By T
November 29 2007

My personal memories of Saracens in Wales consist of a rainy weekend spent in a mouldy hut in a seaside holiday camp on my one and only Easter tour as part of the Saracens Mini's, and the first team going down to defeats to any Welsh side they came up against on crossing the Severn Bridge. So you'll forgive me if there is more than a hint of pessimism throughout this preview. First things first and it's probably best that you sit down to read the next line...  Saracens are actually on TV, on the BBC no less!   Fantastic news for those  who were planning on travelling but which found finding a hotel room in South West Wales this weekend as easy as finding a Premiership player to wear a Barbarians shirt.  This positivity is soon tempered with the realisation that we will have to sit through the BBC's presentation of Rugby.

 

The Universe is based on opposites to every ying there is a yang for every Greenwood there is a Barnes... except where the BBC are concerned.    You begin to feel a little sorry for John Inverdale as at least the rest of us can go and put the kettle/have another beer while Jeremy Guscott spends his entire screen time finding ways to pick holes in anything Andy Farrell does and Jonathan Davies says the same old things about "Attritional English Style Vs the Welsh Way" (for the uninitiated of you that means - playing Rugby cf lobbing the ball like a bunch of under 7's in a half time touch Rugby contest.)... it's probably best I don't get started on Jill's insights from the touchline.

 

Enough of my critique on the state of the BBC sports department and onto the game.  I'd like to use some nice clichés about ‘winner takes all' and ‘all or nothing' to describe this game but apparently Eddie Butler has stolen them all, besides it's not as easy as that anyway. There are a couple of confusing permutations that could see Saracens lose yet still qualify;  basically Saracens need to avoid taking 4 or 5 fewer  match points than Llanelli to go through:

 

• Any Sarries Win or draw = Sarries go through

 

• Llanelli score 4 tries and win + Sarries lose but get 4 try bonus + losing bonus = Sarries go through

 

• Llanelli score 4 tries and win + Sarries lose but get 1 bonus = Llanelli go through

 

• Llanelli win +  Sarries bonus point = Sarries go through

 

• Llanelli win + Sarries fail to take a bonus = Llanelli go through

 

• Aliens abduct both sets of players = er... not really sure. 

 

 

With all that in mind it really only matters to us at the final whistle as no side goes to a game targeting losing bonus points to progress and you can guarantee that both sides will be aiming to win. Who ever goes through from the group they're through to the Semis and a game away from a possible HC place (in Saracens case) and more televised rugby!

 

The Gaffer gave a hint of what to expect team wise this week by resting a few key players against London Irish.  Yates, Johnston, Jackson, Farrell & Hill will all have benefited from a bit of a break last week and are all likely to return to the starting line up.

 

Both sides like to play open attractive rugby the game could well be won and lost at the breakdown, the impressive trio of Popham, Easterby & Thomas are likely to scrounge for every ball on the ground and will be a major source of annoyance. Saracens no doubt buoyed from giving 136 penalties at the breakdown against Irish yet still winning should be warned that Stephen Jones won't be half as generous with the boot, while any napping and Peel will have quite simply tapped and gone!

 

Having easily despatched Leeds at home, Llanelli found the going much tougher against Wasps in the recent HC game; Wasps rush defence caused havoc, while the attacking inside popped ball worked time after time.  Cipriani, Walters and Flutey ran riot in the Scarlets midfield with only the outstanding Regan King attempting to hold them back.  The one bright point in defeat was the Scarlets lineout working so well that Polish builders would have cast an envious glance at how easy the supposed hard graft was looking.  It could well be another area in which Saracens are targeted and it will be doubly interesting to see if Fullerton starts or maybe if the newly arrived Chris Jack will squeeze onto the bench as cover and a chance for a run out in the no doubt rainy conditions (it always rains in Wales).

 

So that's it really, time to settle down and look forward to the game on Saturday with a few beers... and the volume set to mute.