By Rabble Rouser
August 7 2002

Not to be outdone by other Sportnetwork pundits, Rabble Rouser has a go at predicting who will finish where in the Zurich Premiership. Floozies, boozers, Fezboys and Loozers!

It seems all the rage to offer one’s opinions on the prospects of the sides taking part in this season’s Zurich Premiership. So, in alphabetical order, it’s time to give the Rabble Rouser account of who’ll be doing what.

Bath Rugby

Surely a contradiction in terms last year after this long-standing juggernaut of the game came off the rails, went down the embankment, rolled over half a dozen times and never righted itself. Predictions of a three-way scrap between them, Leicester and Wasps were very wide of the mark as the hapless West Countrymen lurched from calamity to disaster throughout the season. To arrest the slide they’ve recalled Jack Rowell, architect of one of their more successful eras in the past, and his work will be definitely cut out if they are to bounce back to anything bordering on the mediocre. Yes, they were THAT bad last year. I think that going backwards in order to go forwards is not the way to do it and I think they’ll struggle once again. Add to that a huge amount of dissatisfaction with the team running off-field affairs and it could well be a long season at the Rec. Bottom four for this lot.

Bristol Shoguns

After getting to Twickenham via Leicester (good on ‘em) last season hopes are high down the M4 that Bristol will finally shed that tiresome “sleeping giant” tag they keep banging on about. Well, eighth in the league isn’t what I would call spectacular and some (but not I) would question the commitment of Leicester in that Welford Road mudbath last may. Getting into the Heineken Cup is a great achievement, let it be said, but what Bristol fans seem to forget is that the Heineken isn’t the early season holiday that is the Parker Pen tournament and that there are no easy games. Leicester apart, none of the English sides did well in both league and European Cup last year and Bristol – not to mention Sale and London Irish – should take that into consideration as far as their lofty aspirations are concerned. Take your pick, Bris, it’s one or t’other. And I think they’ll struggle in both. Again, just about scraping into the playoffs in the ZP and not going beyond the group stages of the HC is all I think they can hope for.

Gloucester

As usual, the tractor boys’ confidence is sky-high. After decades of stretched jumpers down Kingsholm way, the Cherries have finally discovered some blokes who wear numbers 11,12,13,14 and 15 on their shirts and as a result, they’ve transformed their once dour style into open, flowing rugby. Nigel Melville’s arrival after a fairly successful time with Wasps will install some more belief. Could Glaws really give Leicester a run for their money? Fortress Kingsholm should be nigh-on impregnable but there is still a question surrounding the ability of this team on the road. Must be the long journeys they take on those tractors! Top four with some ease, I think, and perhaps one better than last year. Maybe two. But that’ll depend on how hungry the Tigers are and whether they progress to the knock-out stages of the Heineken. Going far in that could well take their eye of the ZP prize.




NEC Harlequins

“Naw” said Mark Evans when asked “Will Quins go down?” last season. As it turned out, a relatively easy run-in (wins over Leeds and Bath) meant that they leapfrogged the hapless Sarries and finished ninth. Bravo! Er, no, actually. Let’s be honest and say that Quins were fourth from last, rather than ninth from the top. Terribly inconsistent, lousy on the road and despite famous one-off wins in the Cup over the past couple of years, still trying in vain to shake of the “cup specialists” tag. Incidentally, when DID Quins last win the Cup? I can’t remember. New recruits have arrived, along with Welsh coaching wizard Paul Turner who, so they hope, will pep up the back line which, - on paper at least - looks pretty good. Up front, despite the handling of Diprose, the guile of Leonard and the sheer in-your-face presence of Keith Wood, they haven’t performed as a unit of late. They’ll have to, or it will be another year trying to avoid the drop. A final position similar or worse than last year is where I expect them to finish.

Leeds Tykes

Due to some, er, problem down the road at Rotherham, the Tykes survived the drop last year. But unlike their Yorkshire neighbours, relegated the year before, they took some notable scalps at Headingley and were in with a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon right up until the last couple of games. But what chances this year? More of the same, I’m afraid. The element of surprise they had on their side last year will have gone and those teams that came unstuck against the Tykes last year will have had plenty of time to sort themselves out. I believe they’ll end up somewhere between ninth and twelfth.

Leicester Tigers

Can they be beaten? Bristol think so, but one-off games in competitions the Tigs don’t care for (Powergen and Zurich Championship, it seems) count for little over 22 games. Once again this lot will be the team to knock off the top. Decidedly quiet in the transfer market, once again implying there is stability at Welford Road, Tigers will go into the season treating it like business as usual. With questions still being asked about the pivotal no10 position, they could be surprised early doors just like they were last year. Ultimately, over the long season, they’ve always come good and will take some stopping. Gloucester have the grunt and now the talent to do this, but I think Tigers’ wily ways will keep them at the top. For one more season, at least.

London Irish

I drove past Sunbury the other day. The victory party for the Powergen Cup win was still going on, as far as I can see. Hopefully they’ll be fine come 31 August. Prospects? Well, their Heineken Cup baptism may come as a bit of a shock after a long time in the second-tier European competition. Bejaysis, it’s tough in the HC. So I think they’ll struggle there, but the league could well provide them with another crack at the big one in 2003/04. Top half is not beyond them, but the confidence in the club could well be dented if they have a bad time in Europe. I’ll stick my neck out and say they’ll fail to make that top half position. But only just.

Newcastle Falcons

Infamous last season for their Director of Rugby’s shenanigans and pretty ineffective on the field, Newcastle managed to be, well, ordinary. Despite Kingston Park being a place that almost guarantees wins for this side, their away form and form without Jonny Wilkinson hasn’t been great. A lot of the Scottish contingent has fled north of the Border, leaving not a lot in reserve. Epi Taione seems to have acquired a Craig Quinnel-like taste for Peter Thomas’s products over the summer so I expect he’ll be somewhere in the forwards this coming season. And despite having a wealth of young talent behind the scrum, their pack isn’t up to much as far as I can see. No ball=no wins, so bottom four methinks.

Northampton Saints

I have a nickname for Wayne Smith. Jump lead. I mean, before he arrived at Franklin’s Gardens, Saints were dead flat and going absolutely nowhere. After taking stock and looking for his side’s strengths, Smith got them playing to them and they charged up the table to finish a credible fifth. Not bad. For the new season, they’ve recruited a few decent players, mainly behind the scrum where they lacked width for an awful long time last year. Up front there are no problems and should Jar Jar Binks and Larry Grayson - still going strong – click as they have in the past, it could be a fruitful year for them. A tough European group featuring French champions Biarritz may see their participation go no further than early January, but if that’s the case, the Saints could scare Tigers and Glaws. Top four definitely, higher, of course, if they can beat the very best.

Sale Sharks

THE revelation last year, the boys from pie country had a lot of “glamour” clubs weeping into their beer. Jason Robinson’s effervescence rubbed off on the whole squad and they just didn’t know when it was time to call time! Winning the shield and coming second in the Zurich was way, way beyond the expectations of twelve months ago: relegation struggle and nowhere in Europe. So, will the fish be just as big in the larger, more predatory Heineken Cup pool AND still be able to do the business in the league? No. Like the other Heineken debutants, they’ll find the premier competition a bit different from the Shield and half a dozen extra games took their toll on last season’s participants. Just ask Quins, Newcastle, Wasps and Saints. The Americans have a term called “sophomore blues”; second year mediocrity. I think they’ll be singing them come next may. No progress beyond the HC groups and mid-table mediocrity in the Zurich.

Saracens

Oh dear. Tenth place. Tantrums. Turmoil. Tears. And total humiliation for one of the most “progressive” clubs in the league. To top it all off, last year was the club’s 125th anniversary season. This year dawns with a new-look, leaner and more hungry side. Gone are the politics of the previous regime and in their place comes a meritocracy under the leadership of Buck Shelford. No players, not even the current internationals, are guaranteed a starting place, according to the Kiwi. So Sarries start with a clean slate, a much changed squad and expectations of easily improving on last year’s dismal performances. There is talk in the camp of a top six challenge and I wouldn’t put it beyond them. But they’ll need to start the season well, or that suspect confidence so evident last year, could well see them struggle. Top half, then, but it’ll depend on how quickly they get out of the blocks.

Wasps

Another team to rally during the second half of last season after the arrival of a New Zealander whose previous job was in charge of a national side. Former Ireland boss Warren Gatland, with a little help from Shaun Edwards, turned around a rudderless side into what looked like a good bet for a title challenge. That rudder, aka Lawrence Dallaglio, should be fit for the start of the season and it’s his presence that makes this lot tick. Rob Howley’s arrival means there is some real quality at half back now and the back three is one of the quickest around. If Wasps get the ball to them there could be trouble for their opponents. With a new ground and a new outlook thanks to Gatland and Edwards, they could be in the top third of the table come the end of the season, especially as they are not taking part in the Heineken this year. Not having those six extra hard games will make all the difference.


Sum-up:

Predicting the teams in 1-12 order is just asking for trouble, so I’ll group them in fours, based on my observations above – once again in alphabetical order.

Champions: Leicester

Top four:

Gloucester, Leicester, Northampton, Wasps.

Middle four:

Bristol, London Irish, Sale, Saracens

Bottom four:

Bath, Harlequins, Leeds, Newcastle