By RtR on 18/2/2004
February 18 2004

Are you a betting man sir? Like a flutter now and then do we? Well, I might just have a little bet for you this weekend. Listen up, and listen good........ Bath are proudly at the top of the ZP, and have lost at home only once all
season, to Wasps. In the opening fixture of the season, they beat the Leeds
Tykes 44-32. The game was not as close as the scoreline suggests. Bath
trounced the Tykes, dismantled us up front, knocked holes in the Leeds
midfield defence and stormed to a deserved success. The Tykes played catch
up rugby for virtually the whole game. The Bath pack was big and mobile,
forwards carried the ball, rucked and mauled effectively, the half backs
played out a game plan accurately and efficiently, and the Tykes defence was
stretched to the point of rupture time and time again. Bath did the simple
things well. Leeds did not.

And that game seemed to set the tone of the season for the two sides. Bath
have continued to win regularly, whilst the Tykes have struggled, and lie in
the bottom four, with only one win in the last 7 games. What price then for
a Tykes win at the Rec this weekend? Surely even the most hopeful Tykes fan
couldn't hope for a result down there? Or can they? A dead cert Bath win,
surely?

Bath will be severely depleted by Six Nations call ups, injuries and
suspensions, and the list of missing players is extensive; Borthwick,
Balshaw, Maggs, Danielli, Grewcock, Barkley, Catt, Tindall, all missing.
Scrum half Wood will have trained with the England squad this week, further
disrupting their preparations. But its not all bad for Bath, with seasoned
campaigners like Duncan Bell, Rob Fidler and ex-Tyke Zac Feaunati, there is
plenty of power up front. England prospect Matt Stevens is also available,
and flanker Lipman is also getting good reviews. Bath were depleted by RWC
call ups at Headingley earlier in the year. However, this time, rumour on
the Bath message board is that they will be forced into fielding young
inexperienced players in many positions.

The Tykes will also be players down, but in our case only Regan, Popham and
Kerr will be on international duty. The gap in player class does not seem as
wide as the league positions suggest. Added to that, the Tykes can field
Palmer, Albanese, Snyman and Ross - who didn't feature at Headingley - and
the gap closes still further. The pack has looked more solid in recent games
and will need to compete against the Bath 8. This is the key area, if the
Tykes can gain parity here, the game could be close. The back division seems
more settled than in early season, when Phil Davies was still trying to find
his best options. The midfield defence is vastly improved, Christophers is
nicely settled at outside centre, Scarbrough is playing in his best position
on the wing, and Cardey has looked solid at full back recently.

So, if one looks to the form book, or the ZP table, its looks like an
odds-on victory for Bath, but your humble author is of the opinion that its
not as clear cut as it sounds. The two sides who take to the pitch this
weekend will have some siginificant differences from those seen at
Headingely, most notably ourselves. The Tykes will take heart from a fine
comeback victory at Newcastle last week, and will be a far tougher
proposition than on the first day of the season.

So, how about that bet? Want a dead cert? If you want
my opinion, keep your money in your pocket, this one is too hard to call.