By Chris Chaplin
March 30 2005

This Saturday the Leinster Lions will host Leicester Tigers to establish just who will be kings of their particular part of the European jungle for this season.
The Irish go into the fixture as firm favourites and it remains to be seen if Tigers legendary ability to rise to the big HEC occasion can cause an upset at Lansdowne Road.

The Irish province’s season has, to all intents and purposes, now been concluded with Ospreys crowned champions of the Celtic League and Leinster currently in third place after a close fought 31 – 25 victory over Llanelli in their Scarlet persona. Leinster also know, due to the squinted qualification criteria system for the senior European competition, that their place in 2005/6 is assured so they can concentrate on the business at hand.

Tigers also know that they too have qualified for next season’s HEC but still have considerable fish to fry in the domestic league where a twelve point lead at the top of the Zurich Premiership has dwindled to just four, due to poor performances against Northampton Saints, where the side fielded, albeit in a depleted state due to the nonsensical playing of league fixtures during the Six Nations, was capable of beating Saints, who at that time were in poor shape and then most recently in a scruffy, imprecise and indisciplined showing against the current table proppers, Leeds Tykes.

With Wasps playing Worcester and Saracens at home, which looks like at least nine points for them, the match at Welford Road on 30th April will, barring catastrophes for either side, probably be the decider for the league championship with the loser having to play the third placed side at home to qualify for the playoff cup.

Meanwhile before all that Leinster go into Saturday’s confrontation in front of a likely sold out Lansdowne Road and on the back of a couple of tidy victories over the last week or so with a number of their contingent fresh from a useful Six Nations campaign.

In contrast Tigers have had a patchy period in the European and domestic competitions and a significant number of their combatants lately returned from the less than happy camp that the England set up provides in these uncertain and confused times for the national side.

It is a truism that games of rugby union are usually won by the pack and that the backs decide by how many points the victory is secured and Tigers must hope that this holds true next weekend as it is in the scrum at least that they must hope for salvation.

While it is to be hoped that injury victims Ben Kay and Graham Rowntree are restored to fitness to enable coach John Wells to select what must be his best starting 22, in truth the presence of Darren Morris and Louis Deacon in the tight should not really be a major draw back however where the two vastly experienced England forwards would be missed is for their contribution in the loose where Rowntree and Kay can punch holes in the enemy’s redoubts such as Nelson would have been proud of at Trafalgar.

Leinster’s front row is not in the first flush of youth and this is likely their last chance for European glory but it is a cohesive unit with their efforts being led by Shane “Mullett” Byrne who had to wait so long in Keith Wood’s shadow for international honours it’s a wonder his shaggy mane did not fall out for lack of sunlight but since the bald one’s retirement Byrne has shown what he can do and it’s worthy of note that he was the top try scorer in the 2004 Six Nations, not bad for a donkey!! His throwing is pretty much faultless and he’s a real danger man at his peak. Ably assisted by Emmett Byrne when fit, as I believe is the case at present after a year on the sidelines with neck and shoulder problems, here is another Irish international with nine full caps to his name.

The real battle will be between the estimable Reggie Corrigan who, with 44 caps for his country, is a real professional and likely to give fit again Julian White a run for his money and it is to be hoped that the training inflicted injury sustained by White clears up. John Wells is clearly getting into the Team England method of injuring the key players while in training!!!

However I still see the scrum as an area where Tigers can gain a distinct edge supported as it will be by Martin Johnson and Deacon in the engine room with Moody, Corry and Back likely to benefit from some decent stable ball.

The line out may well be another story though with Tigers’ set piece reduced to something of a shambles by Leeds’ Palmer and Hooper and with the wonderful Malcolm O’Kelly, now Ireland’s most capped player and ball stealer par excellence, in cahoots with young Blackrock College lock Leo Cullen, recipient himself of 15 full caps, things are hardly likely to get any easier for the Tigers’ partnership. It’s true that Martin Corry adds a real extra dimension to the Tigers set piece presence but with Eric Miller and veteran Victor Costello in attendance Tigers will have to be inch perfect and recent performances give me cause for concern in what was hitherto a pretty much impregnable part of the Tigers bastion.

In the loose matters remain no less challenging with the cry, when in dire straits, of “give it to Victor” likely to be heard as either he or erstwhile Welford Road favourite Eric Miller, now capped almost 50 times for his country, take the ball up.

The relative performances of the respective back rows are likely to be comparable with little but the proverbial fag paper to choose between them.

In terms of carrying the ball there is certainly nothing to choose between the two trios and Neil Back will need to be at his very peak if he is to win the battle on the floor with the Australian educated Keith Gleeson, who is my personal choice in the 7 shirt for this Summer’s British and Irish Lions.

Overall then I expect to see Tigers gain an edge in the scrum with this balanced by the more plentiful line out set piece likely to go the way of the Irishmen.

In the loose honours are probably likely to be even unless somebody has a nightmare and as ever discipline (are you listening Mr Moody?) will have to be of the highest order if there is not to be another proliferation of costly penalties against Tigers especially as Joel Jutge officiates.

Behind the pack I expect Irish International scrum half Guy Easterby to be preferred to the less experienced Cork Constitution Scrum Half Brian O’Meara and that he’ll have a torrid contest with young Harry Ellis, who does not seemed to have greatly benefited from his team England experience and will also need to revisit his discipline cupboard and harness his inherent feistiness into controlled aggression. If only because I expect better set piece scrum possession I think the newly capped Englishman to just get the better of things, but he must get the ball out faster than he has been doing of late for either his club or his country.

Ex Wellington Hurricane David Holwell has vied with Argentinian international Felipe Contempomi, well known to Tigers’ supporters from his exploits at Bristol, for the 10 shirt and it seems that if Easterby is indeed preferred to O’Meara, who has a real Golden Boot, then the Argentinian international will partner him to carry out the kicking duties however if the Cork man starts then the Kiwi will likely form the other part of the half back partnership, either will be a handful although Holwell is perhaps the more creative.

Speaking of Golden Boots I trust that Andy Goode will ignore those Tigers’ supporters with very short memories of the many matches the young fly-half has won for Tigers when unfairly singling him out for causing the loss against Leeds, as compared to those who knocked the ball on, gave away penalties and so on. I don’t for minute believe that the paltry few unsporting Leeds supporters who booed and barracked him when he was taking the final penalty, and who incidentally do not deserve their courageous team or premiership survival, had much effect on Goode, he just missed, just as does the beatified Jonny Wilkinson now and then.

Goode has proved himself to me this term, of more concern was the awful performance from the usually 100% reliable Daryl Gibson who had a terrible afternoon that he’ll want to forget so that he can concentrate on dealing with the magnificent Gordon D’Arcy, the Lansdowne FC player having been nominated as IRB player of the year in 2004 after Matt Williams, now the Scotland coach, resurrected his international career during his watch at Leinster.

We were denied sight of D’Arcy in the Six Nations and if he’s not yet fit then the uncapped youngster from St Mary’s College, Kieran Lewis, is likely to start against whom Gibson should have an easier time but unless our resident All Black crowd pleaser is back to his very best then the Irish could get behind the Tigers’ defence and release Brian O’Driscoll, which would be curtains for the English side.

This neatly brings us to the outside centre slot where at last the under used and ignored by Andy Robinson, Ollie Smith, will finally get his chance to measure himself against the very best number 13 in the world.

I have to admit to being at a loss when Smith was substituted rather than Gibson last Sunday especially as it saw the move of Lloyd out of position to that less happy hunting ground of centre.

I think that in style Smith and O’Driscoll are very similar with the only difference in truth being the Irishman’s experience and although defensively Smith may even have the edge, it’s O’Driscoll’s vision that is so extraordinary with his ability to be largely invisible working behind the scenes organising his team and then suddenly produce a moment of sheer match winning brilliance. Gibson’s job will be stop him getting the ball and Smith’s to stop him if his colleague fails in his task!

In the back three Leinster could have Dennis Hickie, Shane Horgan and Girvan Dempsey while Tigers will apparently field Vesty, Lloyd and Murphy.

With Hickie’s international career back on track he is looking to be back to his dangerous best with the St Mary’s College man devastating in broken play and the perfect foil to his straight running opposite number Shane Horgan who’s one of those new big modern strong wingers combining bulk with pace.

Tigers have a similarly endowed winger in Leon Lloyd who this season has looked a class act on the wide outside although less so when forced into the centre when his often suspect handling and vision is exposed but on the wing there are few better on his day.

On the other flank should really be the magician, Mr Healey, not a big lad by today’s standards and certainly he has lost some pace but he is now a vastly experienced and visionary player who could, like O’Driscoll, produce that spark of brilliance that wins his team the match. However Murphy moves to wing and at least sees the wonderful Geordan able to produce a game-plan that is not so familiar to his countrymen as is that from fullback where Vesty starts and of course is consistent with the apparent policy of playing players out of position whenever possible.

This is a massive call by Wells and Howard and whether Vesty, fine season that he has had, will be able to cope with the scintillating Leinster backs is a question still to be answered.

Personally I’d have played our world class full back in the position where he feels comfortable and has proven himself able to inflict the biggest variation in play and damage to the opposition.

Girvan Dempsey for his part will be anxious to show Eddie O’Sullivan what a mistake he made in preferring Geordan Murphy for the Shamrock shirt. Indeed Dempsey can look the more reliable as the last line of defence but what he does not have is Murphy’s ability to turn the game in the blink of an eye.

Behind the scrum, if the sum of the constituent parts is taken, then I don’t really see that there’s much to choose although Leinster do have the individual edge and Tigers must under no circumstances kick aimless ball to them for if they do they will be sorely punished.

What is certain is that if Tigers turn up at Lansdowne Road with the same mind set, lack of motivation and game plan, if indeed there was one, as they did at the two Biarritz games as well as those away at Leeds and Northampton then they’ll lose and by some margin.

The two Biarritz matches give me special concern and I worry as to the reason why, after the magnificent obliteration of Wasps, they played so abjectly when they were sorely exposed by the classy back play of the French side. There has also been an alarming tendency of late to yield points early on and have to play catch up rugby to survive and usually prevail.

I had hoped to be able to write this first preview of 2005 in a more positive frame of mind but while, if they find their form of earlier in the season, they can certainly spring a surprise over a Leinster side who have themselves had a somewhat lacklustre Celtic season as well as a peculiar HEC pool with Bourgoin deciding not to play.

I’ve bought my tickets for Murrayfield so hope that Tigers do their stuff and progress to the semis but I fear that I may yet be watching two French teams in Edinburgh in the latter part of May.