By Chris Chaplin
December 2 2004

Bush regained control of The White House by frightening the natives; Blair is now trying to do the same to hold on to No.10. I wonder if a similar tactic is being used by Tigers Board on their sceptical supporters in pursuit of the objective of making the move to The Walkers Stadium more palatable.
Not withstanding the other question marks over fixtures, standing, branding, atmosphere and so on, which may or may not be resolved I was interested to read the excellent piece by BrianC on the London Irish site on the subject of attendance numbers which followed his in depth series Whither Rugby and I acknowledge all the data amassed by BrianC which I have shamelessly used in writing this piece.

I will buy him a Guinness when we next play our pals in the Shamrock. I have read Brian’s excellent original articles again which are as well researched and founded as his latest article.

Attendance Growth
Between 1997 and the end of last season all the Premiership teams enjoyed growth save for Sarries who actually saw their attendances fall by 3%.

London Irish enjoyed the greatest advance in those watching them play with crowds growing by 19.8% and reaching an average of 10657 in the 2003/4 season although the average attendance this term so far has fallen to 8745, a reduction of 18%.

Average attendances have risen at Bath, by 8.6% over the years covered and have continued to grow with average attendances showing a consistent 8.6% growth between those achieved in 03/04 and in the first half of 04/05.

At Gloucester, where the new stand was built on the site of the old Worcester Road terrace in the close season, average attendance grew by 19.4% over that achieved in 2003/4.

At Quins, where again there is more accommodation, average attendances over those in 2003/4 are up by 32% in spite of a poor start to the season.

At Leeds average attendances have also fallen back by 1.7% from an already low average of just 4198 last season.

At Falcons and Saints average attendances are static.

Sale, boosted by a good start to the season have increased attendances in the first half of the season from the average in 03/04 of 6984 to 7608 for the first eleven rounds of the ZP a growth of 14.3%.

Sarries continue to suffer from falling average attendances with last season’s average of 7234 falling back to 6977.

Wasps, with a full trophy cabinet, while enjoying 5.7% growth in attendances between 97/98 and 03/04 have seen their average attendances grow by 21% thus far this term.

Tigers, between 97/98 and 03/04 saw average attendance grow by 4.2%. In 2003/4 the average attendance was 16120 and has grown to 16759 in the first half of this season, an advance of 4% and consistent with that achieved since 1997/8.

Admittedly this may, of late, have been constrained by the overall capacity of the ground.

Overall average attendances have grown markedly between the first half of the 03/04 season and the first half of the 04/05 season but this is, I believe, distorted by the first half of the 03/04 season being “blighted” by the absence of so many players at the World Cup and indeed the World Cup itself as well as some generally awful rugby being played. The overall for the year is more instructive as in the second half of the season attendances were boosted by the post World Cup euphoria and the return of the players.

Reasons For Growth

London Irish certainly benefited from their move from Sunbury to the Madjeski but the latest figures may indicate that unless they start to produce the goods on the pitch growth may have peaked.

Bath continue to grow their crowds in a controlled manner with strong core support.

Gloucester have boosted attendances with a run of good seasons and the modest new BuildBase stand.

Quins have released additional capacity while retaining their core at The Stoop and in spite of a poor start to the season have enjoyed the greatest increase in demand.

Leeds have plenty of room but have low core support and seem unable to grow that support regardless of how well they do

Falcons now have more capacity but after strong growth it seems to have now reached a plateau.

Saints in spite of a poor start to the current season have maintained their average with their strong core.

Sale have increased attendances to 72% of the capacity of Edgeley Park and with average attendances of 7608 the support is growing as does the Sharks’ success and appeal.

Saracens continue to have the most unstable support with average attendance still headed downward, enabling them to fill just 35% of the available capacity at Vicarage Road.

Wasps’ success on the field has translated into increases in average attendance with the first half of the season seeing them achieving an average 93% occupancy rate at The Causeway Stadium.

It certainly seems then that there are three issues:
1 Core Support (measured by Season Tickets Sold)
2 Success on the field.
3 And in Tigers’ case ground capacity.


The Threat

The over riding reason for the move to the Walkers Stadium is said to be that it makes good business sense because otherwise while Tigers attendances will continue to be constrained by the relatively modest gains of developing first the Members Stand and thereafter The Crumbie, other clubs, which are not similarly constrained will grow their attendances and overtake Tigers.

But is that really likely and what is the real potential for crowd growth at Tigers or is it a scare tactic as the Panto season approaches with cries of “Look Behind You”

We don’t know how many people want to watch Tigers on a regular basis and are turned away. It could be argued that there are Season Tickets and now Half Season Tickets for sale if they are really keen.

Of those teams who are relatively unconstrained by stadium size; London Irish, Leeds and Sarries, which of those are likely to grow their crowds from their current average levels of 8745, 4125 and 6977 respectively to either fill their stadia, which have respective capacities of 24,105, 21,000 and 20,000, or overtake Tigers average of almost 17,000.

London Irish seemed to have the best chance when growth was running at almost 20% on the long average but the shorter measure shows crowd numbers in reverse.

Leeds do not have the core support to do so and even when Sarries were at their zenith average attendances were just over 9,000.

Of those enjoying growth Gloucester have reached a new peak with further development very much on the back burner. Bath are constrained by The Rec. Quins could develop the The Stoop further but such development is unlikely to double capacity, which is what they would need to do. Sale are constrained by Edgeley Park’s capacity of 10541 and Wasps by The Causeway Stadium’s 10,000.

So even were Tigers to commit the apparently unforgivable sin of standing still off the pitch for another few years I would suggest that it so unlikely as to be capable of discounting that any other ZP team would be able to overtake attendances at Welford Road and were capacity to be modestly expanded within the Welford Road site then in this decade and probably the next the threat perceived by some, including the Board., would seem unlikely to manifest itself.

What then are the other arguments for the move?