should more than offset the negative impact of this seasons ticket price increases.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 11,750

Newcastle

05/06 gate - 8,030
06/07 projection - 8,663
Momentum - Static
Ground capacity - 10,200
Special circumstances - Jonny Wilkinson

Newcastle's numbers, more than any other club, have been swayed by one star player in recent years. If injury continues to keep JW off the field of play I can't see them growing much.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 8,100

Northampton

05/06 gate - 13,252
06/07 projection - 14,495
Momentum - Up
Ground capacity - 13,500
Special circumstances - None

Saints managed to pretty well fill their newly expanded Franklins Gardens in 05/06. This despite the fact that they had a largely indifferent season on field. Growth next season will be limited by ground capacity.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 13,300

Sale

05/06 gate - 9,724
06/07 projection - 11,204
Momentum - Strongly Up
Ground capacity - 11,000
Special circumstances - None

Sale are the fastest growing team of this decade. Every season since 00/01 they have recorded crowd growth well into double figures. Their difficulty now is they are about to hit capacity problems at Edgley Park. In the short term at least this could stunt their spectacular growth.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 10,500

Saracens

05/06 gate - 8,134
06/07 projection - 8,076
Momentum - Slightly up
Ground capacity - 22,100
Special circumstances - London Double Header.

Saracens at last seem to have arrested their slump in crowds, growth however appears patchy. As with the other London clubs a bigger gate at the London Double Header should help numbers up.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 8,500

Wasps

05/06 gate - 8,983
06/07 projection - 9,548
Momentum - Static
Ground capacity - 10,000
Special circumstances - London Double Header

Wasps gates dipped slightly last season. The LDH will boost numbers slightly but they are suffering due to lack of capacity in High Wycombe.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 9,500

Worcester

05/06 gate - 9,668
06/07 projection - 11,466
Momentum - Strongly Up
Ground capacity - 10,400
Special circumstances - None

Worcester have taken to life in the premiership like the proverbial duck to water. As with many other clubs their biggest constraint at present is ground size. There will be a small increase in stadium size next season which I expect to see fully taken up.

BrianC's prediction for 06/07 - 10,400

The Guinness Premiership

I expect gates next season to be up around 7.5% on 2005/6 with an average in the region of 11k. The main driver behind this growth will be the return of Harlequins to the premiership. Their average gate should be in the region of 12k whereas the club they have replaced, Leeds, managed just under 6k last season.

Whilst there are major ground expansions in the pipeline at a number of clubs none of these, aside from the small increase at Worcester, will kick in next season. In fact the effect, if anything, could be negative as ground capacities are reduced whilst development work gets underway.

There is overall a pattern of healthy growth. With the amount of latent demand there appears to be, as ground expansion allows, we can expect this upward pattern to continue for some years yet.