So let’s have a look at where the points need to be won and what it means in terms of a finishing position.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. If any team in the GP proves this rule then look no further than Quins track record. Mark Evans famously put his foot in it when he relied on the team getting 37 points to avoid relegation in 2005 because in the history of the GP no-one had gone down having accumulated so many points. What happens? Quins end up with 38 points and say hello ND1.

Statistics also tells us that a team finishing with 63 points normally would end up 3^rd or 4^th and look forward to the GP play-offs. For the first time ever Quins finish on 63 points and end up 6^th last season!!!  

What are the targets for the coming season? The first has to be avoiding relegation and to feel comfortably safe now a team needs to reach 40 points (8 wins and 8 bonus points). 0708 was not typical because Leeds were so poor, along with the three teams immediately above them who all got less points than Quins in their relegation year. Leeds only managed 12 points and in hindsight we can now see that mathematically Quins were actually safe when they passed this total in early October last year after game number four when they beat Bristol and were second in the table with 15 points. However, this initial good form was followed by the big slump and at Christmas Quins had only gained 6 more GP points. A loss away to Wuzz at the very end of 2007 could have left the multi-coloured ones hovering dangerously over the drop zone. That finger chewing game was won and 2008 set new standards for the team and many younger squad members came of age.

The next targets are the key positions of 6^th for Heineken Cup qualification and 4^th for the play-offs. This section of the table is becoming increasingly competitive and last season was the tightest with the teams between 2 and 8 all with a chance of a top four finish at the death – Wasps eventually recovered from 8^th place to finish 2^nd in the final weeks while Sarries went in the opposite direction. The stats tell us that something on, or just over, 52 points will usually achieve the 6^th slot and a team with 62 points can prepare for a play-off birth. Tigers pipped Quins at the final game of the season and marched into the last four with 64 points.   

As Glawcester prove every year finishing top is meaningless but if you want to dream then the sort of points needed averages out at around 74 – which is exactly what the lads from Kingsholm got last April.

Quins have a more difficult first half to this coming season with 6 of the 11 games being away from the Stoop. The vagaries of the match selection process for the Premiership also pairs Quins against both Tigers and Wasps home and away in the first 11 matches, while easier home and away encounters against Sale and Newcastle only take place during the business end of the season. On top of this is the Northampton factor – they won’t finish bottom but how long will it take them to get up to speed and will they do better than Quins on their return to top tier rugby?

Does this give our Director of Rugby sleep nights? Not a bit of it – he tells us he doesn’t set targets and calmly gives post match interviews after a series of consecutive defeats saying that he is not worried about results only performances. Well the answer is that Deano has a roadmap for all the games across the season showing where the results are leading and the key games where wins or the odd bonus point is essential.

Set out below is a chart similar to the one the DOR has on a pin board at the back of his office down at Roehampton. You too can now predict, through think or thin, where the Quins are likely to end up next April as well as gain a greater insight into the spin Deano and Mark Evans put on interviews after both good and apparently bad results.

GP Roadmap Table 08/09:

Here’s looking forward to 22 wonderful rounds of GP madness !!!

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