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To describe the Madeira Island Open as low key is perhaps an understatement and it would be interesting to poll all the US journalists at this week's World Golf Championship event in Florida and see how many realise it's going on. I'd set the spread below five.

However, it does have its place on the calendar and past winners include Mark James, Swedish Ryder Cup stars Jarmo Sandelin and Niclas Fasth and Bradley Dredge. Last year there were emotional scenes as Jean Van de Velde emerged the winner - his first victory since his famous collapse at Carnoustie in 1999.

That win actually drops a big hint about the sort of players who do well here. Van de Velde and Fasth are both Open runners-up while James was a top five finisher in four Opens and made the top 30 in no less than 13.

Those who appreciate links conditions are at a definite advantage in this event as the short Santo Serra course is right next to the sea and exposed to winds off the Atlantic.

As well as the Open, there are several other tournaments which act as useful pointers.

For example, the recent New Zealand Open at Gulf Harbour was played on a linksy cliff-top course with gusty winds while past form in the Dutch and Irish Opens is also relevant given the type of courses they've been played on.

This isn't a foolproof method of course but it gives us a handle on an event which, on first glance, looks like a needle in a haystack job.

One name who keeps cropping up in events played by the sea is Christian Cevaer.

A quick trawl through the Frenchman's results from last season shows that all his good finishes came in tournaments with connections to this one.

He was 11th in this event, 16th in the nearby Open de Portugal, 15th in the Nissan Irish Open and fourth in the KLM Open. The Irish Open was played at the Montgomerie course - a windy inland links - while the KLM took place at Zandvoort on a short, linksy course exposed to the winds.

"In general I like tough conditions because those conditions can help you be more effective with your short game," said Cevaer at the Irish Open.

The short game is certainly Cevaer's strength. He was top of the Putts Per Round stats in 2004 and 2005, fourth in 2006 and is currently 16th this year. And he always shows up well in the Scrambling stats too.

He's only played four events in 2007 but his results show a 29th in Abu Dhabi, a 27th in the Malaysian Open and a tied 11th last time out in Indonesia. He puts that promising start down to a change of irons and ball.

As well as his 11th in this event last year he was also eighth in 1998 so at 50/1 the 2004 Canarias Open de España winner looks a good bet to become the second successive French winner.

It's no surprise to see Dredge at the front of the market give his past win here and he took the scalp of Ernie Els in the Accenture Match Play Championship in Tucson.

But he's finished 62nd and 65th in his only two strokeplay events this season and may still be a little rusty given his lack of golf in 2007.

Second favourite David Lynn does look one to watch though.

The Englishman's last five starts in this event have produced two sevenths, an 18th, a 21st and a 39th and he has an excellent bank of form on other links-type courses.

That includes a win and two subsequent top tens at the Dutch Open and a fourth at the 2003 Irish Open at Portmarnock. Add in a fifth and an eighth in two recent Portuguese Opens and he's definitely got a liking for this part of the world too.

Lynn arrives in Madeira in fine form after a fourth place in the Singapore Masters last time and an 11th in Qatar and he's also top of the Scrambling stats in 2007 which should stand him in good stead for those approach shots which are inevitably blown off course.

It's about time the Wigan supporter added to his single Euro Tour win and this gives him an excellent chance.

Ireland's Peter Lawrie is still looking for his first Tour win but, despite his surprisingly modest record here, I still think this could be a good event for him.

Lawrie was an encouraging tied 14th on his debut in 2000 but since then he's missed two cuts and finished down the field (tied 57th) on his last visit in 2005.

But a sixth at last year's KLM Open and a 12th at the New Zealand Open shows he can flourish in similar conditions.

Lawrie had missed four straight cuts at the start of 2007 but found some form on his most recent start at the Singapore Masters where he finished eighth.

The 2003 Rookie of the Year has an excellent chance to build on that here and he's a sporting price at 66/1.

Some will see this as not much more competitive than a Challenge Tour event in which case Edoardo Molinari must enter the frame.

The young Italian leads the Challenge Tour Order of Merit after winning two of the first four events this season - the Club Colombia Masters in February and the Kenya Open a fortnight ago.

Having captured the US Amateur Championship last year - the first European to do so since 1911 - this guy clearly knows how to win and if he gets into contention he will be a serious threat.

The only worry I have is that I'm backing the wrong Molinari.

Younger brother Francesco won last year's Italian Open and, unlike Edoardo, has played this course before and played it well. He finished 22nd on debut in 2005 and 15th last year.

Add in his promising 14th in the Singapore Masters last time and, to be honest, why aren't I backing him.

Well, if one Molinari can play well at Madeira, there's no reason why the other can't and having started his Challenge Tour career with two wins in four starts I just feel that the force is with Edoardo.

The 50/1 could look very silly.

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By Bettingzone.co.uk - Used with permission.

A GUARANTEED PROFIT ON ISRAEL v ENGLAND

England travel to Isreal for a critical European Championship qualifier on Saturday. It's a 6.30pm kick-off and we can guarantee you a profit on the match, whatever the result.

We must point out that if you want to take this bet, you should do it now because if the odds change, then the figures here will be invalidated. If they have changed, let us know and we will rework the bet for you.

You won't be able to do this if you already have accounts with either of the bookies we are using for this bet but if that is the case, mail us, let us know which accounts you have and we'll send you an alternative bet.

We're going to lay out a total of £75.75 on the Israel v England match and we will collect £97.50 if the game is drawn and £112.50 if the game is not drawn.

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LAY the draw at Betfair with £25.00. Your liability (what you lose if your bet doesn't come in) on this bet is £63.75.

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You have temporarily laid out a total of £75.75. I stress, temporarily... Now sit back, crack a beer open and enjoy the match.

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If it's a draw, you will collect £97.50 from Coral.

If it's not a draw, you will collect £87.50 from Betfair . The balance in your Betfair acount will now be £112.50, including your £25.00 cashback.

5. This means that the worst case scenario on the Israel v England match is the game is drawn and you make £23.75 profit. But if it is a draw, you make £38.75 profit.

6. It is absolutely vital that you click on the links on this page to open the accounts with the three bookies and enter the correct bonus/promotional codes or you may not qualify for the bonuses.

Also, before you place your bets, you should check that the odds haven't changed. If they have, let us know and we will rework the bet for you.

Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions at all about this bet and we will come straight back to you.

Please note that the free bets and bonuses are valid for new customers only so if you already have an account with one or more of the bookies we are using, you won't be able to do this. If that is the case, contact us and we'll mail you an alternative bet using different bookies.

This method of betting was used very successfully during the World Cup and you can read all about how it was done right here.

We guarantee this bet

It's understandable that some people will not believe that it is possible to do this. "What's the catch?" I hear you asking. My answer to that question is that we have been publishing arbitrage bets for three seasons now and literally hundreds of people have profited from following the advice on these pages.

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