Bath
Spring foward or fall back?
All to play for
By PG Tips
March 15 2014
With no Bath match to review for this weekend, there is a chance to reflect on the season so far and look to hopes and expectations for the coming 2 and half months.
After 2 successive defeats (the first time that has happened this season), some players may well welcome a weekend break. They will also want to take time to take stock, work out why they failed to win a home cup semi-final after a hammer blow start and dominating most of the first half.
Some felt that Bath should have chosen a stronger team to face Exeter, but I believe that we should trust the coaches. The losing margin was only 3 points and Bath gifted Exeter two tries by failing to clear their lines or defend sufficiently securely against the inevitable counter attack. The team chosen was strong enough to win, just not sharp enough on the day.
The improvement in results and in entertainment value since last season makes last Sunday’s result all the more annoying, but there is still much to play for. The other Cup competition, the Amlin is a further realistic chance of silverware. Beat Brive at home and a semi against either Gloucester or Wasps awaits. Reach the final and as the saying goes, it is all about the best team on the day.
So –in spring sunshine, how do we feel? Is it failure or fighting chance? Chokers or potential champions? Lying 3rd in the Premiership with 6 games to go and top seeds in the Amlin, it seems likely that 2014 will finish better for Bath than 2013. Let’s look at 3 factors on either side:
Reasons to be cheerful
- Players returning from 6 Nations. James, Wilson, Attwood & Ford due back in a week’s time, hardened and emboldened by their recent international experience.
- Winnable games. Beat Brive & the Amlin Cup Semi Final pits us against a team we have already beaten this season. 5 of the remaining 6 Premiership matches are against sides below us in the table.
- Players returning from injury. Reports suggest that Carl Fearns will be available for the London Irish game & Rob Webber & Jonathon Joseph will be fit to play some part in the season – albeit close to the end.
Reasons to be doleful:
- Defence. One of the few positives of last year is not the strength it was. Whether that is due to the absence of Brad Davies, a general loosening of play from the greater attacking ambition, or that opponents are finally working us out, we are conceding tries which we should not.
- Bonus points. Bath has collected the fewest bonus points (tries or loser) of any AP side. If we want a secure top 4 spot we need to sort that – now.
- The final 2 games. In a tight chase for that 3rd place spot, meeting Northampton at home then 5th placed Quins away in our last 2 fixtures is hardly ideal. We could of course be comfortably paced by then, but any slip in the earlier games will mean these are tense matches for players and fans.
The promise of the season as a whole points to Bath finishing 3rd – a place most pundits would say is deserved. Realists among Bath’s fans would probably see Saracens and Northampton as a step ahead and likely AP Finalists. Both Leicester and Harlequins have been resurgent in recent weeks, so it will be tough, it will be close, but I believe that Bath can do it. 3rd place in the league brings a playoff spot and a knockout chance to take a crack at a final. Spurred on by frustration at last Sunday’s result, I expect the team to make it to the Amlin final. If these predictions come true I think many Bath fans would call the season a success.
I will make no more predictions at this point but say: “bring it on! No falling back-spring forward & seize the chance!”
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Discussion started by PG Tips (IP Logged), 15/03/2014 11:11
15/03/2014 11:11
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:26:12:28:03 by TCM2007.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:26:12:28:03 by TCM2007.
It will only be a good season if we finish in the top four imho.
The LV we played a strong team up until the the semis when we were found wanting.
Their has been massive investment in the playing staff and their has been improvements but for me it counts for nothing if we don't get into the play offs.
The LV we played a strong team up until the the semis when we were found wanting.
Their has been massive investment in the playing staff and their has been improvements but for me it counts for nothing if we don't get into the play offs.
Our perspective changes through the season. For most of us before it started HC qualification would have been a solid step forward. Very few thought we would make the playoffs. There was a thread on predictions and there was quite a consensus about 5th.
Obviously it would be a disappointment not to get there now. Given the run ins I think it's 50/50.
Glad you now agree about the AP being the most important thing.
Bri, you are wrong about the LV; the semi final team was of the same strength as the majority of the pool games.
Stuart
Former ed.
Obviously it would be a disappointment not to get there now. Given the run ins I think it's 50/50.
Glad you now agree about the AP being the most important thing.
Bri, you are wrong about the LV; the semi final team was of the same strength as the majority of the pool games.
Stuart
Former ed.
As I said a lot stronger than other LV teams until we played Exeters full strength side.
Quote:Bri
As I said a lot stronger than other LV teams until we played Exeters full strength side.
Sorry Bri, can't understand what you are saying?
Stuart
Former ed.
i think what he's saying is that we took it seriously, playing our best 'A' string players and development squad. We did fine until we met a team playing their first choice players to win the only trophy they had a shot at
What he's saying is we played our best A string players but unlike Quins last year we failed to deliver against a better team.
Thinking back to the start of the season I would have personally been pleased with HC (or whatever it'll be called ) rugby next year, that's it, with anything else coming as a pleasant but unexpected surprise. With the way we've played so far this season I would now expect more but still be happy with my original target.
With so many players really exceeding the expectations of so many of us on this board, OD, JJ, KE, MG, LH, GF,(Francois is still bloody good but not at his best and Matt B needs to have a good chat with himself) I only wonder what changes we need to make to compete in the future, against the big 2 - is it recruitment or tactics orientated? Ie, we have a strong team but unless we acquire the likes of Giteau etc I can't see it happening internally.
Hope I'm wrong by the way.
And For what it's worth Bri, good to have you still!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:15:21:11:25 by Purns.
With so many players really exceeding the expectations of so many of us on this board, OD, JJ, KE, MG, LH, GF,(Francois is still bloody good but not at his best and Matt B needs to have a good chat with himself) I only wonder what changes we need to make to compete in the future, against the big 2 - is it recruitment or tactics orientated? Ie, we have a strong team but unless we acquire the likes of Giteau etc I can't see it happening internally.
Hope I'm wrong by the way.
And For what it's worth Bri, good to have you still!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:15:21:11:25 by Purns.
One of the "big 2" actually finished fourth in each of the last three seasons; we always think these things are fixed but actually teams move around a lot.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
Fair shout Stuart, then replace 'big 2' with 'the standard of rugby the two teams who occupy positions 1 and 2 in the league play'!
Last year the LV was probably the limit of our expectations; this season it’s a distant third. That, to me, is the measure of the progress this team is making.
That said, its like being in the red zone - if you don’t return with points/rewards it will be seen as a failure.
That said, its like being in the red zone - if you don’t return with points/rewards it will be seen as a failure.
It's not the same team as last year,we had massive injection of players,it's only a successful season if we make the top 4 or win one of the minor cups.
It's a successful season if we've made positive progress.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
Quote:FourSticks
That said, its like being in the red zone - if you don’t return with points/rewards it will be seen as a failure.
We very very often panic when in the red zone, it's frustrating to watch. So many chances butchered.
Like most I'm fearful of the 'failure' to keep our momentum going
I'm encouraged by the return of Attwood and Ford mostly. I think Attwood's showing in the last 2 games for England will have given him great confidence to lead the pack.
Tom's nowhere near George at the moment as we saw against Exe last Sunday.
Agree Leicester are beginning to fire, but not so Harlequins and I would like to think we could beat them away this Season. Bet it'll be a game where either team reaches the top 4! The other ends up 5th.
I'm encouraged by the return of Attwood and Ford mostly. I think Attwood's showing in the last 2 games for England will have given him great confidence to lead the pack.
Tom's nowhere near George at the moment as we saw against Exe last Sunday.
Agree Leicester are beginning to fire, but not so Harlequins and I would like to think we could beat them away this Season. Bet it'll be a game where either team reaches the top 4! The other ends up 5th.
Failure in the Red zone is no doubt the main reason Sam Burgess is recruited for next season. The defence is a worry but I feel when Fearns is back we will be tougher to score against.
Quote:Number 6 Garvey, Number 7 Louw , Number 8 Fearns? The strongest Bath back line.Bri
Fearns back?drop who Garvey?
Drop one of our stand out performers Leroy?Consistanly.
He's up their with the Welsh 8.Its not all about a couple of big hits in a game.
He's up their with the Welsh 8.Its not all about a couple of big hits in a game.
Quote:Bri
Drop one of our stand out performers Leroy?Consistanly.
He's up their with the Welsh 8.Its not all about a couple of big hits in a game.
Agreed, Leroy is quicker round the park and stays on his feet better than Carl who seems to go to ground as soon as contact is made
Out of all our recruitment Leroy was a undiscovered gem,everybody knew about the other but Leroy wow what a player he's turned out for us.
He said he loves it here and I hope he's here for a while.
Well done Gary Gold.
Fearns for me is also outstanding and I hope theirs still more to come from him but for me he's not a 8.
He said he loves it here and I hope he's here for a while.
Well done Gary Gold.
Fearns for me is also outstanding and I hope theirs still more to come from him but for me he's not a 8.
The disappointment for me is that while our pack is strong it isn't the dominant force it was at the beginning of the season - maybe because of the absence of Atwood, Fearns, Wilson & Webber- but even with them it had declined. That together with a leaky defence leaves us vulnerable to teams we would have crushed earlier in the season. We have now lost 2 matches from bad defending & almost those against Wasps & Exeter. The game against LI will probably be a good indicator as to how the season pans out. We could remain in 3rd as a no doubt resurgent Leicester have tough games ahead or mixed results could see us in 5th which would now be a step backwards.
Maybe other teams are finally adapting to the new rule changes with re. the scrums. I'm interested to see how we perform in that area next week with David and Paul packing down. Two world class international props, some fantastic recruitment there.
Fearnes is a great impact sub to come on and smash holes in tired defenders. His versatility makes him perfect for that too. But Leroy has been unreal so far this season so will always been the starting 8 for me. What a character too...I don't think he ever stops smiling.
Fearnes is a great impact sub to come on and smash holes in tired defenders. His versatility makes him perfect for that too. But Leroy has been unreal so far this season so will always been the starting 8 for me. What a character too...I don't think he ever stops smiling.
Houston is a very good reliable 8 who is improving with the harder grounds and more game time and starts.
I struggle to see Fearns as a better player in a back row of Garvey, Louw and Leroy, that seem to complement each other and are better ball players and faster than Fearns. He may offer more strength but his lack of pace and handling ability may be one of the reasons we leaked more tries this season? Not saying all his fault but IMHO Not in the same class as the aforementioned 3. Also he has been injured quite a lot which also does not help the continuity of the team. Who would people drop to accommodate him and why?
I struggle to see Fearns as a better player in a back row of Garvey, Louw and Leroy, that seem to complement each other and are better ball players and faster than Fearns. He may offer more strength but his lack of pace and handling ability may be one of the reasons we leaked more tries this season? Not saying all his fault but IMHO Not in the same class as the aforementioned 3. Also he has been injured quite a lot which also does not help the continuity of the team. Who would people drop to accommodate him and why?
I don't think Fearns would significant weaken that back row. But it wouldn't strengthen it.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
Fearns is quality,just goes to show the strength of our back rows,if only we could say the same of the second rows.
You really are a misery this week Bri, maybe you should just go and have a sit down with a nice bottle of wine and come back in a few days when you've cheered up a bit.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
My perspective is that whilst we've made great improvements over last season we're not a top 4 team yet.
I think the current league position flatters us, and we appear better than we are due to the underperformance of Tiggers and Quins.
Tiggs have been decimated by injuries this season. Had their squad been at full strength for most of the season I don't think we'd be above them.
Quins have underperformed compared to the last 2 seasons - whether they've settled to their true level this season, or whether they will strengthen and be better next season we have to wait and see.
What I think is apparent is we have progressed beyond the other nearly boys - Exeter, Wasps, Irish, & Sale.
So I see us as about 5th best - currently above that due to the poor performances of the other 2 clubs.
Now the internationals are out the way I can see Quins ending the season strongly, and as Leicester get more of their big players fit they will improve too. We might hang on for 4th, but I think 5th is the most likely. As said earlier it may well come down to a lack of bonus points.
I think the current league position flatters us, and we appear better than we are due to the underperformance of Tiggers and Quins.
Tiggs have been decimated by injuries this season. Had their squad been at full strength for most of the season I don't think we'd be above them.
Quins have underperformed compared to the last 2 seasons - whether they've settled to their true level this season, or whether they will strengthen and be better next season we have to wait and see.
What I think is apparent is we have progressed beyond the other nearly boys - Exeter, Wasps, Irish, & Sale.
So I see us as about 5th best - currently above that due to the poor performances of the other 2 clubs.
Now the internationals are out the way I can see Quins ending the season strongly, and as Leicester get more of their big players fit they will improve too. We might hang on for 4th, but I think 5th is the most likely. As said earlier it may well come down to a lack of bonus points.
Quote:fat lock
My perspective is that whilst we've made great improvements over last season we're not a top 4 team yet.
I think the current league position flatters us, and we appear better than we are due to the underperformance of Tiggers and Quins.
Tiggs have been decimated by injuries this season. Had their squad been at full strength for most of the season I don't think we'd be above them.
Quins have underperformed compared to the last 2 seasons - whether they've settled to their true level this season, or whether they will strengthen and be better next season we have to wait and see.
What I think is apparent is we have progressed beyond the other nearly boys - Exeter, Wasps, Irish, & Sale.
So I see us as about 5th best - currently above that due to the poor performances of the other 2 clubs.
Now the internationals are out the way I can see Quins ending the season strongly, and as Leicester get more of their big players fit they will improve too. We might hang on for 4th, but I think 5th is the most likely. As said earlier it may well come down to a lack of bonus points.
Excellent summary, +1 (although predicted 5th before start of season, hoping hang on for 4th)
Quote:. I too agree with this assessment. We have some exciting players & great potential but believe we have some way to go to be considered genuine title contendersfat lock
My perspective is that whilst we've made great improvements over last season we're not a top 4 team yet.
I think the current league position flatters us, and we appear better than we are due to the underperformance of Tiggers and Quins.
Tiggs have been decimated by injuries this season. Had their squad been at full strength for most of the season I don't think we'd be above them.
Quins have underperformed compared to the last 2 seasons - whether they've settled to their true level this season, or whether they will strengthen and be better next season we have to wait and see.
What I think is apparent is we have progressed beyond the other nearly boys - Exeter, Wasps, Irish, & Sale.
So I see us as about 5th best - currently above that due to the poor performances of the other 2 clubs.
Now the internationals are out the way I can see Quins ending the season strongly, and as Leicester get more of their big players fit they will improve too. We might hang on for 4th, but I think 5th is the most likely. As said earlier it may well come down to a lack of bonus points.
There aren't "deserved" league positions and "actual" league positions. The league position might be flattering today, because of how the fixtures fall, but after round 22 it will be accurate.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
I agree Stu to a degree
I'm not sure describing tables as accurate helps - tables are always accurate unless errors are made. What I believe they are is relative - your position in relation to the available opposition.
We all know there is a difference between playing a full strength team and a team missing 5 internationals.
Ultimately if you win it counts that you beat them and therefore you're better and you get the points and possibly finish above that team proving who is better.
However if looking at progress I believe looking at table positions even after 22 matches can be misleading.
Finishing higher up the table one year compared to the previous year only signifies progress if the other teams remain static. If other teams are weaker a rise up the table may only be because of their deterioration rather than your progress. Equally it is quite possible to improve but if you improve slower than your competitors in effect you have regressed.
But in essence I agree - if we finish in the top 4 we would have been one of the top four teams in the season. For reasons typed earlier I think we'll end up 5th - and I think we probably are about 5th best - so the table won't lie!
I'm not sure describing tables as accurate helps - tables are always accurate unless errors are made. What I believe they are is relative - your position in relation to the available opposition.
We all know there is a difference between playing a full strength team and a team missing 5 internationals.
Ultimately if you win it counts that you beat them and therefore you're better and you get the points and possibly finish above that team proving who is better.
However if looking at progress I believe looking at table positions even after 22 matches can be misleading.
Finishing higher up the table one year compared to the previous year only signifies progress if the other teams remain static. If other teams are weaker a rise up the table may only be because of their deterioration rather than your progress. Equally it is quite possible to improve but if you improve slower than your competitors in effect you have regressed.
But in essence I agree - if we finish in the top 4 we would have been one of the top four teams in the season. For reasons typed earlier I think we'll end up 5th - and I think we probably are about 5th best - so the table won't lie!
Finishing in the top four is way above what I thought we would achieve this season and I believed 6th would have been the best we could expect. However I have been proved wrong (again many will say) and have been overwhelmed by our success and in particular the play of young George Ford and Anthony Watson.
However I still believe we need more muscle and aggression up front and Attwood and Day st their best go a long way to meeting these needs. Both are still relatively young and will get better but we still need some solid experience old hand to really give the pack some grunt and physicality.
We are in much better shape than for many a year but have s long way to match The top 4 of Sarries,Saints,Tigers and Quins.
As well as finding a tough forward we also desperately need to find a top young scrum half.
However I still believe we need more muscle and aggression up front and Attwood and Day st their best go a long way to meeting these needs. Both are still relatively young and will get better but we still need some solid experience old hand to really give the pack some grunt and physicality.
We are in much better shape than for many a year but have s long way to match The top 4 of Sarries,Saints,Tigers and Quins.
As well as finding a tough forward we also desperately need to find a top young scrum half.
We lack grunt in the engine room for me,as much as I like big Dave Attwood he can't do it on his own.A big nasty second row please.
Hooper will be off next year as will Caldwell one would expect Day and Spencer are both good players and will do a job but for me it's the reason our pack is being matched of late even with the quality of James and Wilson.
Hooper will be off next year as will Caldwell one would expect Day and Spencer are both good players and will do a job but for me it's the reason our pack is being matched of late even with the quality of James and Wilson.
I don't think we have a long way to go to match Quins, I think we've already done that.
Can't see us reinforcing lock for next season, not with five or six options including a current England international.
As for hard nosed experience in the pack, that's James and Flo's remit.
Stuart
Former ed.
Can't see us reinforcing lock for next season, not with five or six options including a current England international.
As for hard nosed experience in the pack, that's James and Flo's remit.
Stuart
Former ed.
It's interesting how we all view the same team from different perspectives.
Personally I don't see a problem in the pack. I think we have good strength in depth - my only concern is having two English international tight heads - we may loose both for chunks of the season depending on how Cole recovers.
As for a 'tough forward' - I think what we have are tough enough - the game has moved on from having an 'enforcer' - it's more down to personal responsibility. I haven't seen any of our players shy away from sorting out their opposite number. That's quite different to whacking them and then making your team mates complete the game 1 player down.
Scrum- half needs sorting. Stringer staying on is good, but it also shows that there is no alternative available at the moment. Hopefully this sticking plaster will cover us till after world cup when an exceptional 9 will entertain us.
My concern is centres - I'm not sure the coaches know what the best combination is, I certainly don't, and Slammin Sam's arrival will only complicate selection. It does feel like all the ingredients are there, but somehow the recipe isn't quite right.
Personally I don't see a problem in the pack. I think we have good strength in depth - my only concern is having two English international tight heads - we may loose both for chunks of the season depending on how Cole recovers.
As for a 'tough forward' - I think what we have are tough enough - the game has moved on from having an 'enforcer' - it's more down to personal responsibility. I haven't seen any of our players shy away from sorting out their opposite number. That's quite different to whacking them and then making your team mates complete the game 1 player down.
Scrum- half needs sorting. Stringer staying on is good, but it also shows that there is no alternative available at the moment. Hopefully this sticking plaster will cover us till after world cup when an exceptional 9 will entertain us.
My concern is centres - I'm not sure the coaches know what the best combination is, I certainly don't, and Slammin Sam's arrival will only complicate selection. It does feel like all the ingredients are there, but somehow the recipe isn't quite right.
Games are won by the forwards and the backs determine by how many.
I agree with Bri, any money this coming round of signings needs to be for a rough tough second row or even a number 8. Attwood seems to be doing the tough stuff on his own and needs more support especially from the front row. Everyone seems to think Chilcott was the hitman but he was a pussycat compared to men like Richard Lee and the Lord Dawe. That's when we had a big tough pack backed up by Redman, Hall and even earlier, Spurrell. You need iron men in your pack to both win ball but also ensure that the opposition do not 'pick on' one of your own. I always believed opposition targeted Claassens as they knew if he stopped playing Bath stopped playing. That was made worse as we lacked 2/3 tough guys, and Danny was not the force he once was.
I want us to become a top side again and this will take time but we have done very well this season.
I agree with Bri, any money this coming round of signings needs to be for a rough tough second row or even a number 8. Attwood seems to be doing the tough stuff on his own and needs more support especially from the front row. Everyone seems to think Chilcott was the hitman but he was a pussycat compared to men like Richard Lee and the Lord Dawe. That's when we had a big tough pack backed up by Redman, Hall and even earlier, Spurrell. You need iron men in your pack to both win ball but also ensure that the opposition do not 'pick on' one of your own. I always believed opposition targeted Claassens as they knew if he stopped playing Bath stopped playing. That was made worse as we lacked 2/3 tough guys, and Danny was not the force he once was.
I want us to become a top side again and this will take time but we have done very well this season.
What "coming round of signings"?
I don't think there are any more to come.
I suspect that second row and back row are pretty much last on the coaches shopping list.
Stuart
Former ed.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:19:10:20:49 by TCM2007.
I don't think there are any more to come.
I suspect that second row and back row are pretty much last on the coaches shopping list.
Stuart
Former ed.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:03:19:10:20:49 by TCM2007.
The question for me is what do we have to do to close the gap on Sarries/Saints. We've improved massively this season, but the gap appears to be as wide as ever.
Have patience is the main thing. We have a bunch of very young super-talented players who will be coming into their prime in a few years having grown up together.
Add Burgess into the mix, and that looks like a plan to me.
Stuart
Former ed.
Add Burgess into the mix, and that looks like a plan to me.
Stuart
Former ed.
We're very clearly not in the class of Saints and Sarries (yet). We definitely are in the class of Quins and Tigers, having beaten both at home and drawn with Tigers away.
We've scored the third most points and conceded the 4th least. We've won the third most games. In what way aren't we a top four team?
Are Leicester worse than they were last year? Absolutely. Does that change our progress? Not really. Quins and Ex are also worse, Sale, Saints, Sarries are better. We've made the biggest improvement year-on-year of everyone in the competition.
Let's not forget that before the Sarries loss we had a fantastic run, best we've had for 10 years. We have a competitive pack, a developing attack. We will finish in the top four and we deserve to.
We've scored the third most points and conceded the 4th least. We've won the third most games. In what way aren't we a top four team?
Are Leicester worse than they were last year? Absolutely. Does that change our progress? Not really. Quins and Ex are also worse, Sale, Saints, Sarries are better. We've made the biggest improvement year-on-year of everyone in the competition.
Let's not forget that before the Sarries loss we had a fantastic run, best we've had for 10 years. We have a competitive pack, a developing attack. We will finish in the top four and we deserve to.
I think 9 is everything for us. Otherwise, we have a great team. I worry that we're forcing a year out of stringer in the hope of genia tomorrow. The next step is believing we area as good as saints and sarries.
Quote:Bri
We lack grunt in the engine room for me,as much as I like big Dave Attwood he can't do it on his own.A big nasty second row please.
Hooper will be off next year as will Caldwell one would expect Day and Spencer are both good players and will do a job but for me it's the reason our pack is being matched of late even with the quality of James and Wilson.
A special request please Bri. Can you please insert punctuation in your posts so we can all understand what you are trying to say.
Quote:DanWiley
The next step is believing we area as good as saints and sarries.
Absolutely. Act like a top 2 team. For example don't put your strongest team out in a a second tier competition, and if that means you lose, don't sweat it because it's not the big prize.
Stuart
Former ed.
I'd take go into each game knowing you're going to win(I know this is impossible, but champions don't) and have a second team that plays that way because it's the only way into the first.
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