Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
By Mad Monk April 22 2009
After deriving incentive from the OSB, and having confessed to not having the master scribe’s knowledge of individual players, MadMonk has penned this “expletive deleted” preview which looks at the broader context of round 22 for your consideration.
After deriving incentive from the OSB, and having confessed to not having the master scribe’s knowledge of individual players, MadMonk has penned this “expletive deleted” preview which looks at the broader context of round 22 for your consideration.
The final round 21 game has been played, and it is all down to the final throw of the dice. You will probably not need to be reminded just how tight the top half of the table is. Apart from Leicester on 66 the second third and fourth positions are all on 61. Had Gloucester and Worcester followed the script (home/away form for second half of season) then Gloucester would have recorded the try bonus and Worcester left with nothing. As it happened Worcester tore up the form book and did the double over their local rivals who, after Sunday’s capitulation to Cardiff in the EDF final, were lucky to come away even with a losing bonus.
That is what makes this weekend so difficult to call. There is a curious symmetry in the fixtures this weekend. All are played simultaneously; top 6 are playing bottom 6. It could not have been more dramatic if it had been stage managed. The obvious interest for London Irish is
a) will we make the play-off?
b) who will we play, and where?
Leicester would have to lose spectacularly at home to relegated Bristol to be knocked off the top spot on points difference, and then only if Quins get a try bonus against Newcastle whose away form has improved remarkably as the season progressed. Barring this most bizarre of mathematical improbabilities the fight is going to be between Quins, Bath, and London Irish to decide who will get the second coveted home semi slot. There is no doubt that through the green tinted glasses of London Irish, fourth and a trip to the Walkers Stadium (Welford Road is a building site at present) is the least attractive of options for an extension to our season. A home tie with Quins would be better than a trip to the Stoop, but then we have beaten our local rivals twice there this season so it holds fewer fears than a trip “up north”.
There is an interesting struggle below the first four regarding Heineken Cup qualification. If Bourgoin lift the ECC then Saints, Sarries, Wasps, even Newcastle are all in with a shout for HC qualification which will influence their team selection.
So what of our match against Worcester? On paper, the Warriors, along with Bristol are the only teams with nothing to gain from the results of the final league game, but it would be dangerous to count on them either to be still recovering from Tuesday’s heroic win at Castle Grim, or keeping key troops in reserve to be fresh for the ECC semi in France the following weekend. The form book would suggest the following results:
Bath v Saracens: Bath by 10 (no try bonus)
Harlequins v Newcastle: Harlequins by 5 (no try bonus)
Leicester v Bristol: Leicester by 18 with try bonus.
Wasps v Gloucester: Wasps by 4 (no try bonus)
Sale v Northampton: Sale by 8 (no try bonus)
Which brings us to our match against Worcester. Worcester’s recent record at home, combined with our comparatively disappointing performance on the road would have Worcester edging it by a single point. That is why we have to rip up the form book. Thanks to Worcester on Tuesday night our customary losing bonus on the road would be enough to secure us a trip to the Walkers Stadium where, barring the most extraordinary turn round, our season hits the buffers. A win is not enough, we have to do what we have not done this season, we have to secure a try bonus on the road. That should get us a home playoff against Harlequins.
That is what makes this weekend so difficult to call. There is a curious symmetry in the fixtures this weekend. All are played simultaneously; top 6 are playing bottom 6. It could not have been more dramatic if it had been stage managed. The obvious interest for London Irish is
a) will we make the play-off?
b) who will we play, and where?
Leicester would have to lose spectacularly at home to relegated Bristol to be knocked off the top spot on points difference, and then only if Quins get a try bonus against Newcastle whose away form has improved remarkably as the season progressed. Barring this most bizarre of mathematical improbabilities the fight is going to be between Quins, Bath, and London Irish to decide who will get the second coveted home semi slot. There is no doubt that through the green tinted glasses of London Irish, fourth and a trip to the Walkers Stadium (Welford Road is a building site at present) is the least attractive of options for an extension to our season. A home tie with Quins would be better than a trip to the Stoop, but then we have beaten our local rivals twice there this season so it holds fewer fears than a trip “up north”.
There is an interesting struggle below the first four regarding Heineken Cup qualification. If Bourgoin lift the ECC then Saints, Sarries, Wasps, even Newcastle are all in with a shout for HC qualification which will influence their team selection.
So what of our match against Worcester? On paper, the Warriors, along with Bristol are the only teams with nothing to gain from the results of the final league game, but it would be dangerous to count on them either to be still recovering from Tuesday’s heroic win at Castle Grim, or keeping key troops in reserve to be fresh for the ECC semi in France the following weekend. The form book would suggest the following results:
Bath v Saracens: Bath by 10 (no try bonus)
Harlequins v Newcastle: Harlequins by 5 (no try bonus)
Leicester v Bristol: Leicester by 18 with try bonus.
Wasps v Gloucester: Wasps by 4 (no try bonus)
Sale v Northampton: Sale by 8 (no try bonus)
Which brings us to our match against Worcester. Worcester’s recent record at home, combined with our comparatively disappointing performance on the road would have Worcester edging it by a single point. That is why we have to rip up the form book. Thanks to Worcester on Tuesday night our customary losing bonus on the road would be enough to secure us a trip to the Walkers Stadium where, barring the most extraordinary turn round, our season hits the buffers. A win is not enough, we have to do what we have not done this season, we have to secure a try bonus on the road. That should get us a home playoff against Harlequins.
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StumbleuponPremiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: The Craic www.londonirish.org (IP Logged)
Date: 22/04/2009 21:02
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Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: JamesC (IP Logged)
Date: 22/04/2009 22:52
I look forward to the match report on Saturdsay evening
Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: Props are not stupid (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2009 08:34
How many sleeps left? 
Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: exileray (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2009 17:31
let's get up there, get the 5 points, and get out
fat bloke green shirt.
fat bloke green shirt.
Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: AndytheHat (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2009 07:28
JamesC -
Given that ClassyBird has volunteered to do the match report, and as she says on another thread, she's camping, I have a hunch that there won't be a report on here by saturday evening!
Given that ClassyBird has volunteered to do the match report, and as she says on another thread, she's camping, I have a hunch that there won't be a report on here by saturday evening!
Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: MadMonk (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2009 07:42
Laptop and mobile broadband?
well given track record on phones, pens and notepads perhaps not...
(we love you really classy!)
well given track record on phones, pens and notepads perhaps not...
(we love you really classy!)
Re: Premiership Goes Down to the Wire
Posted by: Classy Bird (IP Logged)
Date: 26/04/2009 19:42
Outrageous MM! I'll have u know I had notebook, pen and even the photos to prove it 
the report has been submitted and we only got back this afternoon. Great weekend!
the report has been submitted and we only got back this afternoon. Great weekend!
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