By Webmaster/Rheolwr y Wefan
April 13 2003

Who will win the league? Barry fan and Webmaster of 'My Yellow Little Dragon' (www.barrytown.cjb.net) explains everything that could happen between now and the end of the month. IF... If Total Network Solutions win all four remaining Welsh Premier matches then they will win the league. (15/4 Aberystwyth a, 19/4 Cwmbran a, 21/4 Welshpool a, 26/4 Bangor h)

If TNS lose or draw one of those matches and Barry win their four remaining Welsh Premier matches then Barry win the league. (15/4 Carmarthen h, 19/4 Oswestry a, 21/4 Cwmbran h, 26/4 Aberystwyth h)

If TNS and Barry both lose one match and draw a game and Bangor win their four remaining Welsh Premier matches and overhaul TNS on goal difference then Bangor will win the league. (15/4 Connah's Quay a, 19/4 Port Talbot h, 21/4 Caernarfon a, 26/4 TNS a)

On the other hand, if TNS lose twice and Barry lose one and draw one and Bangor win their remaining matches then they will win the league.

The above scenario assumes that one or more of the top three will win their remaining games.

However, if TNS take more points from the last four matches than Barry and no more than four less than Bangor, the Saints win the league.

If Barry take one point more than TNS (and maintain the goal difference advantage) and no more than three less than Bangor, then the Dragons win the league.

If Bangor take six points more than TNS and five more than Barry (or five and four if they close the goal difference gap) then the Citizens win the league.

Two additional sides will have a great effect upon the title race outcome.

Aberystwyth and Cwmbran must both play Total Network Solutions at home and Barry Town away.

ecause of European qualification, both clubs have a vested interest in the outcomes of these games.

If either TNS or Bangor win the league, then the fourth placed club will get an Intertoto Cup place providing Barry win the Welsh Cup.

Aber are currently in fourth with four remaining matches with Rhyl, a point behind but a game more played, the side most likely to catch them.

Aber still have to face 15/4 TNS h, 18/4 Haverfordwest a, 21/4 Llanelli h, 26/4 Barry Town a.

Meanwhile, Rhyl play against 18/4 Flexsys Cefn Druids h, 21/4 Connah's Quay h, 26/4 Port Talbot a.

Aberystwyth need three wins from their four games to ensure fourth place, so while a TNS or Bangor championship win would give fourth an Intertoto Cup spot (providing Barry win the Welsh Cup), a defeat against TNS on Tuesday or against Barry on the final day may mean that they miss out on fourth in the final reckoning.

Eighth placed Cwmbran have five games to go, and should pick up enough points to remain in that position, confirming a Premier Cup place either as Welsh Cup winners if they beat Barry in the final, or as eighth placed club if they lose at Stebonheath on May 11th.

However, if Barry win the league then Cwmbran are assured a UEFA Cup qualification whatever the result in Llanelli. If either TNS or Bangor win the league then the Crows will have to win the final to be in Europe.

On top of all that, Carmarthen, Welshpool, Oswestry, Haverfordwest and Caernarfon are all scrapping for points to avoid the second relegation spot and could yet put a spanner in the works of the best laid plans of the top clubs.

'If...' suddenly seems a very big word.

www.barrytown.cjb.net - My Yellow Little Dragon

Taken From Barry Town v Carmarthen Town matchday magazine, 15/4/3