By Worried of Whitton
January 19 2007

NEC Harlequins play their final European Challenge pool match this week against Connacht at The Stoop and there is an EARLY kick off time at 14.15pm on Saturday January 20th.

Pool 4 winners, Bath qualified for the quarter final stages with their fifth win, 24-36 away win in Galway last Friday, and their return leg against Montpellier is just a formality. Yet, Harlequins have kept their qualification hopes alive by a thrilling last minute try ensuring five points in their 27-37 win over Montpellier.

After five rounds of the competition the Pool 4 table from ERC looks like this;

Pos	Team	Pl	W	D	L	Try F	Try A	Try Diff	F	A	Pts Diff	TB	LB	Pts
1	Bath Rugby	5	5	0	0	14	7	7	122	89	33	1	0	21
2	NEC Harlequins	5	3	0	2	14	12	2	145	99	46	2	2	16
3	Connacht Rugby	5	1	0	4	14	12	2	109	124	-15	2	2	8
4	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	11	22	-11	99	163	-64	0	1	5

Hopes of reaching the knock out stages of this competition hang by the slenderest of threads, but it is still mathematically possible for Harlequins. There has been much discussion on the board regarding how we can qualify. My own research highlights five possible routes for Quins to reach the knock out stages, but please correct me if I’m wrong. In all the scenario’s presented, Harlequins have to win against Connacht and ensure that they score at least four tries in order to gain the valuable bonus point as Harlequins need to finish with 21 points to stand a chance of proceeding further in the competition.

Our first opportunity comes from Pool 2, with the Glasgow Warriors v Saracens match. Glasgow are currently in line for a runner up qualification but need to pick up just one point at home against to clinch it. As this match kicks off at 19.30 on Friday evening, the day before Harlequins home match, we will know the outcome long before our kick off. So on Friday night Quins supporters will be following the fortunes of Saracens.

Another opportunity lies in France, on Saturday afternoon, in Pool 3. Brive currently lead the Pool with 20 points are at home to Montauban. They have lost both home and away in the French league this season to Montauban, most recently at home 11-16 two weeks ago. In the ECC competition back in October, Brive beat Montauban by 26 – 13. To help Harlequins qualify we will need another away win from the visitors and for them to deny Brive a losing bonus point.

A further opportunity also lies in Pool 3 where Newcastle are away to Petrarca. The Italian club have lost all their matches in this competition, so a home win is unlikely, but the possibility is there. If, as expected, Newcastle win with a bonus point the two clubs will be equal on points but Newcastle have far better qualification credentials than Harlequins and will proceed. Therefore if Newcastle fail to score four tries and pick up the bonus point, then it will also allow Quins to proceed, although this is a much more remote, scenario.

Just to increase our match day tension the two Pool 3 matches kick off at 14.00, just 15 minutes ahead of Quins at 14.15. Those of us who waited for news from Montpellier last Friday night will be well prepared for the delay in receiving results from remotely located European clubs.

Finally in Pool 1 if either Newport Dragons or Bristol slip up and fail to collect one point from their last match, it could also allow Harlequins through. Again this is another remote possibility. Bristol are at home to Bucharest, whilst Newport travel to Bayonne, Dragons are also unlikely to falter, having won 50-3 at home in the first round of the competition.

Worcester are essentially out of the qualification equation, after their loss against Clermont Auvergne, They can only attain a maximum of 20 points, and as such have an even narrower opportunity to qualify than Quins.

So in a nutshell we have to hope that Harlequins score four tries and gain the bonus point and that either Glasgow, Brive, Newport or Bristol lose by greater than seven points, or Newcastle score no more than three tries. I hope that makes it clearer!  Oh how we rue those missed opportunities down at Bath just before Christmas. :o(  -  qualification would have been so much easier.

Connacht last visited the Stoop in the semi final first leg of this same competition nearly three years ago on April 11^th   2004 Quins won that encounter 31 – 22 in a thrilling match. Connacht will notice a number of changes since their last visit, most notably the Lexus Stand, and Harlequins have just 11 players from that starting 22 in the current squad. Interestingly a certain Mr. Keogh wore the No.9 jersey that day too, although he later moved to the centre in the second half.

In this competition, Connacht has only won one match, at home against Montpellier. In the Celtic League they are not having a particularly good season either. They currently lie in tenth place, one off the bottom, after playing twelve matches. Of these they have won just 3 matches drawn 1 and lost 8.  Quins must not be complacent of their opponents this week with the outside chance of progressing further a five point win is the target. As Gavin Duffy wrote in his “Mayo column” this week  “… Connacht are unable to qualify for the quarter-finals they will still be hoping to avenge their last minute defeat against us at the Sportsground back in October. They are playing some good rugby at the moment and can feel disappointed that they didn’t take more points from both Ulster and Munster over the Christmas period as well as finding themselves out of the Challenge Cup. Sometimes an animal can be more dangerous when wounded.”  

In their match against Bath there was a big improvement in the Connacht backline which enabled them to score three tries, and perhaps more importantly look to threaten the opposition every time the ball went wide. However, it was their defensive errors that proved costly in the end, allowing Bath to pile on the points. The forwards were excellent in the loose, but they struggled with their set pieces. A number of free kicks and penalties were conceded at the line outs and scrums While the Bath pack looked heavier than the Connacht, the home put up some strong opposition at times.

Looking forward to Saturday’s match Dean Richards was very positive and upbeat earlier this week.  “Although we will be confident going into the Connacht game, you can never be too confident. They are a good side, who have shocked a few teams in the Celtic League this season and but for a bit of luck, might have beaten us at their place earlier in the campaign. One thing is for sure, we are going to have to remain focused and take absolutely nothing for granted; we are in no doubt that this is going to be very tough. This is an important competition for us, as it sets us up nicely for a tough end to the season and we want to do well”. The best news was saved to last when he added, ”I'm happy to say the injury situation has improved somewhat, which is really important for us. As I said last week, we have a mammoth end-of-season in front of us where we have to play all of the top sides. While 30 points in the Premiership is an achievement for us given the start we made, there are plenty more still to play for. We're going to need all our resources.

On Thursday, Connacht announced a 22-man squad ahead Saturday’s match .The squad shows two changes to that which played Bath at the Sportsground last Friday with fit again duo Gavin Williams and Ryan Strudwick replacing Darren Yapp and David McGowan. The good news for Connacht is that their injury worries are starting to turn a corner. Of the eleven injured players last week, four have been passed fit for this weekend's match. 

Before the match, the Harlequins Supporters’ Association, Quinssa will be laying flowers on the plinth of Nick Duncombe’s statue, in the North West Corner of the ground, in honour of what would have been his 25^th birthday. A five point win on Saturday would be a fitting tribute to our great scrum half who was tragically taken away from us back in 2003.

  

Come on You Quins!