By Gambit - Jan 25, '03
January 26 2003

India has an unblemished record against Pakistan in the World Cup to date. Can they hope to keep that record untarnished in the match next month in South Africa during the Cricket World Cup 2003? An analysis of previous games, along with the latest factors which may affect this contest. The buildup and rivalry for the matchup between India and Pakistan easily surpasses that for the "Ashes" between Australia and England. While it has become increasingly clear over the decades that the Ashes are more an absurd mismatch than a match of skills between the traditional cricket rivals, the contest between the neighbors in the Indian subcontinent dwarfs the Ashes by huge orders of magnitude - whether in terms of the excitement it generates by cricket fans throughout the world, the sheer number of people watching (close to 1 billion people expected to follow next month's match live), the quality of the contest, or the revenue generated from it. On March 1 2003, they will meet once again on the cricket field after more than two years, since an embargo on matches between the two teams was first enforced by India due to political tensions.

India has won all 3 of its matchups against Pakistan on the biggest stage in cricket. Two World Cup matches were played away (outside of the subcontinent), and one in India. On every occasion, India has won the toss and elected to bat first each time. Clearly, this was a good decision all three times. Pakistan, the perennial bad chasers, failed to reach the target each time.

Next month though, if India win the toss, they would be in a dilemma. During 2002 -- a successful ODI year for them -- of the 19 games they won, 12 came when chasing a target. Of the 13 games they lost, 7 defeats came after batting first. India have gained a reputation as good chasers over the past year, and this will play on Ganguly's mind if he wins the toss.

In India's victories over Pakistan, they made 216 runs at Sydney, Australia in 1992 (Sachin Tendulkar 54), 287 at Bangalore in 1996 (Navjot Singh Sidhu 93), and 227 at Manchester, England in 1999. Apart from Bangalore, which saw a Jadeja blitzkrieg towards the end of the innings, India have not crossed 230.

In India and England, the India number 7 batsman was the wicketkeeper. In Australia, it would be fair to say the keeper came in at 9 because India had a deep batting order with both Kapil Dev and Manoj Prabhakar in their ranks. Next month in South Africa however, the number 7 position should be held by a specialist batsman if India are to field the same batting lineup which brought them much success in 2002.

At Bangalore, India lost their 5th wicket at 148 and ended up at 216/7. At Sydney, they lost their 5th wicket at 226 and got to 287/8 (thanks to some awesome clean hitting by Ajay Jadeja). At Manchester, they lost their 5th wicket at 218 and got to only 227/6. Barring the Jadeja knock, the number 7 batsman on down hasn't got going for India. This time, they will have a significant edge in that department.

The Indian openers had a successful (50+) opening stand only once, in Bangalore, where Sachin Tendulkar and Navjot Sidhu raised 90 runs. This time, the explosive and in-form Virender Sehwag -- who warned earlier this month that he has yet to face a bowler whom he respects -- and Sourav Ganguly, easily one of the best ODI batsmen in the world, loom as major threats for the Pakistani pacemen.

Apart from 1992 in India, when India lost 4 of its wickets to spinners, it has been the Pakistani pace attack which did most of the damage. In the 1999 World Cup match in England, the only Pakistani spinner to bowl, Saqlain Mushtaq, went wicketless for an expensive 67 in his 10-over spell. However, the Indian middle order has been Pakistan's nemesis in all three matches, taking the game away each time -- and this time, it looks stronger than ever before, buoyed by none other than the world's best-ever ODI batsman, as the original Master Blaster comes in at number 4 to hammer bowlers who have likely already been demoralized by big hitting from the top of the order.

On to the bowling. Apart from the Bangalore match where spinners took an equal share of wickets, Indian pacemen have brought Pakistani batsmen down. They took 6 wickets between them in 1992; 4 in 1996; and 8 in 1999 (3 to Javagal Srinath, 5 to Venkatesh Prasad).

It would be fair to say that Pakistan have struggled against the Indian pace bowling in every World Cup when chasing. Pakistan recorded their highest score chasing against India in a World Cup match at Bangalore, making 248. In 1992 they were bowled out for 173, and in 1999 for 180. None of these matches have been even close. This time around, their batting lineup may be at its weakest compared to their previous campaigns, and no experienced batsman has struck good form to lead the inexperienced into what will be a high pressure encounter.

Indian fans' hearts were aflutter in 1996 when Aamir Sohail and Saaed Anwar got going and made 84 in 10.1 overs, but apart from that Pakistan have not had a good opening stand.

Based on the history so far, if India win the toss and bat first, they will feel safe with a score around or above 230-40, and would be favored to go on to win.

This time India will also be playing at least 3 specialist, genuinely quick pacemen, of whom Javagal Srinath has lately been bowling more like McGrath than McGrath himself, aggressive Zaheer Khan is shaping up as one of the top fast bowlers in international cricket, and Ashish Nehra has been sending down high pace swing. This could spell even more trouble for Pakistan than in the past on the helpful SA tracks.

Based on history, Pakistan should not play a spinner for this game, as that could prove costly both in terms of runs and lack of wickets. If Pakistan wins and bats first, and goes on to score more than 220, the match could go either way given the quality of the Pakistani fast bowling, in particular Shoaib Akhtar. The two legendary W's (Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis) are on the wane but can be expected to put it all on the line for this event. Mohammed Sami has been erratic of late.

The records of the two teams on Centurion Park, where the Pool match between them will be played, are similar. India have played 3 matches at Centurion Park, winning two (both against RSA) and losing 1. Pakistan have an identical record there, with a win each over RSA and Sri Lanka, and one loss to RSA. India will want to make it 3-1 at Centurion and 4-0 against Pakistan, while Pakistan would be keen to get the monkey off their back and beat India for the first time on the big stage.

Don't bet until after the toss!