Tranmere Rovers
What gets you promoted, goals or defence
By Brian Braine
July 2 2022
For most of last season Rovers had one of the strongest defences in the League. We conceded very few goals but didn't score as many either. Team play was often characterised by more sideways passes than shots on goal. Supporters were often very frustrated, wanting a more attacking approach. Lots of possession was all well and good, but putting goals into the onion bag was more important. it's got me wondering. Can promotion be won on the basis of a tight defence and scoring relatively few goals?
The approach seems anathema. In 2012/13 Gillingham got promoted from League Two by scoring 66 goals and conceeding 39. In 2009/10 Bournemouth were promoted scoring 61 goals and conceeding 44. Our own last promotion from League Two, via the play offs, was achieved when we only managed to score 60 goals and conceded 50. You might argue that's indicative of a leaky defence and low scoring. It's possible therefore to build promotion on teams that don't score that many goals and have a tight defence. However, generally speaking, teams that get promotion score upwards of 70 goals a season.
This matters because at the moment our attacking options look a little limited. However, we have recruited more defenders than attackers (at the time of writing), so it's possible that Mr Mellon is taking the same approach as last season with the emphasis on defence rather than attack. However, if Kane Hemmings maintains his goal scoring average from last season, he should be able to bag 20 plus in the coming term. Arguably players like Eliot Nevitt will only get better, given that last season was his first experience playing at this level.
At the back the concern is that replacing Peter Clarke will be a big ask. We have added Neil Byrne and Jon Nolan, players who seem to have experience and strong defensive capabilities . At the same time younger players like Hockenhall and Hayde have been brought in. It's possible that the club are trying to address a bigger problem, the number of times we failed to hold on to a lead in matches. We often seemed unable to keep hold of any advantage or come back from going behind. It could be that younger legs at the back addresses this problem? Doubtless we will also resolve the goal keeping issue too. We can't rely on Joe Murphy to stay fit and need someone else to pull on the keeper's jersey.
It could be said that it doesn't matter where your emphasis comes, in the end you have to pick up points on your travels. We were lacking in this department last season, arguably it was our away form that let us down, and our inability to see out games. Losses to clubs such as Scunthorpe, now relegated, suggested to me that we failed to grab the low hanging fruit, and made our task all the more difficult at the business end of the season.
In a few weeks we will see how the summer shopping expedition has paid off. Most of us are hoping for a more expansive and attacking style of football. In the end we all want our club to do well. Winning games matters. It would just be nice to win in a style that sets the heart racing, rather than leaves you biting your nails to the bone in the last 10 minutes.
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02/07/2022 12:33
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2022:07:02:12:40:49 by Bored rover.
Looking at the tables over the last few years teams who score around 65 and concede less the 45 tend to be in the top 3.
There are exceptions such as Bolton last year who scored 59 and conceded 50 and teams who conceded more than 45 tended to score more than 65, such as BR, Cambridge scoring over 70 and Bury in our promotion year conceded
56 but scored 82.
So as a rule of thumb, score at least 65, concede less than 45 and this should put you in the top 3 mix.
Quote:Bored rover
Scoring more than you concede in most games
True. 46 0-0 games won’t gain promotion !
