By Dobbin
August 31 2011

 The first weekend of the new season is upon us, and Wasps couldn't have a tougher start to the new campaign: a match against the defending champions, Saracens. And the second instalment of the now traditional London double-header will see the six-time title winners go in as firm underdogs against the Watford outfit. 

The last five minutes of last season's final game seemed to exemplify everything that made Sarries the champions. A last-ditch rearguard defensive effort against a series of muscular forward drives from Leicester, it was a dogged, bloody-minded and possibly almost cathartic response to the events of the year before, when Dan Hipkiss had skipped through a passive cluster of defenders to score for Leicester in the dying moments and break Saracen hearts. This time round there was no breach in the line. Wasps used to go into campaigns with the mantra “Defence Wins Championships” ringing in their ears, but the saying was never more fitting than it was of Saracens last term. And a quick look at the statistics shows this to be as true about the season itself as of those tense final minutes against Leicester.

First let's look at the list of Premiership winners and their respective Tries For/Against statistics:

The most obvious point to make about these numbers is that in the past two years the numbers of tries both scored and conceded by the eventual champions has dropped appreciably. 2009/10, of course, was marred by the introduction of the Experimental Law Variations (ELVs) and the accompanying, invidious breakdown directives which seemed at the time to mean every ruck resulted in a penalty to the defending team. The aerial ping-pong that ensued was not exactly conducive to the scoring of tries. In fact only Bath scored more tries than Leicester in 2009/10, and only three more at that. In contrast, last season really broke the mould in terms of the way the eventual champions went about their business. Sarries were outscored on the tries front by no fewer than seven teams, and four sides scored more points as a whole. On the other hand, no side conceded fewer tries or points than the trophy winners. Last season really was the one in which defence won the championship.

So what of Wasps' performance over the same period? If defence won the championships in the early 2000s, is it the case, as seems to be the perception, that our defence has deteriorated over the last few seasons? The stats here are revealing.

The most telling column in this table is the “Tries For” one: in the last three seasons the number of tries scored by Wasps in the Premiership has reduced dramatically. By contrast, the number of tries conceded hasn't changed all that much. Last year was certainly our worst in terms of points conceded, but the stats seem to indicate an increased susceptibility to give away three-pointers rather than tries. The point is academic, perhaps: however you gift-wrap them, points conceded are points conceded. Giving penalties away could be just as much a sign of a struggling defence as letting in five-pointers. 2008/9, however, tells a different story. It was Wasps' best defensive season, in terms of points, since the Heineken Cup and Premiership double season of 2003/4. And where did we finish in the final table? Seventh.

Is it, as the saying goes, defence that wins a championsip? For Sarries last season, the answer seems to be an emphatic yes. For Wasps, however, the evidence is that in the years of success, our fate was shaped much more by the scores we made (albeit that many of them were made by the aggressiveness of the blitz defence). It is in converting opportunities into points that we have fallen furthest in recent seasons, and is the part of our game that needs the most work.

Are there any lessons for the coming season in this brief skim of statistics? For Saracens, perhaps, the season is about developing their game. Maintain the defensive stranglehold that was so in evidence against Leicester in the Premiership Final, but develop a more adventurous attacking game to go with it, one that uses the errors forced on the opposition to achieve more than simply slotting another three points. The signing of long-time Sale fly-half Charlie Hodgson could be central to any such approach. Always one of the more creative pivots in the domestic game (and too often a one-man wrecker of Wasps, in this spectator's eyes), his move down south could be just what is required to take Sarries on to the next level. Triumphant as their Premiership victory might have been, Sarries disappointed in Europe last season. One win out of six in the pool stages, albeit the pool was probably the hardest in the competition, was a poor return for a side brimming with the talent that Saracens have at their disposal. Here again, a more rounded game can't but help. Hodgson might well be the man to harness the attacking talents of men like Schalk Brits, Alex Goode, David Strettle and, most excitingly perhaps, the fleet-footed brick outhouse that is James Short. An off-season than has seen unaccustomed continuity, resulting in the recent contract renewals of the entire coaching staff, can only aid Saracens' aim to become one of the top sides in the country for years to come.

In contrast to their near neighbours, Wasps have had the sort of summer upheaval that used to be synonymous with Saracens. A new Director of Rugby, a new attack coach, a new captain and about half a new squad make this an impossible season to predict. But it is the second of these new arrivals that could prove to be the most important. Paul Turner, former head coach at the Newport Gwent Dragons, has been brought in by Dai Young to revitalise an attack that, last season most noticeably, had become stodgy and predictable. With new fly-halves Nick Robinson and Ryan Davis in harness, the challenge for Turner is to use the talents of these men, as well as centres Flutey, Bell, Mayor and Waldouck, to release the pace on the wings that was too often wasted, too often forced into dead ends, last term. This is also a season that will require huge input from the young guns, of whom there seem to be loads all of a sudden. In the wake of their contributions to England's near miss in the Under 20 World Cup this summer, the likes of Christian Wade, Sam Jones, Elliot Daly and Joe Launchbury should be aiming to make themselves regular fixtures in the matchday squad. At full-back, Jack Wallace needs to pressure another new arrival in Hugo Southwell. Bob Baker, Joe Burton, Billy Vunipola and others might have crucial roles to play at times during the season, complementing the experienced campaigners that have been brought in such as Marco Wentzel, Ross Filipo, Steve Thompson, and Jonathan Poff.

Reading back, it seems likely that the first few weeks of the season are going to be an exercise in putting faces to names. Rarely will a Wasps squad be as unfamiliar as the one we're going to be faced with this time around. The huge challenge facing Dai Young and his staff is to meld these players into a team capable of competing with the likes of Saracens, Leicester and the rest as quickly as possible, to hit the ground running. A victory against the reigning champions on Saturday might be a little too much too soon, but the road that begins at Twickenham this weekend will be, let's hope, one that leads out of the doldrums that have enveloped the club in the last few years.

Allez Wasps!

PRE-SEASON RESULTS

Saracens:

Toulon 26-17 Sarries

Bedford 20-45 Sarries

Sarries 35-10 Esher

Connecht 8-26 Sarries

Wasps:

Agen 14-7 Wasps

Munster 0-15 Wasps

Wasps 54-11 Benetton Treviso

DEFENCE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS: SARACENS v WASPS

Discussion started by DrunkenWasps.com , 31/08/2011 12:20

DrunkenWasps.com
31/08/2011 12:20

What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.

Reply Quote Report

bald.paul.101
31/08/2011 13:33

Interesting. wasps scored most tries with a mid field of Cips (in his prime), Flutey, (when he last showed some form), and Fraser. With Dom & DW as reserves

whatever people may think about some of those individuals, theres no question they were the most creative midfield we've had for a long time.



And yes before anyone points out that that year had the highest tries against, it just goes to show you cant have everything

Reply Quote Report

beshocked
31/08/2011 16:58

Nice analysis Dobbin but obviously to win you need to outscore the opposition.

It shows the Wasps way is to score tries.

The only way I can see Wasps beating Saracens is outscoring them in the try count and even that might not be enough.

Saracens excel at exerting and withstanding pressure.

It is Saracens measly points against total which is the biggest danger for opposition.Taking any points off Saracens is difficult enough.

The champion teams in my opinion are arrogant,fearless and build up momentum.

Wasps used to build up a lot of momentum for the playoffs when they won most of their championships.

Some teams like Gloucester and Quins have the players to do well but not that extra mental grit/mental strength.

Wasps are going to have a bumpy season in my opinion but HC qualification should be a realistic goal for progression.

Reply Quote Report

wasps_4_life
31/08/2011 18:03

The first stat show how much the game has changed over the last two year. Trys are not as often and overall the game has become less interesting. People will disagree, but overall i feel the newish rules have damaged are game .

Reply Quote Report

Goto: Forum List•Message List•Search• Log In

Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.

We record all IP addresses on the Sportnetwork message boards which may be required by the authorities in case of defamatory or abusive comment. We seek to monitor the Message Boards at regular intervals. We do not associate Sportnetwork with any of the comments and do not take responsibility for any statements or opinions expressed on the Message Boards. If you have any cause for concern over any material posted here please let us know as soon as possible by e-mailing abuse@sportnetwork.net