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Recent Toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2006: £2,062.30
2005: £573.50

Average Toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £1,317.90

2.00 The Howard Johnson team is under something of a cloud as I write before the opening day of the meeting was contested, but having saddled a winner and a placed horse via just three runners in the last ten years, I have to offer up TIDAL BAY as having a chance from an anorak's perspective. Eddie O'Grady is another trainer who has faired well with his runners in this event down the years, and CATCH ME is hoping to earn connections a cheque of some description as two of Eddie's three runners have managed before.

That said, a fellow Irish raider ARAN CONCERTO is likely to go off at restricted odds here, especially with Tony McCoy in the saddle to attract English money as well as the Euros from across the water. SILVERBURN looks a bigger threat to the Irish raiders than four-year-old RASLAN via the vintage stats listed below.

Ten year trends:

Vintage stats:

4-Y-O: 0-0-11 (0/11)
5-Y-O: 3-5-44 (8/52)
6-Y-O: 6-10-66 (16/82)
7-Y-O: 1-4-28 (5/33)
8-Y-O: 0-1-9 (1/10)
9-Y-O: 0-0-1 (0/1)

Fate of the favourites: 11 rep'tives-4 winners-3 placed-4 unplaced

Three of the last four favourites have finished second (aggregate losing distance of 4 lengths). Last year's beaten favourite (runner up Denman) was the first Paul Nicholls raider (unplaced at 33/1)in this race since 2002 no other runners from the yard in the last ten years).

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2.35 People are currently asking which of the Paul Nicholls runners will prove to be the best winner during the week, namely Denman or Kauto Star. I have refused to become involved in the argument because at the time of writing, I consider Kauto Star's jumping to be a liability and he is not a certain winner in my book, whereas DENMAN will surely take the beating here. Unbeaten in his four steeplechases to date, it's worth looking at the recent Jonjo O'Neill interview again, because the genial Irishman still refuses to believe that DENMAN beat Jonjo's Don't Push It when the pair met here at Cheltenham back in November.

People who describe yours truly as an 'stats anorak' will not be surprised to learn that it is a hurdle race last year that best sums up Denman's chance here. Paul Nicholls simply does not run many horses (Denman was the only the second in ten years) in the opening race on day two of the meeting (what was the Sun Alliance hurdle) and the fact the he saddled DENMAN in that race told us that he considered the horse as a future champion (given his skinny price) over a distance of ground. Beaten by Nicanor that day, Paul didn't offer any excuses (straight down the middle sort of chap) but had that confident look about him that suggested that DENMAN would come here and win in 2007, and that victory is on the cards now. Paul has saddled six horses in the race during the last decade, including a winner (Star De Mohaison twelve months ago) and third placed Cornish Rebel the previous year.

The Pipe stable has snared four place prizes via eleven raiders during the last decade and DOM D'ORGEVAL could add to the tally, whilst Willie Mullins will be quietly confident of turning over the favourite with SNOWY MORNING. Willie has saddled two winners and a placed horse from just five representatives during the study period and Mick Fitzgerald will be hoping to repeat his effort when riding Trabolgan to victory in this contest two years ago.

Ten year trends:

Vintage stats:

5-Y-O: 1-2-2 (3/5)
6-Y-O: 1-7-11 (8/19)
7-Y-O: 6-8-42 (14/56)
8-Y-O: 2-3-20 (5/25)
9-Y-O: 0-0-10 (0/10)
10-Y-O: 0-0-4 (0/4)
11-Y-O: 0-0-2 (0/2)

Note: 5--6--7-year-olds: 8 winners-17 places-55 unplaced runners (25/80)

Others: 2 winners-3 placed horses-36 unplaced runners (5/41)

Fate of the favourites: 10 rep'tives-1 winner-4 placed-5 unplaced

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3.15 Readers with long memories will know that I am not jumping on the current bandwagon that suggests that WELL CHIEF is a good thing to win the Champion Chase. I suggested that he would win his recent Newbury race in a hack canter, bearing in mind that this is arguably the best two-mile steeplechaser England has produced in a very long time. Azertyuiop aside, WELL CHIEF is the only English horse to have been rated in the high one-seventies in recent times and who knows, we may not have seen the best of Martin Pipe's raider yet. The enforced break might have done the horse the world of good from a long term perspective, and if any horse is going to dominate the two mile chases over the next year or two it is the Night Shift gelding.

Timmy Murphy is almost the ideal partner as WELL CHIEF is better when being switched off for while in his races, conserving his impressive speed for when it matters late doors. It should not be forgotten how WELL CHIEF simply possessed too much pace for Kicking King when they duelled over the last and up the Cheltenham hill when Pipe's raider prevailed in the 'Arkle' here in 2004. WELL CHIEF had previously finished second in the Triumph Hurdle in 2003 when beaten in a photo finish and the drying ground will be in his favour.

Respectfully, there is no horse within a dozen lengths of Moscow Flyer and/or Azertyuiop by way of opposition here, albeit that last year's winner NEWMILL and the 'Arkle' hero of twelve months past VOY POR USTEDES will receive plenty of support. The type of horses beaten last year (Foreman, Central House and Fota Island are (respectfully) not in the same parish as 'Moscow' or Azertyuiop and barring an accident, bookmakers might as well be betting on the distance here if the Pipe raider is on song.

The going seems to have (ironically) gone against NICKNAME, though DEMPSEY is the one runner in the race that might not have fulfilled his potential as yet, and his winning effort at Sandown last time out offers hope for each way supporters here.

Ten year trends:

Vintage stats:

6-Y-O: 0-2-3 (2/5)
7-Y-O: 2-2-4 (4/8)
8-Y-O: 3-5-18 (8/26)
9-Y-O: 2-5-21 (7/28)
10-Y-O: 2-3-12 (5/17)
11-Y-O: 1-1-7 (2/9)
12-Y-O: 0-0-1 (0/1)

Fate of the favourites: 10 rep'tives-3 winners-2 placed-5 unplaced

Note: Last year's winner Newmill was the first scorer from outside of the front three in the betting for seven years in a race that was unusually marred by fallers. Six of last years twelve strong field failed to complete the course, the same number that had previously taken four renewals to equal.

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4.00 The weight and vintage stats are against the top weight EMOTIONAL MOMENT, though it's worth noting that Tom Taafe's raider has already finished fourth and fifth in this event, before contesting the World Hurdle in each of the last two years. The fact that EMOTIONAL MOMENT was sent off at 16/1 and 22/1 for Thursday's feature event is testament to his chances here, whilst I'm hoping for a better price than the 7/1 and 12/1 returns in this race to date.

Philip Hobbs has saddled two winners and a placed horse via just eight raiders during the study period, and whilst the popular trainer saddles two horses this time around, course and distance winner OSCATELLO appears to be the pick of the pair. NATION STATE and DUSKY LORD appear to be the pick of the runners down towards the foot of the handicap, though BURNTOAKBOY cannot be entirely discounted, especially if Sam Jones can call upon all five pounds of his claim.

Five-year-olds have a decent record of late as you can see below, and MISTER HIGHT also enters the overnight equation.

Ten year trends:

Vintage stats:

5-Y-O: 1-5-37 (6/43)
6-Y-O: 3-10-66 (13/79)
7-Y-O: 3-9-55 (12/67)
8-Y-O: 2-4-33 (6/39)
9-Y-O: 1-1-24 (2/26)
10-Y-O: 0-1-8 (1/9)
11-Y-O: 0-0-1 (0/1)
13-Y-O: 0-0-1 (0/1)

Note: 5-6-7-8-year olds: 9 winners-28 placed-191 unplaced (37/228-16.2%)

Others: 1 winner-2 placed-34 unplaced (3/37-8.1%)

Five-year-olds claimed four of the first five positions twelve months ago (including the winner and the runner up at 11/1 & 25/1) via just seven representatives.

Weight trends: Eight of the last ten winners have carried 11-0 or less.

Fate of the favourites: 10 rep'tives-1 winner-2 placed-7 unplaced

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4.40 DIRECT FLIGHT emerges from the stats with a realistic each way chance here if you add the weight and vintage figures into consideration. That said, LIBERTHINE is likely to take some kicking out of the frame, as Nicky Henderson has saddled two winners and two placed horses via eleven raiders in the last ten years.

Sam Waley-Cohen remains good value for his three pound claim, facts which all add up to a favourites chance in my book. Charlie Mann also has a good record in the contest having saddled both his runners to date to reach the frame, and the yard's representative NADOVER completes my trio against the field.

Ten year trends:

Vintage stats:
5-Y-O: 0-0-3 (0/3)
6-Y-O: 0-4-6 (4/10)
7-Y-O: 1-3-33 (4/37)
8-Y-O: 3-5-41 (8/49)
9-Y-O: 4-10-26 (14/40)
10-Y-O: 2-2-22 (4/26)
11-Y-O: 0-3-22 (3/25)
12-Y-O: 0-0-10 (0/10)
13-Y-O: 0-1-4 (1/5)

Note: 8-9-10-year-olds: 9 winners-17 placed-89 unplaced (26/115-22.6%)

Others: 1 winner-11 placed-78 unplaced (12/90-13.3%)

Weight trends: 11-3 or more: 2 winners-7 placed-31 unplaced (9/40-22.5%)

11-2 or less: 8 winners-21 placed-136 unplaced (29/165-17.6%)

Fate of the favourites: 11 representatives-1 winner-4 placed-6 unplaced

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5.20 The last four-year-old winner was Dato Star back in 1995, though it's fair to say that this year's vintage representatives look a decent bunch of recruits. There are no less than ten vintage representatives this time around and likes of ONE GULP and FIDDLING AGAIN should run well for their respective connections. Paul Webber knows the time of day in this sector of the sport, and Swaythe was a 17/2 winner of a similar event at Sandown on Saturday, the Swain mare having been entered for this event initially. Paul now saddles ONE GULP and Andrew Tinkler's mount is not without a chance at potentially rewarding odds.

Swaythe had been beaten three lengths by FIDDLING AGAIN on his penultimate start; hence the Sandown victory was a boost for the Nicky Henderson raider. The last two six-year-old scorers ended a run of eight consecutive five-year-old winners, and the pick of the vintage this time around could prove to be TOT O'WHISKEY and LODGE LANE, though a victory for Carl Llewellyn's DEN OF INIQUITY would be icing on the cake for the trainer after a fabulous first year at then helm having taken over Mark Pitman's yard. TOT O'WHISKEY represents Malcolm Jefferson, and as far as my records suggest, this is the trainer's first runner since saddling Dato Star to victory twelve years ago.

LODGE LANE was a thoroughly convincing winner at Uttoxeter, though I'm not sure the drying ground will be to his advantage, though Vic Dartnell must be champing at the bit to train a winner of this race following the disappointment of Karanja two years ago that unseated Nina Carberry at the start. The prep race leading into this event that could determine the outcome however, could well turn out to be the clash between ARANLEIGH and MAD FISH when the two raiders finished a distance clear of their rivals at Fairyhouse in January.

ARANLEIGH finished five lengths clear of MAD FISH in that event on heavy ground, though it's worth noting that the Mullins raider was a 4/7 chance on the day and I doubt there will be much between the pair now. Willie has saddled five winners and two placed horses down the years and MAD FISH might just improve the ratio again here. If any of you doubt the adage that suggests that horses that run in the Championship Bumper can be backed with confidence in future races should take note of one startling statistic that yours truly has unearthed. It is a general rule of thumb that suggests around two thirds of thoroughbreds never win a race having set foot on a racecourse.

No less than eighty one per cent of the three hundred and twenty eight horses that have contested the Championship Bumper to date have gone on to win at least one race. There endeth the sermon, aside from the well known fact that informs us that Irish trained horses have won eleven of the fourteen contests to date.

FOURTEEN year trends (entire history of the race):

Vintage stats:

4-Y-O: 2-8-56 (10/66-15.1%)
5-Y-O: 9-14-151 (23/174-13/2%)
6-Y-O: 3-6-79 (9/88-10.2%)

Fate of the favourites: 14 rep'tives-3 winners-6 placed-5 unplaced

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By Bettingzone.co.uk - Used with permission.

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