By Rokobilly
April 17 2024
The European dream is over for both Bath and Exeter. We were literally blown away by a Devonian gale, Exeter figuratively so by a rampant Toulouse.
This week's return to Sandy Park offers the chance to keep the domestic dream alive. Win and the grip on a highly coveted Top 4 place tightens, lose and the FOMO will intensify.
Both sides could see significant changes. Exeter may need to rotate after two physical games back to back. We should be well rested but will have our first choice 10-12 axis in the stands as the injury list - so blessedly short so far this season - starts to lengthen. Harris and Hill were unwanted names that featured in this week's sobering update from Farleigh House.
The loss of Finn and Cam is very worrying. The (theoretically) firmer pitches of spring should be their playground. We can only wish them a speedy recovery and hope there is still something to play for if Finn makes it back this season.
Their replacements are hometown heroes and the opportunity needs to be taken by Landy and Max. Of the two, it is Bailey who has the most to gain.
His recent contract renewal was much applauded by those in this parish. There is a case to be made that he should have seem more minutes this season in case just this scenario unfolded. There is undoubtedly talent and potential in spades.
Yet there is also some uncertainty about the latter's fulfilment. His champions - and there are many - will point to a lack of opportunity. The pessimists will wonder why that those opportunities have been held back, as they glance across to Franklin Gardens, where Fin Smith - six months Landy's junior - is flying high.
Ultimately the pub arguments won't matter to Landy. He had the very public backing of JVG before Finn's injury and Lee Blackett will have worked closely with him all season. This is his moment to shine.
15 is the other major worry. Matt Gallagher is now the only recognised full back we have fit. McConnochie and Grace could step in but both would be makeshift options. It makes the bench split decision even more important.
If Hill doesn't recover for Saturday we have cover at 6, and in better news McNally and Van Velze return for selection. The cool head of GJVV may be important as the season's finals heats up.
We've not won at Sandy Park since 2016 when Roko found conjured last minute magic. It is time to put that record to bed.
A quick glance at my crystal ball suggests wins for Saracens, Saints, Bristol and Sale this weekend.
That would leave the points (ignoring BPs) as follows:
Saints 53
Sarries 46
Bristol 44
Quins 42
Sale 41
Tigers 39
We could be 48 and pulling clear of 5th with Exeter struggling on 40.
We could be stuck on 44, tied with Chiefs and Bears with no room for future error.
All to play for.
A possible 23:
Gallagher, Cokanasiga, Lawrence, Ojomoh, Muir, Bailey, Spencer, Obano, Dunn, Stuart Stooke, Ewels, Bayliss, Underhill, Barbeary.
Replacements: Annett, Schoeman, Du Toit, van Velze, Reid, Schreuder, Warboys, McConnochie
COYB!
Quote:Ali1969
Time as you say for us to put this unwanted record to bed - motivation will not be an issue and the great thing about Chiefs is you know pretty much how they will play:
I would expect a team similar to:
Gallgher
Joe C
Ollie L
Max O
Will M
Bailey
Spencer
Obano
Dunn
Stuart
Ewels
Jacque DP
Hill (if fit)/Bayliss
Underhill
Barbeary
Annett
Schoeman
Du Toit
Stooke/Roux
Coetzee
Bayliss/Hill/Reid
Schreuder
Grace if registered - offers that X factor or Butt.
Still feel Bayliss is a better option than Reid at present - really rate Miles but he does appear to miss key tackles at crucial times which are always glaring as a back row. Bayliss is just a phenomenon when fully fit speed of a back and power of a forward and offers extra protection if you get caught out with injuries a can easily play on wing or centres.
Grace is a bit like I F-W for them he is X factor and best of all Chiefs know next to both about him.
Stuart/Du Toit is just a call - personally I think Thomas has pulled away from Will in the power/scrummaging dept but what a luxury to have 2 World Class TH Props.
JDP will offer an even greater line out presence given Exeters dominance in that wind - conditions I fully expect will be totally different on Saturday. I know a lot of players from the previous game are really hurting after that performance and see Saturday as a real marker and a rare chance to put a few things right.
Quote:hasta
Harris being out is a real issue, he would be perfect for the bench in this situation.
Quote:hasta
Worboys has, at least, been regularly playing at 10 in a winning team. The biggest issue bath had when Cam went off was the team clearly had no idea where they were lining up.

Quote:shipwreckedQuote:hasta
Worboys has, at least, been regularly playing at 10 in a winning team. The biggest issue bath had when Cam went off was the team clearly had no idea where they were lining up.
Which was true and made it strange that OB moved to 12, he should have been in his natural position to organise the backs.
If JvG is confident in Bailey let him run the game and tell Spencer to give him the kicking duties. You cripple the confidence in the 10 to my mind if you don't.
Quote:hastaQuote:shipwreckedQuote:hasta
Worboys has, at least, been regularly playing at 10 in a winning team. The biggest issue bath had when Cam went off was the team clearly had no idea where they were lining up.
Which was true and made it strange that OB moved to 12, he should have been in his natural position to organise the backs.
If JvG is confident in Bailey let him run the game and tell Spencer to give him the kicking duties. You cripple the confidence in the 10 to my mind if you don't.
To the earlier point, Landy wasn't kicking last season when we got 20 points out of 20. If Spencer is the better kicker, Spencer kicks.

Quote:hasta
Gallagher does line kicking when Finn is on. I don't see Finn having his confidence crippled.

Quote:For me, the Hooper years of fielding 5 backrows with another 2 on the bench because we'd run out of locks (or vice versa, or drafting in emergency cover so that we can actually field a front row rather than forfeit matches) have redefined my view on "injury induced carnage"Charlieboa1
Landy and mojo is exciting at 10/12 but we are one more backline injury away from carnage I think.
Quote:HK890Quote:Ali1969
Time as you say for us to put this unwanted record to bed - motivation will not be an issue and the great thing about Chiefs is you know pretty much how they will play:
I would expect a team similar to:
Gallgher
Joe C
Ollie L
Max O
Will M
Bailey
Spencer
Obano
Dunn
Stuart
Ewels
Jacque DP
Hill (if fit)/Bayliss
Underhill
Barbeary
Annett
Schoeman
Du Toit
Stooke/Roux
Coetzee
Bayliss/Hill/Reid
Schreuder
Grace if registered - offers that X factor or Butt.
Still feel Bayliss is a better option than Reid at present - really rate Miles but he does appear to miss key tackles at crucial times which are always glaring as a back row. Bayliss is just a phenomenon when fully fit speed of a back and power of a forward and offers extra protection if you get caught out with injuries a can easily play on wing or centres.
Grace is a bit like I F-W for them he is X factor and best of all Chiefs know next to both about him.
Stuart/Du Toit is just a call - personally I think Thomas has pulled away from Will in the power/scrummaging dept but what a luxury to have 2 World Class TH Props.
JDP will offer an even greater line out presence given Exeters dominance in that wind - conditions I fully expect will be totally different on Saturday. I know a lot of players from the previous game are really hurting after that performance and see Saturday as a real marker and a rare chance to put a few things right.
Cant see it being sensible to play a 6/2 now with Worboys being the only 10 cover. Also not a chance we go into the game without a backup 10 option. It will either be
22. Worboys
23. Coetzee/Barbs
Or
22. Worboys
23. Butt
Very harsh on Reid imo - missed one tackle vs Quins after an unreal season. Saying he’s missed other crucial tackles isn’t fair. Deserves the place over Bayliss - However great to have so many options who are top quality.
Quote:shipwreckedQuote:hasta
Gallagher does line kicking when Finn is on. I don't see Finn having his confidence crippled.
Finn Russell is 31, Played in 6Ns, RWC's, 55 Tests, 2 Lions tours, played in France etc. etc. His rugby ego is mature. Orlando Bailey is 22, only ever played at Bath and still learning his trade. The two are simply not comparable.
I think he needs to be trusted more, JvG tells him to play his own game yet limits his role. JvG is more often than not spot on but this one I think JvG has got wrong. you clearly are happy with the status quo.
Quote:shipwreckedQuote:hasta
Gallagher does line kicking when Finn is on. I don't see Finn having his confidence crippled.
Finn Russell is 31, Played in 6Ns, RWC's, 55 Tests, 2 Lions tours, played in France etc. etc. His rugby ego is mature. Orlando Bailey is 22, only ever played at Bath and still learning his trade. The two are simply not comparable.
I think he needs to be trusted more, JvG tells him to play his own game yet limits his role. JvG is more often than not spot on but this one I think JvG has got wrong. you clearly are happy with the status quo.
Quote:dr.bath1865
I seriously think that Finn as water boy can be hugely beneficial too.
.
Quote:A.M 180Quote:dr.bath1865
I seriously think that Finn as water boy can be hugely beneficial too.
.
Surely he needs to be resting his groin!
Quote:gaz59
Wasn't that their starting 15 last week?
Quote:Optimist
I don't want to put the sign on any of them, but boy are our S&C/rehab team doing some fine work this season.
Quote:HK890
I actually haven’t been overly impressed by Lawrence so far so wouldn’t have be opposed to seeing 12. Butt 13. Ojomoh 22. Lawrence - But no doubt he will now have a scorcher.
Quote:Optimist
Can we please not go there with the pre-determining mentality of ‘ooh, this will be nip and tuck, let’s try to nick it by the odd point’. Just go there and play - all of our best results have come from playing a bit, or even a lot.
Quote:OutsideBath
Let’s not forget the elephant in the room, Bath’s appalling away form.
Quote:Bath Supporter Jack
I am in Lisbon at the moment, without my son, who would know.
Does anyone know how I can watch the match?
Quote:hasta
The notable difference (i.e. why we're in 2nd not 8th) is how many bps we've got in those away losses. So yes, we've only won two, but we've got 17 points from them all.
ETA: (also we haven't played Newcastle away).
Quote:P G Tips
Pressure finally pays - at last!
PG


Quote:Dorset Boy
So much Exeter off the ball dirty play

Quote:Dorset Boy
JK7 - looked to me like he knocked the kick off forward away from our pod. No effort to knock it back. Should have been a penalty.
Very lucky with the officials' interpretation of taking Will Muir out in the air. Hugely dangerous, he really was never getting that ball. Will landed on his neck / top of shoulders. Could easily have been red for I F-W with a different set of officials.
Quote:hasta
After a couple of very toy ropey lineouts, that's been a very solid half. One of those kicks in behind is gonna pay off.
Quote:Toast and Marmite
Is it just fatigue because this is weirdly disjointed from Exeter
Quote:Mike the Taxi
After 71/2 years, finally a win at Sandy Park, and a bonus too! Well done Bath!

Quote:plong
On the whole, I have been (and am) a big fan of Exeter but I am getting a little tired of the "hard-done-by" of Rob Baxter now... "We got too involved with other things", "Well done Bath for that", etc.
What about the incessant breakdown transgressions you got away with until the last 10mins (and regularly do in every game!!!). Not sure Exeter have ever entered a ruck from anywhere BUT the side!!!!
Quote:OutsideBath
Let’s not forget the elephant in the room, Bath’s appalling away form.
Quote:Bath Supporter Jack
Fabulous......now onto the next cup final next Friday night!
Quote:Rowancroft73
Chiefs fan here with objectivity.!
Never sure about Bath tho. Name in the hat for every big name available whether they fit the profile or not. But, hey ho, you’re as good as your last game and today was your day. All the best in the play offs.

Quote:Rowancroft73
Chiefs fan here with objectivity.!
No question, you totally deserved the win. If anything you were better than a 12 point win.
Given Chiefs have battled through the season with a ‘new’ young team and £2.2m under salary cap. im very pleased with our development and optimistic for the future.
Never sure about Bath tho. Name in the hat for every big name available whether they fit the profile or not. But, hey ho, you’re as good as your last game and today was your day. All the best in the play offs.
Quote:P G TipsQuote:OutsideBath
Let’s not forget the elephant in the room, Bath’s appalling away form.
You were saying.....?
PG
Quote:Rowancroft73
Chiefs fan here with objectivity.!
No question, you totally deserved the win. If anything you were better than a 12 point win.
Given Chiefs have battled through the season with a ‘new’ young team and £2.2m under salary cap. im very pleased with our development and optimistic for the future.
Never sure about Bath tho. Name in the hat for every big name available whether they fit the profile or not. But, hey ho, you’re as good as your last game and today was your day. All the best in the play offs.
Quote:Chef’s kiss!Widcombe boyQuote:Rowancroft73
Chiefs fan here with objectivity.!
No question, you totally deserved the win. If anything you were better than a 12 point win.
Given Chiefs have battled through the season with a ‘new’ young team and £2.2m under salary cap. im very pleased with our development and optimistic for the future.
Never sure about Bath tho. Name in the hat for every big name available whether they fit the profile or not. But, hey ho, you’re as good as your last game and today was your day. All the best in the play offs.
(Quote from after your Last 16 win ´But perhaps most worryingly for Bath fans as I saw it was they couldn’t match the passion, desire and sheer cussedness of the home team. Why? Surely they knew what was coming?)
Touché I don’t think Exeter could match the Passion, desire and sheer cussedness of the away team
Quote:theredseat
That game could still be going on now and Josh Hodge still wouldn’t have passed the ball to anyone.
Big talent but not so much that he can play like the best player in the under 12s and just run it past everyone whenever he gets the ball. Coaching intervention needed asap there
Quote:gaz59
Class stuff which we wouldn't have seen 2/3 years ago
Quote:dr.bath1865
Oh, and don’t have the stats, but our line out was much improved. Can’t underestimate how good Ewels was overall but he clearly got the lineout working.
Quote:Bath Hammer
It’s always a bit disappointing when we win to hear that our opponents played poorly. I don’t share that view. I think we played up to our ability & they didn’t play above theirs, both of which is unusual.
Quote:Murty7
I agree, I think Chiefs game plan has relied on the physicality of the forwards for a long time (its in Baxter's DNA) if you match or as we did get on top there they struggle.
I found Baxter's comments just after half time disingenuous as it was mainly Exeter with the off the ball stuff niggle and illegal breakdown work.
I normally like what he has to say but his comments on Saturday we poor. I wonder if the message in the dressing room was the same?
Quote:theredseat
I don’t think Exeter were particularly bad. Below par maybe but they didn’t stink the place out by any means.
They’re a young team without a huge amount of depth or experience so their margin for error week to week is always higher than other teams plus Bath came in rested which helped as well.
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:theredseat
I don’t think Exeter were particularly bad. Below par maybe but they didn’t stink the place out by any means.
They’re a young team without a huge amount of depth or experience so their margin for error week to week is always higher than other teams plus Bath came in rested which helped as well.
Stolen from Ballsout on the Exe board:
- Bath team average age: 26.9
- Exeter team average age: 26.4
I think that people see Exe as being so green this season because it comes of the back of a team that were so experienced and had won it all. After all, their backs included 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Olly Woodburn none of which are spring chickens and even Harvey Skinner is 26 and Bailey is 22 (Max Ojomoh is 23).

Quote:Murty7
I agree, I think Chiefs game plan has relied on the physicality of the forwards for a long time (its in Baxter's DNA) if you match or as we did get on top there they struggle.
I found Baxter's comments just after half time disingenuous as it was mainly Exeter with the off the ball stuff niggle and illegal breakdown work.
I normally like what he has to say but his comments on Saturday we poor. I wonder if the message in the dressing room was the same?
Quote:I've not read the full article and Barnes isn't my cup of tea but not sure what there is to object to in the above? Sounds spot on.Clarkey3k
In essence Exeter were tired after their HC effort v Toulouse whilst we had a fortnight off. Exeter will struggle to make the playoffs whilst we won't trouble Saints if we repeat that performance.
Quote:Clarkey3k
Stuart Barnes wrote a v snippy report about Bath and the game in yesterday's Sunday Times. I'll put up a few comments later today unless I can get it from behind a paywall. In essence Exeter were tired after their HC effort v Toulouse whilst we had a fortnight off. Exeter will struggle to make the playoffs whilst we won't trouble Saints of we repeat that performance. V disappointing read, put me off my toast and marmalade...
Quote:Iane2103
I wasn't impressed with Baxter either - he was a sore loser (usually like me after play Exeter). I thought Bath fronted up well and made it difficult for Exeter to play their reckless game Sara Cox didn't miss much of what Exeter were up to and letting the ref know. As a consequence Exeter were persuaded to stay clean apart from the non try when Painter took out Dunn. I thought Dunn was going to flatten him - well spotted by TMO.
Quote:Woodpecker
Exeter will struggle to make the play-offs. Toulouse left a mark on them. As for Bath, they will have to be much better than they were to trouble the likes of Northampton. It may have been a first win at Sandy Park since 2016 but don’t confuse that with being remotely the stuff of champions.
thats from Barnes - wow on 2016!
[www.thetimes.co.uk]
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:theredseat
I don’t think Exeter were particularly bad. Below par maybe but they didn’t stink the place out by any means.
They’re a young team without a huge amount of depth or experience so their margin for error week to week is always higher than other teams plus Bath came in rested which helped as well.
Stolen from Ballsout on the Exe board:
- Bath team average age: 26.9
- Exeter team average age: 26.4
I think that people see Exe as being so green this season because it comes of the back of a team that were so experienced and had won it all. After all, their backs included 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Olly Woodburn none of which are spring chickens and even Harvey Skinner is 26 and Bailey is 22 (Max Ojomoh is 23).
Quote:P G Tips
Agreed.
He has a very good manner with players, controls the game well and took no bovine dung from either side.
PG
Quote:P G Tips
I thougt our performance very like Saracens of 10 years ago.
Wore Ex down with kicking & defence & pounced on their errors for tries.
PG
Quote:hastaQuote:P G Tips
I thougt our performance very like Saracens of 10 years ago.
Wore Ex down with kicking & defence & pounced on their errors for tries.
PG
The Mojo try felt very Sarries to me.
Quote:theredseat
My two points on that would be that I’d be surprised if it included the Exeter bench which seemed particularly inexperienced and that, on the whole, our players seem to have played a lot more rugby at a young age than Exeter’s
Bailey and IFW are both 22 and Bailey has played about 70 first team games compared to less than a seasons worth for IFW. Skinner is four years older and only has 20 more appearances as well. Ojomoh and Hodge also the same age and Max has plenty more experience in that time.
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:theredseat
My two points on that would be that I’d be surprised if it included the Exeter bench which seemed particularly inexperienced and that, on the whole, our players seem to have played a lot more rugby at a young age than Exeter’s
Bailey and IFW are both 22 and Bailey has played about 70 first team games compared to less than a seasons worth for IFW. Skinner is four years older and only has 20 more appearances as well. Ojomoh and Hodge also the same age and Max has plenty more experience in that time.
This is true TRS, but someone like Harvey Skinner has been at Exe forever, Baxter can't complain about him not having a load of experience when it has been under his watch?
Ojomoh and Hodge are the same age but actually have pretty similar experience, for example below are the Prem minutes.
Year Max O Hodge
19/20: 84 190
20/21: 172 340
21/22: 1200 758
22/23: 834 983
23/24: 707 407
total: 2997 2678
(Hodge a few less this year because of his arm injury I guess)
Quote:hasta
If some of the younger (not young) players at Ex don't have as much game time, maybe it's because they always pick a first team for the Prem Rugby Cup?
I've always been really impressed with Hodge before, there's no doubt he had an absolute stinker at the weekend, but it might just be a one off.
Quote:hasta
If some of the younger (not young) players at Ex don't have as much game time, maybe it's because they always pick a first team for the Prem Rugby Cup
Quote:OldMarovian
Looking at the two squads I'd say Chiefs feels both younger and less experienced but that's just an impression.
Quote:joethefanatic
I've finally managed to watch the game (I was free diving with oceanic white tip sharks at the time)
Quote:JK7Quote:joethefanatic
I've finally managed to watch the game (I was free diving with oceanic white tip sharks at the time)
I often find that this interferes with my rugby watching, too. Frankly it's a nuisance.

Quote:BathMatt53
I really like Chris Ashton as a pundit. He has the fun angle without the AH 'smart-a$$' approach and is up there with BOD for me.

