The Pre Post Mortem

By The Rouge

 A tough fixture against West Brom looms on the horizon and with two games to go the Royals have very slim chances of gaining a play-off place.  In this division, you can never be sure of other results but at the risk of this article looking stupid in six days time, I will predict that Crystal Palace and Ipswich will get the necessary points to be ahead of us at the end of the season and that realistically means we would have to overtake Wigan and West Ham and rely on a less than perfect end of the season for Sheffield United to get there.  With Wigan playing West Ham on the last day of the season we would probably need them to draw and to both get no better than a draw away to Forest and home to Watford respectively.  If all that happens then we just have the simple matter of beating 2^nd placed West Brom and in-form Watford.  Although, not all totally beyond the realms of possibility, you would have to say that Reading are about a 20/1 shot of reaching the play offs and then at best a 3/1 chance of going up.

 So barring the beautiful miracle of this 60/1 chance happening, Reading will just fall short of success this season.  So what will the post mortem say at the end of the season?  What has the missing ingredient been?

 The popular choice is to point to our defence and say we have conceded too many goals.  We have conceded 56 goals in the league to date, which is a fair few but still less than Crystal Palace and Ipswich (who are both above us) and only four more than Sheff Utd.  The difference is that these teams have scored 70, 82 and 61 goals respectively, compared to our 54.  So you could blame our strike-force or our midfield for carving out too few chances - but Wigan, West Ham and Sunderland have only scored 59, 62 and 58 respectively – hardly many more than us.

 You can chew the statistics all you like but every team in the current top six have either had a mean defence or potent strike-force, whereas we have not excelled in either discipline and let in more goals than we have scored.  (You could also argue we are lucky to be 8 points ahead of Stoke who have an identical goal difference to us.)

 One almost ever-present first team player recently revealed a few opinions to a friend of mine.  On our form this season he said ‘We have brought players in and on paper we should have a better team than last season but for some reason it hasn’t been that way.”  It’s hardly rocket science but entirely true.

 I feel that the squad we have now are superior to what we had last year.  Kitson and Owusu had under half a season with us, which is one possible reason we aren’t comfortably in the play-offs, but I am much happier with Forster, Goater, Kitson and Owusu as our strikers than Forster, Butler, Henderson and Cureton.  I did think there were times (particularly before Christmas) when we would have really benefited from having Cureton on the bench (I’m not going to get into that now!), but I think the future looks bright with these four plus Dean Morgan up our sleeve for next season.

 Ingimarsson and Newman have done well in defence but perhaps the one negative is that Brown has not been able to match his form or fitness of last season.  Brown was a great Alka-Seltzer to get over the Upson hangover last year and he and Williams largely ensured our 1-0 away victories continued.

 My post mortem for last year would have contained phrases such as: 

1. We had a mean defence for large sections of the season

2. Upson’s presence helped us to gain a fair few points.

3. We looked assured in our system, especially away from home.

4. We definitely rode our luck to secure so many 1-0 away wins.

5. We had the mental strength and belief that we would hang on to victories last year.

6. We were very lucky with injuries (until Fozzy’s in the play-offs) which didn’t expose our very thin squad.

7. We could not effectively play 4-4-2 when it mattered.

Points 2 and 4 are things we did not have this season and point 1 is something we did have but not in as many matches.  Point 7 is a problem we have eradicated now but point 3 was also a huge factor last season.  If you are looking for clues as to why we finished higher last season then I think points 5 and 6 are very pertinent.  I would say we have been a bit more negative after going one nil up than we were last season (this could be a deficiency in confidence after failing to string victories together) and Reading do miss Forster when protecting a lead as he does a lot of good work in the channels, he beats defenders to the ball and wins free kicks, throw-ins and corners further up the pitch.  Owusu and Kitson have been impressive in the same way recently, but (especially when Owusu is not on the pitch) we miss Forster’s threat of pace on the counter attack.  There are several reasons as to why we have not matched last season’s league position but injuries to key first team players has perhaps been the main reason.  Four of last season’s regulars in Forster, Shorey, Williams and Brown have been absent too many times and Phil Parkinson’s admission that Pardew built a very good but very thin squad has become more apparent.

 Points are gained over a season but assuming we do not reach the play-offs then fans will point to key matches in which we could have claimed essential points.  Some fans will point to the opening day fixture at Ipswich, some the 3-0 massacres by Palace and Wimbledon in our own back yard and some will just outline our failure to win points off those at the foot of the table.  Personally, I think the matches at the business end of the season stick in my mind and the 2-1 defeat at Bradford was a game that was very winnable but was a Sidwell-less below par performance, some ridiculous refereeing, Windass’ antics and the omission of a bit of luck condemned us to defeat.  That was followed up by the cruel Barry/Mulryne goal against Norwich to deliver an uphill task.

 Looking to next season, there have been many positives for Coppell.  Sidwell continues to be an inspiration and the season long form of Salako, Murty, Williams, Newman and Ingimarsson has been very good.  Harper, Kitson, Owusu and Ashdown have played very well in the last third of the season and despite being ineffective for large segments of games Goater’s clinical finishing has delivered 12 league goals despite being injured or a substitute for many matches.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Brooker will not be a good player for us next season if we did sign him, but Micky Adams is a fan of his and with Leicester looking like returning to Division 1, I would suggest that he would want to keep him and sell off some other players that will fetch a fee.

 Many managers talk about the value of a pre-season working with the players and shaping the team.  It may be that Coppell will want to get the team to play a slightly different way that he didn’t feel he could introduce mid-season.  Regardless of that possibility, Coppell has many choices to make in terms of his playing staff and possibly his backroom staff.  Murray and Tyson have perhaps surprisingly gone (incidentally, I think Coppell should be praised for his honest evaluation of these transfers and his communication with the fans has been excellent) and he has many decisions to make over contracts.  It is Coppell’s chance to finish shaping his team and perhaps get some players in that could make the difference.  Every fan has his favourites, but I would suggest it would be very hard to make progress next season without Sidwell, Forster and Murty playing in a Reading shirt next year.  Lets hope they are all here for the whole of next season.

 I think Reading is generally a happy camp, especially among the players, but there has been a whisper that everything I not entirely 100% between club and the playing staff.  I hope that Ashdown is retained as he has been brilliant in recent games and some first team players are a bit surprised that his contract has not been finalised already.  Salako has been somewhat duped on his contract terms and Forster has been vocal at not receiving a new contract offer.  You would think that Forster is a player we would keep if we did get to the Promised Land and the excuse of having to see where we end up this season is not one that will keep all players happy.  Sometimes I think clubs do not focus on what they will lose in terms of morale and commitment, when they think about the financial control they gain by waiting.  I am not suggesting that we should have all of our player contracts sorted out, as if we did get promoted we would have a crisis on our hands, but you have to build your team around your strongest players and ensure as few players as possible have negative feelings towards the football club.

 So it will be interesting to see what Coppell does.  He will no doubt let a few players go (which many will disagree with) to free up some squad places and finances to bring some people in, but that is partly what he is here for and he has a good track record in this department.  He may or may not change some of the backroom staff, but perhaps more importantly he will have some time to make any changes he wants.  I think it is unrealistic to expect a substantial close season transfer kitty but in Kitson, Morgan, Shorey, Sidwell, Ashdown and Harper we have several good young players in or around the first team.  In previous seasons our good young players have not quite proved good enough for the first team but with players such as Fashanu, Castle, Hayes, Catney and Henry winning rave reviews in the academy, the future does look bright for Reading.  It would be nice to see these players develop and be good enough to play for the first team and increase the ability and assets we have at this club.

 Whatever the outcome of these final two games, it will be an interesting pre-season and I think we can look back on the third most successful season for Reading with a certain amount of optimism.  I personally have a lot of sympathy for the fans of Leeds, Bradford, Wimbledon, Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton amongst others, for their financial and stadium plights, and without curtailing my hopes for promotion to the premiership and what Reading can achieve I am happy with the position of our club and the effort that our players have given week in week out.

 Lastly, I have faith in Steve Coppell as a manager.  I still think Alan Pardew was a good manager, but I have heard enough things after his departure to suggest that all was not quite as well as we thought it was during his end days.  Although his defection may have denied the club the best chance of promotion to the Premiership they have ever had, you have to concede that it is not a bad era to be a Reading fan and there is no reason not to look forward with optimism.

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