Smith: heir apparent?

By PG Tips
August 30 2021

The 2022 Season starts three weekends from now. Before then there will be the usual round of warm up “friendlies” where squads will try out their game plans and both coaches and supporters get a chance to assess their clubs’ new signings. The off season transfer market has been busy, with most clubs shedding more players than they recruit in response to the reduced salary cap. At first glance it will be “the usual suspects” vying for honours again. Let’s look at the main contenders.

As well as salary cap constraints, player welfare considerations – especially for clubs with large Lions contingents- and possible Covid 19 disruptions place a premium on careful squad management. The season will last 10 months, with the same international demands as always. Clubs possessing strength in depth, versatile players and above all, good luck with injuries, are those most likely to thrive. Last season’s Top Four pulled clear of the pack with time to spare. They should all be in the mix again but will face stern challenges from some older hands looking to reprise past glories.

Principal of these will be the bogey men, pantomime villains Saracens, restored to the topflight after their punishment demotion last season. They will miss their 5 Lions in the early rounds and quite possibly the Autumn Internationals too. They will though be reinforced by the return of international quality players Earl, Isiekwe, Malins and Lozowski from loan, most of whom starred for their temporary clubs last campaign. Their most notable signings, predictably, have been to beef up the pack- Samoan Theo McFarland (also a basketball international) joining Tim Swinson (who has extended by a year) in the second row. Ivan van Zyl, a Springbok from the Bulls could be another key signing at scrum half, often the fulcrum of Saracens playmaking. Any ring rust hangover from last season’s Championship rugby should be countered by these additions and the usual driven Wolf Pack culture. Expect them to be in the playoffs come June.

Next must be last season’s darlings of press and neutrals, Harlequins. Their approach to the final rounds, lacerating the defences first of Bristol, then Exeter, was delightful to watch, even though they rode their luck with forward passes. Their strengthening is in the backs with Italian fly half Tommaso Allen and Scotland centre Huw Jones joining Marchant, Lynagh, Northmore and of course, Marcus Smith, England’s fly half heir apparent. It will be fascinating to see if new DOR Tabai Matson sticks by the instinctive style that served Quins so well last year. They should once again be title contenders.

Exeter, another club with a large Lions contingent, could find the season’s early weeks a challenge. 3 of their 4 Lions are forwards – an area in which they have recruited only sparingly- Australian lock Ryan McAuley and Ex Bath man Sam Nixon the only incomers, with the experienced Tomas Francis and Elvis Taione departing. Wing Alex Cuthbert is another to leave. Their major issue though, may be the 50:22 law change and the goal line dropout, designed to discourage the pick and drive which has been such a rich source of points in recent seasons. Normally I would expect any disruption in playing personnel to be offset by their tried and trusted playing formula. Will the new laws stimulate a different game plan? In joe Simmonds, Devoto, Slade, O’Flaherty and Hogg they certainly have the players to rediscover the more expansive rugby of 2016-17. I can see some early teething troubles but they should be challenging for honours towards the end.

At one stage last season Bristol seemed to be cruising to the title -or at least the final. Cracks appeared in the last few rounds with defeats by Exeter and Sale and a fright from Leicester. They were then undone by the magic of Marcus Smith and his Quins teammates in a performance that outdid Bristol’s own free-flowing style. With the return of Earl and Malins to Saracens and the departure of Siale Piutau, they look more weakened than strengthened by off season transfers, most of their incomers being academy promotions. They should still be exciting to watch and too strong for most opposition but may be vulnerable to challenge from last year’s mid table teams.

The other potentially vulnerable team from the 2021 Top Four are Sale. Not through any specific weakness, but the possibility of stagnation. Their squad shows the least movement of all – a complete front row out, a complete replacement front row in. That could mean stability to continue the rebuild under Alex Sanderson – or a lack of new stimulus. Certainly, while highly effective, there is an air of predictability in their play and if their pack can be held and De Klerk’s kicking game countered, they are beatable, as Wasps, Newcastle, Bath & Northampton (all of whom finished the season lower in the table) proved last season. Sale’s heavy reliance on South Africans means a late start for 5 members of the Springbok summer squad, although only de Jager and De Klerk, the two Test players, are likely to miss many games. This could be a season of consolidation, but the chasing pack will eye them as one to topple.

So there are five leading contenders, but only four can make the Playoffs. Which of the five will fall by the wayside? Or could more than one club slip out of the high rankings? Next week I will look at the prospects for the remaining clubs, several of whom, Bath included, could mount a credible challenge.

SEASON PREVIEW: THE USUAL SUSPECTS?

Discussion started by Comeonmylovers.co.uk (IP Logged), 30/08/2021 09:52

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30/08/2021 09:52

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021:09:06:10:42:21 by P G Tips.

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OldMarovian
03/09/2021 22:15

That's an excellent piece PG Tips.

FWIW I think we have an absolute cracker of a season ahead of us. I don't see either a clear top or relegation candidate at the outset which is a positive and to me the middle order has tightened up considerably with International and Lions rest absences further helping to even the odds during the regular season.

Eddie Jones will have a big say in things based on his picks for Internationals too.
I love the manner in which last season finished and Quins were a joy to watch. If they lose Smith and possibly Dombrandt for a big chunk of the season that could be tricky though.
Chiefs need to back up their double and of all the teams in the Premiership some of the Law changes have the potential to hurt them most in my view.
I'm looking forward to seeing Sandersons second season with Sale. They've kept the squad pretty much the same which is often a key part of building a good team and whilst they'll miss some of their SA players they have very talented youngsters able to step up like Quirke at SH.
I like the look of our Sarries squad and with quite a few players unavailable due to Lions rest/Internationals over the coming season I think we'll get a good feeling for the depth of our squad.
Of the other teams pretty much all of them have made changes that should/could make them more competitive this season whether it's the rebuild that Wuss have undertaken, the return of injured good young talent at Wasps or your own addition of Cipriani to ignite your attack.
Bristol are the wild-card for me. It's not obvious to me that they've improved in squad terms since last season and the manner in which they went out in the semi-finals is a concern given they had been show-casing that wobbly form in the close of season and Lam seemed unable to stop his players going off-script.
That said I enjoy how they play and given Sarries opening game is to them away I will doubtless have egg on my face in a fortnights time!
In terms of Bath I can't call it. You always have a great team on paper and I hope for you that Cipriani is the link that can help pull the whole package together. I'm looking forward to seeing Obano, Ellis, Watson, Wright and Bayliss in particular and will be fascinated to see how Spencer does with a player like Cipriani outside him.
Bets of luck for an an enjoyable season.

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joethefanatic
04/09/2021 00:46

There will be no relegation this season.

... IMHO, of course.

Now in Honolulu

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OldMarovian
04/09/2021 13:05

Swap 12th place for relegation is you would like to be precise by all means

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joethefanatic
04/09/2021 20:36

Quote:

OldMarovian
Swap 12th place for relegation is you would like to be precise by all means

I think being in the Championship might have distracted you. There are 13 teams in the Prem this season

... IMHO, of course.

Now in Honolulu

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OldMarovian
05/09/2021 07:10

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dcsh
05/09/2021 08:54

Tigers looked strong towards the end of last season, with a solid preseason I expect them to be challenging for the top 6 again. Hopefully this will be an exciting season with many strong teams and several who it’s hard to predict at this point either due to mass change or minimal….

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