By Innings
July 19 2021

It seems to be a generally held view that selection for the first test match of this Lions’ series offers more opportunity for debate than has been the case in any recent tours. 

There can be argument about whether this is because the squad is supplied with outstanding class in every position, or whether this is a group of players who do not suffer from tall poppy syndrome, because there are no tall poppies.  As things are, we shall perhaps get a better idea at the weekend, when a genuinely class side, the world champions, take on the side chosen to represent the British & Irish Lions.  From the perspective of a stadium on a hill in London NW4, this selection conundrum looms larger than anywhere else, because Saracens has more players in the Lions squad than any other club or province in the British Isles, and every one of them has test-match experience at Lions level.  It would be interesting to have taken a poll, based only on the actual number selected for the match-day 23. Will it be five, or a number less than five? Or will Vincent Koch provide the only Sarries interest on the day?

The only way to come up with answers is to read the mind of Warren Gatland, the man whose signature will confirm the team on the day.  As we do not have that luxury, we can only look at five individual players and try to work out the probabilities of each being selected.

Begin with Mako.  Proven at test level, perhaps the most skilled prop, ball in hand, in the world.  He has running, passing, line-break ability, ball retention in the tackle, the package is all there.  He has been called out for less than perfect scrummaging techniques, and high penalty counts, but perhaps that has become less of an issue in more recent seasons.  So, why not just put his name on the sheet and be done with it?  The problem is reading the fact that whilst Mako has appeared on the team sheet for every game except one, he has just one start to show for it.  Do the coaches feel confident that Mako has proven himself and can be held back now while his pretenders battle out the claims for the finishing role?  Or is he the one who has most to demonstrate, and has yet to stake his definitive clai? 

On the face of it, Jamie has been there, done it all, and would normally be a banker to start as hooker. However, nobody can ignore the pressure for the starting jersey being exerted by Luke-Cowan-Dickie.  Each offers so much, and Ken Owens would have expected to be in the mix in normal circumstances, but the two English players seem to have the nominations in the bag.  Against the South Africans many would be inclined to start with the Exeter player and bring on Jamie later on, as the player better able of the two to exploit a tiring defence.  Tough on Ken, who has contended well, but I think that he faces the rare fact that he is a high-class player contending with world-class ones.  My own view is that Jamie is actually likely to start.

Maro is a nightmare, and if you’d not listen to me, ask any player in the world to name their least favourite opposition player.  Not one player carries the skill set, relentless energy and bloody-minded determination that Maro brings to every minute of every game.  If it were not for his too-frequent failures of discipline during the last 6 Nations, I think he would have been firmly in contention to captain this tour, and as it is I see him as a first name on the team-sheet.  My only hesitation is whether he will keep out Henderson at lock or Beirne at 6.  I shall not be surprised if Gatland does choose a lock at 6, and Beirne, more obviously a lock than 6, has looked very comfortable in that role on this tour.  It is possible for Gatland to select all three players, relying on Maro to start in one position and finish in the other.

Faz comes next, and he is in similar territory.  Will he be a 10, a 12, or both in the same game?  Is Biggar ahead for the 10 Jersey, and is Smith a bench possibility?  Could Owen start at 12 with Smith at 10 and Biggar on the bench?  Who is front-runner for 12, and would Owen be that player regardless of his 10 credentials?  My heart tells me that Owen will be 12, moving to 10 when the coaches want a damaging runner like Bundee Aki at 12 in the later stages.  My head tells me that Owen is likely to be on the bench, covering 10 and 12.

Outside centre and Eliot, the fifth and final Sarries question.  Certainly he has strong claims, he covers three positions and delivers international standard in all three.  His kicking game is better than that offered by any other claimants, and gives him a slight edge.  But the permutations are endless when you think of Anthony Watson and Liam Williams, equally at home in all three positions and both playing really well, and Stuart Hogg.  If two of this quartet are starters, and one is on the bench, the fourth will be really unlucky.  Simply because he is a single-position player, Hogg could be the unlucky one, with Watson at 15, Daly at 13 and Liam on the bench.  

It is as easy to make a case for any to start as to make a case for any not to start.  However, the strongest claim to start has to be Maro’s, with Jamie’s a close second and for me the strongest case for a bench role is Mako’s, with Owen’s a close second. Owen offers the utmost in dragging the best out of those around him, and I think he will either start as 12 or come off the bench.  Eliot is the most likely to miss the cut this time, the competition for the 13 / 15 axis is simply the one where any one of four players can compete, and has proven to compete, at the very pinnacle of world rugby.

Overall, therefore, my contribution to the poll of total number in the 23 would be to settle on four, but for game-starters, I would come down to two, Maro and Jamie.  My mind says that this suggestion could have all five players round the wrong way, my starters not starting, my bench players starting, and Eliot, my miss-out player starting or finishing.  That is why I pay to sit and spectate whilst others are paid to coach and select.  

Our sixth player with an interest is Vincent Koch.  It seems that the SA coaches do not see him as a starter, but value highly his finishing contribution as a member of the Bomb Squad, that tightly-knit group who proved to England in the RWC final that rugby really is a 23-man game at this level.  I expect to see his name on the team sheet in that role again.   

I cannot try to predict the winning margin of this game, nor which team will have the advantage.  Both sides have more to offer than we have seen, both have looked under-prepared, and both will be desperate for the opening honours, the priceless advantage in a three-game series.  One wayward tackle, one dangerous clear-out, one moment of ill-discipline could be the decider, and everyone must hope that this will not be the deciding factor.  Equally. Both sides have players capable of a moment of game-changing brilliance, and both have the core of players who are always there, always committed and who provide the platforms for all that excited the commentators.  Lions tours, don’t you just love them?