By Leipziger
February 17 2011

The Falcons face an absolute must-win match at KP tomorrow night.  Repeating our two previous home wins over Exeter this season will ensure we are above Leeds going into next week’s match at Headingley.

The Falcons face an absolute must-win match at KP tomorrow night.  Repeating our two previous home wins over Exeter this season will ensure we are above Leeds going into next week’s match at Headingley.

As with last weekend we have a theoretical advantage in playing first as Leeds don’t visit Saracens until Sunday afternoon. Being seven or even eight points ahead of the Cardigans ramps up the pressure on them, although they will take heart from Sunday’s bonus point gained at home to Leicester.

Exeter have dropped down the Premiership table in recent weeks and now sit in ninth place, on 27 points following last week’s 20-6 home win over Harlequins.  18 points above Leeds, they have realistically secured a second crack at the top division next season and Rob Baxter and his team must be applauded for that.

However, they are without an away win in any competition since beating Saracens 9-23 at Vicarage Road in October, a particularly annoying result since at the same time our pack were being taken apart in Northampton.

Two weeks ago we beat the Chiefs 17-3 in the LV= Cup to level our own mini-series of games this season at 2-2, this being the decider.  The return match in the league came in September and despite a good start and outscoring the hosts by two tries to one the Falcons went down 22-17.

Both of our wins over Exeter in 2010/11, the one a fortnight ago and at Netherdale in Europe before Christmas, were tough games that could have gone either way until the end.

Tomorrow could well go the same way, and though Exeter will not be easy to beat, we don’t have any other choice now.  If we lose, we go to Leeds either bottom or with them knowing that they can climb above us with a win.

It is now or maybe never, but in previous seasons when the pressure has really been on, the Falcons have tended to deliver.  Think Harlequins and Saracens in 2002/03, Gloucester and Bristol in 2008/09, and Gloucester and Sale last season.  I predict we will be thoroughly on-edge but extremely happy come 10pm on Friday, and even more so by 8pm next Sunday.

The cause is boosted by Jeremy Manning apparently not breaking his arm at the Madejski last weekend, but he drops to the bench with Alex Tait moving to full-back and Gcobani Bobo in on the wing.  Euan Murray’s return from international duty is the only other change to our starting XV.

15  Alex Tait

14  Luke Fielden

13  Luke Eves

12  Tane Tu’ipulotu

11  Gcobani Bobo

10  Jimmy Gopperth

9  Micky Young

1  Jon Golding

2  Matt Thompson

3  Euan Murray

4c  James Hudson

5  Andrew van der Heijden

6  Tim Swinson

7  Will Welch

8  Ally Hogg

16  Rob Vickers

17  Kieran Brookes

18  Grant Shiells

19  Glen Townson

20  Mark Wilson

21  Hall Charlton

22  James Fitzpatrick

23  Jeremy Manning

Not many of Exeter’s starting side were seen at KP a week past Sunday, and they have a couple of good kickers so discipline will be important.  This is the same team that defeated Quins last weekend, apart from one change on the bench, so any thoughts of complacency can be gotten rid of right now.  We are certainly capable of beating it though.

15  Luke Arscott

14  Matt Jess

13  Jason Shoemark

12  Sireli Naqelevuki

11  Nic Sestaret

10  Gareth Steenson

9  Haydn Thomas

1  Brett Sturgess

2 Neil Clark

3 Chris Budgen

4 Tom Hayes (capt)

5 James Hanks

6 Tom Johnson

7 James Scaysbrook

8 Richard Baxter

16 Chris Whitehead

17 Ben Moon

18 Ignacio Elosu

19 Chad Slade

20 James Phillips

21 Junior Poluleuligaga

22 Ryan Davis

23 Phil Dollman

Bring it on!!