By Behindthebench
May 28 2015
Saracens vs Bath - The Aviva Premiership Final - Twickenham - Saturday 30 May 2015. Saracens will need another supreme defensive effort, not to mention a clinical attack, to add a second Premiership title, as the steep upward trajectory of Bath shows no sign of easing. Even more so than the Saints last season, it feels that Sarries will face a side looking to cap undoubted potential by winning something, so, putting mind games aside, it's genuinely hard to call a favourite as a street-wise Saracens side face a Bath side in strong form, and, as Sarries have said many times themselves, something to prove.
In an odd coincidence, just like last week against Northampton, there could be again up to 18 players from the England training squad on display at HQ, providing a fascinating subtext ahead of a miniature close season which will barely last two months before the friendlies start. There are lots of intriguing contests beyond the obvious Owen Farrell - George North one, Matt Banahan vs David Strettle and Maro Itoje vs Sam Burgess (depending where the latter plays) are just two more. Consequently, this match will be eagerly anticipated well beyond those with immediate club loyalties.
Backed by a committed and enthusiastic owner, which no doubt sounds familiar, this feels like the time when Bath need to deliver. At the heart of this is how they handle this implicit sense of expectation. For a club of such tradition, given that they won the Courage League six times in ten seasons between 1988 and 1997, the extent of their underachievement before Bruce Craig's arrival is underlined by the fact that this is Bath's first HQ final since 2005. This was when they lost the Powergen Cup final to Leeds, a year after they topped the Premiership table but lost out in the final to Wasps. In league terms, since the play-offs were introduced in 2003, after qualifying as regular season leaders in 2004, they didn't qualify again until 2008, then losing three successive semi-finals. That was it until they lost out on the last day of the 2014 campaign to Quins, making reaching only their second Premiership final all the more impressive this time around. They have done better in Europe, as the first English club to claim the Heineken Cup in 1998, though, reaching the then Parker Pen Final in 2003 when they lost to Wasps at Reading, and were then defeated by Clermont Auvergne four years later at The Stoop. Bath won the competition in 2008 as they defeated Worcester at Kingsholm but lost out to Northampton in last season's final at Cardiff Arms Park.
On their day, there is no doubt that Bath are the most powerful and threatening side in the competition, given that the strength of their pack provides a crucial platform for their exciting backline to flourish. One remaining question which was decisively answered by the stunning 47-10 semi-final demolition of Leicester Tigers was their ability to handle big games. It was a stark contrast to the frustrating European Quarter Final against Leinster in the Aviva Stadium where they were much the better side (I went to see this as a warm up for Sarries match at Racing Metro), but poor accuracy allowed the Irish province to snatch a narrow win they scarcely deserved. However, the West Country side had recovered superbly to claim the last eight spot in the first place, having lost their first two pool matches, but roared back with a double over Montpellier, and a classic win in Toulouse before coming out on top in a nervous encounter against Glasgow Warriors at the Rec. The league campaign has seen them beat the sides they would be expected to beat, with only a solitary defeat at home to Northampton (who completed the double over them), whilst the remaining four defeats came at Wasps, Saracens, Leicester and Exeter, i.e they didn't lose to anyone outside the top six, and claimed a historic 45-0 home win over Leicester early in the campaign.
Significantly, Bath fielded largely the same side in the crucial Harlequins away fixture, which saw home advantage secured with a match to spare, as in the subsequent Gloucester home match and against the Tigers. And, unlike other sides who opted for more changes, they have got stronger and stronger, though I don't think anyone is expecting them to be pushing the 50 point mark this time. Reportedly, former Sarries coach Mike Ford has the luxury of a fully-fit squad. Hence the starting line up should see Anthony Watson at full back, with Semesa Rokoduguni and Matt Banahan occupying the wings outside an exciting centre partnership of Jonathan Joseph and Kyle Eastmond. George Ford and Peter Stringer, who is moving to Sale next season, should fill the half back slots. Into the forwards, and the front row should feature Paul James, hooker Ross Batty and David Wilson. In the second row, Stuart Hooper should team up with Dave Attwood, whilst the back row looks likely to consist of Sam Burgess, Francois Louw and Leroy Houston.
Saracens look likely to opt for continuity too. Alex Goode is an absolutely must at full back, as Saracens will need to counter quickly from any broken-down Bath moves, whilst Chris Ashton and David Strettle should be in tandem on the wings, and, given the rumours of a move away, will be even more determined to do well. With Brad Barritt absolutely imperative to the defensive effort, he seems likely to accompany "Mr Versatile" Chris Wyles in the centre, whilst Owen Farrell and Richard Wigglesworth should continue at half back. Into the forwards, and, given the final display at Northampton, an unchanged front row of Mako Vunipola, Jamie George and Petrus du Plessis could be in prospect, with George Kruis and Alistair Hargreaves remaining at lock, and the back row consisting of Maro Itoje, Jacques Burger (undoubtedly now back to his very best) and Billy Vunipola.
In the clashes between the sides this season, Bath won 21-11 at the Rec, consequently ending a string of five away wins for Saracens, as the hosts fashioned typically slick tries for Joseph and Eastmond, and Wyles replied for the visitors. Back at Allianz Park during the RBS 6 Nations in February, Sarries prevailed 34-24, as Bath staged a recovery from 21-3 at one point to narrow the gap to seven points, but, as they may need to do on Saturday, the home side closed out the match expertly, as the contest finished with three tries apiece: Wyles, George and Ashton for the hosts; two for Rokoduguni and one for Ollie Woodburn for the visitors.
Saracens will hope that Bath have peaked with last Saturday's display, but an even stiffer test for the Wolfpack appears assured this week.
