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No Time Toulouse (get it !!!!)

With Pool encounters, it's tempting to have a look at where the points are most likely to come from to get to the magic 20 total, so here goes. As with last season, the Pool 1 consists of three reasonably-matched sides, and one which is not tipped to do well, but could still have a role to play in the destination of the pool. Sarries begin as slight favourites, just ahead of Toulouse and Ulster, whilst Oyannax are seen as 50/1 to win the pool. Clearly, they represent an unknown quantity, and, in turn, are new to top flight European competition, and whilst it may be a  surprise to see them as such distant outsiders, they are second from bottom of the Top14 with only two wins from eight games, and a porous defence.

 

It's a first European meeting for Saracens and Toulouse in two seasons, when the French side recorded two narrow wins, firstly at Wembley Stadium in October, and then in France in January, but both sides reached the Quarter Finals from a pool which also featured Connacht and Zebre. Sarries went on to beat Ulster in the Quarter Final at Ravenhill, ahead of the famous Twickenham semi-final win over Clermont Auvergne, whilst Toulouse were demolished 47-23 at Munster. With the Irish province in the pool too, there is no shortage of history between the sides, and all that entails, hopefully without a fussy hashtag.

 

A cliche maybe, but each side will look to win their home games, and see whether they can get a decisive win on the road. Toulouse trailed off considerably last season, missing out entirely on the last final eight spot, to Saracens, as they were undone on their own patch by a resurgent Bath side, and then lost at Montpellier. At the moment, though, they find themselves in second spot in the table, and have returned to being the tough proposition of previous campaigns. Ulster have become poor travellers of late, and made little impact in the competition last season, so would seem poorly placed to claim a key win in Toulouse. In contrast, it is conceivable that Ulster will win all three Ravenhill clashes, and claim victory at Oyannax, whilst Toulouse will probably beat Ulster in France and Oyannax, home and away, leaving the decisive matches as the pool openers and closers with Saracens. Indeed, it seems quite possible that Sarries, Ulster and Toulouse could all end up with four wins and two defeats. Even in pools with a side tipped to struggle, six straight defeats are relatively rare for the weaker sides, although this was the case for Sale last year, and, given their precarious position, Oyannax may have opted to prioritise the Top 14 already. 

 

So, all the more reason for a strong start in Saturday's NW4 opener. What has impressed with Saracens' season so far, apart from the results obviously, has been the adaptability to the very different challenges posed by four contrasting sides, and finding a way to win in all of them. Allied to a taste and aptitude for the big games which came to the fore to stunning effect last season, there is plenty to be optimistic about ahead of this massive match. Or as Google Translate has it on their interpretation of the official Toulouse website "with four wins in as many league games, they prance in the lead. Their success last weekend on the lawn of Northampton, after more than a rough encounter, proved that the London Training knew how to be successful in facing all kinds of opposition."  Indeed, and given the intensity of that game, there could have been no better match to prepare for this encounter, so changes to the line up will probably be fairly limited, with an intriguing contest in prospect at the breakdown. Again. Alex Goode should continue at full back, with Chris Ashton and Chris Wyles remaining on the wings, but a possible revision to the centre partnership to feature Marcelo Bosch and Brad Barritt, and Charlie Hodgson teaming up with Richard Wigglesworth in the half backs. Forwards-wise, the front row could see Mako Vunipola, Jamie George and Petrus du Plessis, with George Kruis continuing with Alistair Hargreaves at lock, wraopped up by a back row of Maro Itoje, Kelly Brown and Billy Vunipola.

 

Toulouse began the campaign with a 24-7 win over Brive in which all their points came in the first half, before a 20-9 win at Agen, and a thumping 37-20 home victory over Castres Olympique, although not with a bonus point. However, they fell to surprise defeats in low-scoring matches at newly promoted Pau and at Bordeaux-Begles, either side of a comfortable home triumph over La Rochelle. A 33-25 victory at Montpellier and 52-5 home success against Grenoble shows an attack which is really clicking. That line up saw club stalwart Maxime Medard at full back, with Vincent Clerc, now with more than 300 appearances, on the right wing, and Fijian Timoci Matanavou on the left, outside the long-serving centre partnership of Gael Fickou at 13 and Yann David at 12. Toby Flood was at fly half, with Sebastian Bezy at scrum half.Into the forwards, and Imanol Harinordoquy was at number 8, with the back row completed by Northampton-bound Louis Picamoles and Thierry Dusautoir. The second row featured Samoan Joe Tekori and Yoann Maestri, whilst the front row was made up of Dorian Aldgeheri, hooker Christopher Tolofua and Georgian Vasil Kakovin. Of note was that eleven of that starting XV were French-qualified.

 

Whilst not a gambler by any stretch, a look around the various odds beyond Pool 1 is particularly intriguing as to the received wisdom on which sides will meet in Lyon next May, and, yes, I've already got my tickets. Last season's finalists start as favourites, whilst Saracens are viewed as the third most likely to claim the ultimate club prize. Saracens are envisaged as pool winners, alongside Clermont Auvergne and Toulon, although intriguingly, the bookies can't decide between Northampton Saints and Racing Metro 92 as winners of Pool 4, whilst Munster and Toulouse are seen as the other two sides likeliest to qualify. Looking more closely at each pool. Pool 2 seems to be in the control of Clermont Auvergne, who have only struggled with the tag of favourites when they reach the knock-outs. Exeter Chiefs continue to improve in the Premiership, but have yet to make a sustained impact in Europe, and faced with the perenially underachieving Ospreys and play-off winners Bordeaux-Begles, who are in mid-table of the French league, they may not claim enough points for a best runners up place. Meanwhile, Pool 3 appears even tighter than Sarries' group. Misleadingly, given their excellent Pro12 form, Scarlets are cast as also-rans, and, though they have not qualified for the knock outs for quite some time, they tend to record some impressive Pool wins, not least four seasons ago, when they won at Franklins Gardens, where they travel for the opening match this time around. With reigning Pro12 champions Glasgow Warriors also in the mix, and Northampton misfiring, the envisaged straight shoot-out between Saints and Racing may be well wide of the mark. 

 

The fourth pool is one very much in the mould of Pool 1, with three potential winners, and an outsider, as Benetton Treviso represent Italy with a not so magnificent seven straight losses in the Pro12 league. Otherwise, there is not much between the sides. Stade Francais, despite being Top14 winners last time out, are marooned in the bottom four of the table, whilst Munster have ground out results on their way to second spot in Pro12, and Leicester Tigers have been equally workmanlike in the Aviva Premiership. In a pool which should yield two qualifiers, the December head to heads between Munster and Leicester, who are one of a select breed of sides to win in Limerick, appear decisive. However, given Toulon's stuttering form in the Top 14, and faced with a trio of sides each with something to prove, in Leinster, Wasps and Bath, this may not be as easy as previous season for the Cup holders, especially as the two Premiership representatives will look to continue their steep development curve on the European stage, and Bath look to set the record straight after a Quarter Final in Dublin last year which they really should have won. Sticking my neck out, I would predict the eight qualifiers as Saracens, Ulster, Clermont Auvergne, Racing Metro, Leicester Tigers, Munster, Toulon and Bath. (Shares of any winning bets should these all be correct will, of course, be gratefully received)

 

 

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