By RtR 02/10/2002
October 2 2002

What have we learnt so far about the long season ahead? What are the issues that will make or break the new season over the winter months, and how will the table look when we emerge into the sunlight next may? Who will be the Lion kings, and who will be the sacrificial lambs of the ZP?

Inconsistency

The first cool winds of autumn are upon us, and we are now 5 games into the new season. The only thing that has been consistent about the season so far is its lack of consistency. After 4 weeks, some semblance of order appeared to be emerging in the ZP. Glaws sat proudly on top of the table, Bath and Bris languished at the bottom, and even the Tigs had appeared to shake off their ususal poor early season form. Surely Glaws would finally trounce Bath? Surely the Tigs would thrash lowly Bris? Surely the high flying Tykes would overcome a weakened Falcons?

The answers to these questions we all know, and therein lies the conundrum. The season has been riddled with inconsistency and unpredictability. Bookies throughout the land must be wondering what comes next. Consistency is the coaches buzz word, the magic nirvana that they all strive to reach. But for most coaches this year, it has been infuriatingly beyond their grasp. The 'C-factor' is the holy grail of the modern rugby coach.

The 'C-factor' appears to be rife throughout the ZP. Saracens have had a mix of storming wins and abject defeats. Sales have had good wins, but were overwhelmed by Glaws. Bristol beat the Tigs, but remain rooted to the bottom of the table. Saints have looked strong, but have suffered defeats. What is the cause of this malaise?

Competitive

The answer lies in the fact that the ZP is now more competitive than ever. Several of the big clubs found last seasons relegation dogfight terrifying, and have strengthened their backroom and playing staff accordingly. The playing ability of the ZP en masse is now more evenly spread, particularly as the Tigs appear not to be the dominant force that they have been over the last few seasons. Many sides are now very evenly matched.

The ultimate end point of this phenomenon is that the points difference between top and bottom will not be the gulf it has been over the last few years. And if the table is to be closer, every single point is like gold dust. The big issues of Heineken Cup qualification and relegation may well be decided on bonus points this year, so tries scored, and low margin losses, are also extremely important. For many clubs, the season may once again become driven by the fear of failure, with most clubs talking a good game, but secretly setting a first off target of 11th place in the ZP. At least the Tykes are honest about this approach.

How will this affect the game? In times of chaos, the first thing a club will do is to try and make their stadium a fortress, and win all their home games. It is likely that away victories will be at a premium this year. The equation is simple - to guarantee survival, home games are 4 point musts for every club. Even current leaders Glaws have been unconvincing away from home, scraping a win at Quins and only drawing with Bath.

Referees

The C-factor is also affecting the referees, with several wildly inconsistent performances already been seen this year. If the table is to be tight this year, then it is plausible that issues such as HC qualification and relegation could hinge on one or two poor refereeing decisions. Consistency should be the goal of the refs as well as coaches.

The C-factor will make this season just as exciting as last, may be even more so. The Tykes have a grasp of the situation already. Witness Mike Shelley's decision to go for the draw at home to Sale by handing the ball to BVS in the dying second for a kick at goal, instead of the possible victory by taking a tap penalty or scrum. This degree of awareness must be applauded.

Unpredictable

So this season is even more unpredictable than ever, and this has to be good for the game. The last thing rugby needs is a few superpowers sweeping the board year in year out. Whoever prevails and whoever is doomed to relegation, only one consistent fact is for sure. Its going to be a rollercoaster ride again.