Last Friday night was fantastic. Outplaying the champions under the floodlights, scoring five tries to one, collecting five points to none. We will take that, thank you very much. Bank it and move on. Week Two and it’s another considerable challenge: one of our oldest rivals on their home patch.With a new coach and a sense that last season was one where they underachieved significantly, Leicester will be up for the fight. Nothing would please the Welford Road faithful more than puncturing Bath’s early season optimism.
We should not forget that last season belonged to Tigers in this fixture. In monsoon conditions at The Rec, Jaco Coetzee let a late restart slip through his fingers, a scrum penalty ensued, and Jamie Shillcock kicked Leicester to victory. Then on New Year’s Eve, JVG sent a much-changed side away from home and it was all done and dusted by half-time. 35-22 the final score to Tigers.
Sunday’s Bath team is likely to be considerably different from last December’s. Of the XV that kicked off on NYE, only de Glanville, Wills Butt and Stuart, and Quinn Roux are probable starters this weekend. Instead, we may even see an unchanged starting line-up – something I heard this week (on the Bath Rugby Plug podcast) that JVG did not field once last season. Rotation will be key this term, especially with the new 30 game regulations for players, but surely not this early in the calendar.
Bath have every justification for that aforementioned optimism. They have seen fewer significant departures than any other club, have more continuity and are developing a power game up front to tally with a fine blend of pragmatism and artistic endeavour in the backs. JVG’s favoured 6-2 split is now the norm and bringing the likes of du Plessis, Pepper and Coetzee off the bench is a weapon other DOR’s must covet.
If last week’s match up was easy to preview as Bath’s pack versus Saints’ backline, this week may be a more forward focused affair. Leicester as a club prides itself on its pack, building much of its identity around the hard men of yesteryear. The idea of getting pushed around by Bath in front of their own fans is not one that will have been entertained for long this week.
Welsh international Nicky Smith looks a particularly astute signing in the front row and was dominant in the scrum against Exeter on Saturday. He may well fancy a crack at Archie Griffin should the chance arise. Add in the likes of George Martin, Ollie Chessum, Hanro Liebenberg and Joe Heyes and you have the backbone of an excellent pack. They might not miss Jasper Weise as much as some feared.
At half-back, Jack van Portvliet will be keen to get one over England rival Ben Spence and Jamie Shillcock is likely continue at 10 with Handre Pollard on Springbok duty. Izaia Perese is a new name to the three-quarters, a hard running 13 signed from the Waratahs. He will link up with the more familiar Freddie Steward, Ollie Hassell-Collins and Josh Bassett – but not Solomone Kata who saw red for a dangerous tackle last weekend.
The big question for Leicester is how Michael Cheika - their seventh head coach in as many years - will get them playing. Cheika has had a short pre-season. He only signed in late June and much of Leicester’s recruitment was done by Dan McKellar. An ugly win in Devon was a great start but it might be a while before we see Cheika’s influence really show through.
In the short-term we can expect an uncompromising attitude and intense physicality. The slicker stuff will wait. Whether that is enough to beat a Bath team that is high on confidence and 24 months’ further along in its development under a new coach we will see on Sunday.
Predictions? An unchanged Bath starting XV supported by a superior bench will ultimately have just enough quality and cohesion to see off Tigers and make it two from two.
Bath to pull away in the last quarter and win by ten.
If that comes true, I’ll be smiling like Josh Matavesi at Welford Road back in 2020…
With Australia Cheika played a daring, backs oriented game. Last week it looked very much as if he had taken Tigers' tradition to heart. I think he will suit their DNA and make them first hard to beat, then dominant up front.
"Rotation will be key this term, especially with the new 30 game regulations for players"
Will it?
Bath face:
- 18 x Prem
- maximum 8 x Champions Cup
Internationals face up to:
- 4 x AIs, 5 x 6Ns
On the basis that only Russell, maybe Lawrence, and possibly SU are 'nailed-on' Int starters, even if we reach the CRC final, hardly any other players are going to go past 30 games (assuming pre-season friendlies don't count) before the summer tours start.
Minimal rotation please. We can get something out of this game with a strong 23 imho.
Have no issue juggling starters and benchers, rest up to a handful week to week but not a fan of wholesale changes for away games. As opti says not sure how big a challenge 30 game ruling is for vast majority of our squad- jvg will manage them as he sees fit
We won a lot of games comfortably last season at home and missed out narrowly on lots of points away. Will be interesting if we tweak that a bit this season. Everyone does the same thing- goes strong at home and weaker away. Personally think that offers a chance to think a bit differently.
Some will argue we played it perfectly last season but I think that is going in to last regular season round guaranteed a home semi rather than needing other results to go our way would have been perfect judgement.
Top 2 should absolutely be our goal. We are the only team who hasn't lost any key contributors from last season. As always will need some luck! It will be v v tight I imagine again.
In terms of Sunday I am a big nicky smith fan. I think their pack will cause us some real issues in the absence of tdt. If we can get parity at set piece I think we can sneak it.
Charlieboa1 In terms of Sunday I am a big nicky smith fan. I think their pack will cause us some real issues in the absence of tdt. If we can get parity at set piece I think we can sneak it.
Many thanks Rockobilly for the article. Difficult to tell after one game but our defence looked pretty sound last week or was that Exeter’s attack looking blunt? Our attack was nigh on non existent.
Smarter use of the bench last week than last season.
I hope your predictions are wrong but Bath are playing some very good rugby nowadays.
Not sure Griffin & Smith have been in Wales Camp together as Nicky has been in Garland’s wilderness!
Ollie Chessum is out for Tigers, but George Martin hopefully back to replace him.
Old Bath boy Watson is also available for selection but may not make the squad due to lack of match fitness!
(Question how do you get Match Fit nowadays if not fit enough to make the squad!!)
Very impressed with Cheika so far and a fascinating chat with him and Ben Youngs & Dan Cole on For the love of Rugby podcast this week.
Attack wise I think this will take a little while to develop with Peter Hewat (ex LI) also being new to the coaching team this season.
I think Johann will go full beans for this. Tigers look like Top 4 contenders so a win now could be a bit of an 8/10 pointer when it comes to home advantage in the playoffs.
As with pretty much any away trip I’m expecting a tough game although think Leicester are getting a bit overrated as a result of Chieka’s arrival. Assuming we go full strength a win should definitely be on the cards but a losing bonus not disastrous by any means.
No obvious changes to last week needed. Wouldn’t mind seeing Annett and Molony start though
Not expecting too many unforced changes from Tigers, so I reckon they will go with:
15 Freddie Steward
14 Josh Bassett
13 Izaia Perese
12 Dan Kelly
11 Ollie Hassell-Collins
10 Jamie Shillcock
9 Jack van Poortvliet
1 Nicky Smith
2 Charlie Clare
3 Joe Heyes
4 Harry Wells
5 George Martin
6 Hanro Liebenberg
7 Tommy Reffell
8 Kyle Hatherell
Interestingly the forecast is currently saying it should be relatively dry at kickoff, but the rain will likely roll in part way through the match, so this feels like a game where the side that can control the final 20 mins through forward dominance and pragmatic kicking will ultimately get the victory. Hopefully Bath's subs can have similar impact to the opening weekend.
Interesting choices in the backrow, hopefully the speed of Bayliss and Pepper will mean we can be quick to clear the rucks out before Reffell gets a chance to jackal.
Good to see Moloney get his debut, although part of me would have favoured pairing him with JdP to try and counter the heft of Martin.
Unchanged Bath backline as expected, interesting that Watson has gone straight in as a starter replacing Bassett (who is a really consistent operator in my view). So difficult to know how he'll perform seeing as this is his first competitive rugby of 2024, if they've misjudged his recovery journey it could lead to Brown/Steward on the wing.
It will be really interesting to see how Sela gets on against a seasoned loosehead in Cronin. If we can get parity in the scrum with our replacement props that would be a real positive.
Ewels, Hill and Coetzee off the bench should bring some good leadership/impact, I hope Carr-Smith has been watching Spencer closely in training, if/when he comes on we'll need a calm, controlled performance to come out on top.
All in all I'd say there's very little to separate the teams, could well come down to who manages the conditions better (as Tigers did at the Rec last season).
I like this team a lot. The fact we can rotate the back row like that is absurd
Scary how we can almost field 3 entirely different back rows that are first team quality and, as boozex3 suggests, pretty much play whichever back row is best able to negate the opposition's strengths there.
This is exactly the kind of selection I have been advocating.
Rest a few completely (reid I assume? Griffin? Jdp), move a few from bench to start and vice versa (hill, pepper) and bring some brand new in (sela, maloney, bayliss, tcs).
Still leaves a squad that's rotated but i think good enough to get a LBP and challenge for a win.
Watch it all go horribly wrong and I can go back in my box....
Tbf the key decision will be around the half backs and when they get rested.
We are just odds on for the win, Tigers almost 2/1, so we start as favourites but I think home advantage will swing it. Hope I'm wrong...
Adopted players: 24/25 J Bayliss; [24] O Lawrence; [23] J Cokanasiga; [22] M Green; [21] A Watson; [20] T Faletau; [19] M V Vuuren; [18] T Faletau; [17] D Denton; [16] H. Agulla; [15] L Houston; [14] W Spencer; [13] F. Louw
Oops, I see that Oddschecker still thinks there are 12 teams in the league and Saracens current champions…..
The 12-team Gallagher Premiership is the top-flight of English club rugby union. Saracens are the currant champions, winning their 5th title by beating Exeter Chiefs.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2024:09:27:23:18:32 by Pulteney.
V exciting with England hat on that it looks like fasogbon, aof and sela will have all got prem game this season by round 2.
Think it's bit too early for sela tbh but he won't progress this season just playing bucs and u20s rugby.
Jvg must have an extremely high opinion of him to throw him in aged 19. Assume verden is still about with tdt away so would have been the more conservative option.
Glad they have gone this route and hope he gets 10+ mins and not too rough a ride. Would really fuel his progress.
It shouldn't be on him to do this, but Spencer really needs to pull us up a level in the 2nd half. Some outright poor decisions being made in the red zone
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2024:09:29:15:52:38 by A.M 180.
Both wingers going off shows how horribly risky a 6:2 bench is.
I hope the coaches aren’t tempted to put Butt on the wing next week as he’s been sensational at 12.
@Hydor18 Both wingers going off shows how horribly risky a 6:2 bench is.
I hope the coaches aren’t tempted to put Butt on the wing next week as he’s been sensational at 12.
Let’s do a bullet mis pass to a flanker on the wing- doh!
We were far from our best, but just won at Welford Road!
I think Leicester are perhaps a touch off being truly back on today's showing but turning them over today will have made our life easier towards the end of the regular season so job done
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2024:09:29:16:55:26 by A.M 180.
A.M 180 Right thing to kick out there
We were far from our best, but just won at Welford Road!
I think Leicester are perhaps a touch off being truly back on today's showing but turning them over today will have made our life easier towards the end of the regular season so job done
Absolutely the right call.
We came hunting a point, we leave with 4.
Go for an extra 1, but risk losing 4 of them, just isn't worth it - especially with no wingers and an injured OSF.
I felt Russell was fine, aside from the kicking. Which is a big "aside" but we always knew was baked in. Should have given Spencer the tee earlier though.
After butchering so many try scoring opportunities in the opening 20 I thought we'd come to rue those missed chances, but it was our discipline throughout the game that really won it for us.
Pepper was excellent and is right up there with Underhill and Reid when it comes to openside options.
Coetzee made loads of hard yards and has probably earned a start ahead of Barbeary now.
Also Sela did well in the scrum all things considered, Cronin and Coles are seasoned pros and he didn't get overpowered.
Only slight negatives are the apparent injuries we picked up, assuming everyone that went off is out of next week's game, I'd change:
Cokanasiga replaced by McConnochie
Muir replaced by de Glanville, Bailey to fullback
Pepper (if injured) replaced by Underhill (if fit) or Reid
I'd also bring TdT back into the squad assuming that's possible, possibly on the loosehead as I'm happy with Stuart/Griffin at tighthead.
Wonder if Redpath will be fit? We're pretty low on replacement backs now, and he could offer good versatility from the bench.
A gritty win that had we converted our dominiance in the first quarter, or Finn had his kicking boots, would have been comfortable.
Thought Steward was extremely lucky with the knock on - he never had a chance of regathering and it was a desperate swing to avoid Pepper going in under the sticks.
Well done to Billy Sella - three scrums against a hugely experienced pair of Tigers props and held up no issues.
Hope JoCo and the Horse are Ok.
Wins at Welford Road are never to be sniffed at.
That might be our worst red zone efficiency since JvG got here. Really liked the first phase try off the scrum, the sort of thing we've not had for quite a while. Kudos to Lee Blackett.
hasta Cam's not getting in ahead of Butt at the moment.
Agree with that, he has definitely found his place, great win, not many of them at Welford road ! Well done to all could have/should have had a few more points but move on to next week.
Adopted Player 2018/19 Ross Batty
Adopted Player 2019/20 Jack Davies
Adopted Player 2020/21 Cam Redpath
Adopted Player 2021/22 Darren Atkins
Adopted Player 2022/23 Gabriel Hamer-Webb
Adopted Player 2023/24 Tom Carr-Smith
Adopted Player 2024/25 Max Ojomoh
"AN OUNCE OF ACTION IS WORTH A TON OF THEORY"
FRIEDRICH ENGELS
Stuart unlucky on those scrum penalties JK. Ref looked at his leg position but Smith (or was it Cronin?) was pulling down with the elbow and his knee hit the ground first- clear indicators that he was the culprit.
Funny old game today. On paper a well ground out win at Welford Road but in reality could well have been a BP win and a more comfortable outcome based on the chances created.
Always better to know the firepower is there and they just haven’t been finished than struggling to get anything going with the ball. Butt, Lawrence, Pepper and Roux were the standouts for me and thought Russell was good as a playmaker despite a bit of a stinker with his feet.
Leicester put up a good fight and should be tough to beat most weeks but I’m not sure where much phase play or pattern threat is coming from with that squad. Think they’re overly reliant on set piece points and big carries from a couple of players to trouble better defences
hasta Maybe see Harris at 15 with TdG and Emens or Ruraidh on the wings?
If Redpath is good to start I expect Butt will be on the wing. It’s not all that fair but needs must if we’ve lost our front three wingers. If Redpath isn’t ready then Butt stays at 12
If Gallagher was still at 15 I'd agree with you Opti, but with TdG (or hopefully in the future Harris) there, it's less critical. It's two games, but a. Butt has been playing really well and b. he also seems to be bringing a lot out of Lawrence.
hasta Cam's not getting in ahead of Butt at the moment.
Disagree.
Butt has been exceptional so I cannot see Cam replacing him at present though we have issues with whom to play on the wing where Butt has been effective before. I would certainly feel that Butt currently jumps ahead of Ojomoh in the pecking order.
hasta Two injured wings, the worst Finn has ever played, should have won by 25.
Yep, frustrating but v impressive.
Left a lot of points out there through inaccuracy in the red zone plus appalling kicking.
Tbf leic last ditch defending was good and they obviously butchered some chances themselves.
Wins away to leic are a rare thing and good decision yo bank the 4 points at the end I think- we would all have taken 9 pts from our first 2 fixtures.
Some decent individual performances- pepper showing he is a live contender for a cup final 23, coetzee always v impactful off the bench, butt and lawrence a real handful in midfield. Loved seeing sela trusted for over 10 mins in a tight game and he held his own against a v experienced replacement front row.
JK7 Any lingering doubts about Butt banished.
Where was Griffin this week? Stuart wasn't great IMO, gave away pens in the scrum and the loose.
I thought Stuart played well yesterday. He looked good in the loose and I thought Smith was driving in at an angle. I know some were keen for us to sign Smith but he didnt really do much yesterday. Hope Van Wyk enjoyed shaking Harry Wells hand at the end!
In spite of the profligacy the ability to put themselves in those potentially try scoring positions was pleasing. Will happily bring the points back from Welford Road - I'm not sure too many teams will this year, they seem to have their 'dog' back.
hasta Maybe see Harris at 15 with TdG and Emens or Ruraidh on the wings?
I would go harris at 15 with tdg and rmc on the wings personally.
Keep butt at 12 and bailey on the bench
Normally I’d agree and think this is quite likely to happen. My hesitation would be that it’s a tough defensive matchup for RMC given Bristol have probably the most athletic pair of wingers in the league. He has the experience but I wonder if Butt v Naulago is a better match up for us (moot point if Redpath isn’t ready to go)
hasta If Gallagher was still at 15 I'd agree with you Opti, but with TdG (or hopefully in the future Harris) there, it's less critical. It's two games, but a. Butt has been playing really well and b. he also seems to be bringing a lot out of Lawrence.
Pretty rare in English rugby to have 3 x genuine contenders (5 if you count Orlando and the current England inside centre) for the 12 shirt! What's going on!!!
Good point, Opti. Amazing to think how our back play for the years between Ford/Kyle and the JvG era involved one out carries and dropped balls. TdG’s try yesterday was absolute poetry, with Butt’s hands perfect, and moves like that (well planned, expertly executed) are no longer an uncommon sight.
And what’s going on is that our 12s all get the chance to play outside of Finn Russell… im only half joking.
No need to fret over Finn’s kicking nightmare, if anyone is. He had several of those at the beginning of last season & was then excellent. He’s a player who struggles when his radar goes out of sinc but it’s just a temporary phase & if we can win away at Leicester despite that & not much going our way things are pretty rosy.
I'd say that even before we suffered the injuries to our wingers, we'd have been looking at the Bristol game and aiming to play a tighter, more forward orientated gameplan, given that Bristol look best in fast, open, unstructured matches.
Now that it looks like we'll be down to 3rd/4th choice wingers I think it's even more important that we roll out our absolutely first choice pack (hopefully including TdT, Hill and Underhill) to really try and dominate Bristol in the middle of the park.
Also we've got to be looking at exerting serious pressure on their scrum. They've lost Sinkler, leaving them with Lahiff/Kloska/Chawatama at tighthead , and Genge doesn't seem to be the scrummaging force he once was. You've got to feel a prop pairing of TdT and Obano (or Stuart and TdT) would fancy themselves in that matchup.
So in short, next game might be a case of stuffing it up the jumper.
Special mention for Lee Blackett. There were moments in the game where Bath looked capable of destroying the Leicester defence. After an opening salvo promised much Bath didn't quite gel but so happy to get the points.
Does anyone know if it's possible to still watch full match replays? Last season I'm pretty sure used to be ok through the PRTV app, but now seems to be only highlights.
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